HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Actually the NAM along with the RGEM/CMC that best nailed that storm in terms of it being sleet and snow anywhere near the metro area.
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Depends for where in the subforum. For the interior parts the 12Z NAM and CMC are already a solid hit.
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We've fairly rarely had a track that the 12Z CMC is depicting in recent winters. My guess is it corrects back west and is an inland runner or trends even further east to the BM. But thats honestly just a guess based on recent storms.
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I disagree, we'll have plenty of strong rain and wind events in the spring/summer and fall. We won't get another chance for snow most likely until next winter so would rather have the snow in this case.
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Yep airmass matters. This looks like it may be a better track than the 1/16 event but that one started with an artic airmass and this one starts warm...
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I keep seeing that and still believe it but why are the models trending east, are they this bad?
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The GFS has the low over Boston, the NAM has it east of Cape Cod. That will make a big difference for the NW Crew......
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At this point I'd still focus more on track than exact thermals. If the low goes east of LI i'd say your area has a good chance. You want to be NW of the dry slot to have a chance at significant snow.
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Yea its hard to buy in to the colder solutions until the CMC/RGEM get on board.
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I think the metrics still say Euro is the best model but eyeballing it it seems like the CMC has been the strongest this winter overall.
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I wonder that too actually in this day in age why we know all the trends that models can't sniff out ahead of time.
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Complete slop now but looks like a solid 1.5 inches accumulated on colder surfaces, maybe even a bit more.
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I said this with the SWFE ice event a few weeks ago, these storms trend west under 48 hours so we need a significant east shift in the next 24 hours to think this could be anything. Right now I'm not seeing anything that would indicate this is a threat near NYC.
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Yea I could see places like Western Ulster County doing well with this but east of the Hudson will be way harder with this.
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Didn't they do decently with the last storm that was sleet/zr here or not that great? I know Albany did decently with that storm.
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HRRRR has precip until 7 pm which would mean a little after sundown.
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Agree I don't think I've ever seen a storm with this look 3 days out turn into an I95 snowstorm. I'm still tracking though because it does look like an exciting storm and any flakes in March is better than none.
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This is not a NYC storm but would be nice to see the HV cash in finally but right now agree with HeadintheClouds you want to be Binghamton to Albany with this one.
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Radar still looks pretty active right now so maybe just a dry slot?
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Aren't you right on the south shore near the Queens border? Thats basically same climo as five boroughs.
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Probably should have been a WWA with this everywhere outside the five boroughs. Evening commute could be messy.
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33 degrees, roads getting coated now.
