HVSnowLover

HRRR changes every run but there is potential for northern parts of the city/lower Westchester to stay mainly frozen with this. This run doesn't push the freezing line past the Bronx until 15z (10:00 am).

This could have gone worse and become a ZR threat It runs every hour. I was referring before to 23z being warmer than 22z.

0Z was colder than 23z.

Temps seem a bit lower than expected and precip comes in like a wall so should be favorable for wet bulbing.

I could easily see just snow to rain for Eastern LI. I am almost sure North Shore of Central and Eastern LI will get more snow than NYC with this but the city may hang onto frozen precip a little longer.

Latest HRRR is almost no ZR. Looks like just sleet and rain.

Latest HRRR looks warmer again.

TBH just model hugging but HRRRR says we start about 1 am.

For where?

It seems that way, I'm not sure about south but definitely better east lol it seems either Jersey Coast to Eastern LI to Boston is one prime zone for the big blizzards and then you have to get either north of I84 or west of the I87/I84 intersection to hit the next area that sees good snow. Central and Eastern NE seem like such a sweet spot to live because they get hammered by coastals and can get hit hard by SWFE as well.

What happened to the Benchmark tracks? It seems everything is either cutters, cross country storms running inland, or storms tracking east of the benchmark lately.

The latest HRRR was a little more promising but we'll see. For IMBY 1-2 inches of sleet/snow cement and staying mostly frozen feels would be a win with this.

Agree with all this and the difference between wet bulbing to 28/29 vs 31 will be huge especially in northern parts of the city where the colder air would be harder to scour out as fast.

HRRR did pretty good with precip types on the 1/16 event so thats the model I'm looking at most from here on out.

The HRRR has it up to 32 anywhere SE of the Tappan Zee Bridge by 6 am and also has it to 32 close to 287 in NJ so not sure where things are trending colder anywhere at the surface.

Not saying its definitely right but HRRR has most of NYC as rain already by 11z (6 am).

The low levels have definitely not trended colder. Central Park was not getting plain rain on yesterdays models.

I've learned on this forum upper Manhattan/Bronx are not considered the coast by many on here but they are surrounded by concrete so take it for what is worth.

It's not really true that this was a never going to be an event for NYC. Even as of yesterday most models had NYC mostly sleetstorm. The storm is tracking too far north now and the high is weaker and displaced. Amazing how it could trend so bad in 24 hours but not amazing at the same time knowing how these trend. I am not sure yet about the ZR threat inland because surface doesn't look that cold and my guess is the areas far enough north to be in the 20s will be mostly sleet but I guess you know you area best if you can accreete well at 30 degrees.

HRRR says best chance of wet bulbing and brief mix or change to snow would be around 3 am or so tonight but even that is probably more so only for Northern parts of NYC/North Shore LI and north of NYC.

Maybe not 40 but several models are now spiking temps to mid 30s well inland, mostly after precip ends but still the small ice accretion will melt fast. Sleet woulda lasted a bit longer because its thick.

I hope this is the right space for venting but Im starting to get really really sick of NYC area weather. Tired of seeing every blizzard go SE and every marginal event be junk and tired of every summer night above 70 and humid. I hope to be able to move in a few years.

Im not too excited for ZR after expecting sleet all week. Also temps go up to upper 30s/40 tomorrow so any ZR will melt immediately. I'd almost rather plain rain at this point if not snow/sleet

I was never expecting much snow but would have been perfectly satisfied with a sleet storm.

This storm has been another exhausting one to track, what a waste of time and now looking like mostly rain LI/NYC (Although still not sure how warm the surface will really warm). Feel particularly bad for Ulster/Dutchess counties, south of their we knew it was dicey but this last minute trend may really shaft them.