HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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In that case no one is getting real accumulations with this storm.
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How do we define real accumulations? I think at least 1-3 inches is pretty likely for most of the subforum, I'm tempted to say 3-6 between I80 and I84 but not sure still on the mid level warming.
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Normally I think it would reasonable to assume what NYC gets would be similar to a little south of I78 in NJ but this system is more latitude dependent than longitude so NYC should fair better than south of I78 in NJ.
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And before we get any sun angle posts the bulk of the heavy stuff falls between 1 am and 7 am so no concerns about that with this one.
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If it's mainly sleet thats going to be a lot of sleet!
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The 12Z Euro is probably the best case scenario you're getting for NYC with this setup. I guess it could trend better but hard to see it unless the primary dies even quicker.
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I wonder if this storm being more SE is shunting the Sunday storm more SE, either way I'd take the trade off because who knows what would have happened with that one.
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As they say in the SNE forum we snow and ice.
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Unfortunately I don't have paid site for Euro so no.
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Euro is 1.1 qpf all frozen for northern parts of NYC wow.
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Didn't realize it flipped back to snow at the end, full run totals
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Snowier
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As with every setup like this it usually trends more so snow or sleet to rain near the coast. However we did already have one ZR event this winter and we have a 1040+ high so its possible.
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Looks pretty dry on the models for the next two weeks but I know that can change.
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Hence the sleet and snow precip type description. The maps don't really depict mixing precip types.
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A pingfest is still better than a washout IMO.
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Ok looking at that map I think it trended a bit north actually but the sleet line trended south.
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Unfortunately it doesn't have precip type maps or soundings but at hour 72 looks like all layers above 700 feet are below freezing from Bronx/Manhattan northward.
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Ukie looks even further south of 0Z
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Is it true that the Ukie 10:1 pivotal maps count sleet as snow?
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Didn't both the Ukie and Euro show over 4 inches of snow for your area at 0Z lol.
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Same with Northern NYC vs Southern NYC, wouldn't be surprised if north of the Cross Bronx is pingling for hours while JFK is pouring.
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Models still struggling with this, CMC and GFS look nothing like each other for NYC/LI. Your area there is pretty solid agreement because I think CMC is overdoing the mid level warmth a bit.
