HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Definitely taking a trip to at least Orange County if that verifies for 1 pm on Saturday.
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Its not snowing that hard here at all and it's sticking, it did flip to sleet around 12 for a little while, i'm honestly surprised it's sticking as it's 33 and I'm at the border of NYC.
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Rain/snow line looks to be southern NYC and southern LI right now.
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Snowing not that hard now but sticking to pavement, suprisingly for this time of day in March. Flake size got a lot smaller and actually looks more like winter out and less like a spring storm.
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CMC, GFS, and Euro all came east at 12Z. Euro is the furthest east right now.
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Euro made this more interesting for places NW of the city.
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It was like that here at around 11, now lightened up again. Dumped decently on colder surfaces during the burst but still nothing on paved surfaces.
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Giant flakes here right now.
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Starting to stick a bit on grass and car tops at Yonkers/Bronx border.
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Its honestly amazing how they do better than the whole rest of the region with every single storm.
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Ripping white rain out now
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It's only actually around 40 in the 5 boroughs, everywhere else is colder.
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HRRRR looks pretty lousy to me.
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Yea id say we need an inch on the ground by 9 am for this to overperform. Also precip coming in like a wall would lead to dynamic cooling (NAM has temps at 33, some models are like 36-38).
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Very much a needle threader as we need it to come north enough to get the heavy band allow dynamic cooling and precip rates for accumulating snow but stay south enough to keep the warm air aloft to the south and not flip to rain.
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Early to say folded but I don't think the weekend storm is our storm, setups like that don't usually do well near the coast.
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I think a factor would be how fast precip comes in, if you look at the last two runs of the HRRRR precip starting at 6 am vs 9 am makes a pretty big difference at this time of year.
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I agree with you on this storm and the ratios. Above freezing in daytime in March and precip not heavy.
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If it tracks near the BM it might be low warning level snow for the NW parts of the subforum, this thing is amped. However I would be cautious as Euro is furthest east model right now with this.
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Interesting model discrepancy with this less than 24 hours out. I'd say forecast based on climo with this one, white rain or mix in NYC and points South, 1-3 slushy inches NW of the city and maybe colder parts of LI.
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12Z Euro actually has track almost over the BM but it starts out warm due to the airmass.
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12z Euro is quite a weeny run for NW of the city combining tomorrow and Saturday
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March snow outside of big storms with cold airmass in place is hard to appreciate because if it snows at night its gone by the next day and if it snows during the day it doesn't stick.
