HVSnowLover

Haven;t really been following this one. Last I looked it seemed like a very minor event but now seems like advisory level snow is possible for NYC Metro?

Yes parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and even the southern Bronx are very concrete but nothing is like midtown or downtown Manhattan.

Seems urban vs rural made the biggest difference in this storm.

I imagine there are places in the northern Bronx already around or over 6 inches.

About 5-6 inches here I'd say. Amazing looking at some of the reports north of here. Euro was awful.

Often time colder comes with flatter, verbatim still a nice 3-6 inch event but wonder how much sticks if there isn't intense rates.

NAM maybe a tick more amped? Actually I think its not but the precip looks a bit more organized.

I mean in fairness this has been one of the most extreme last minute trends I can remember (especially south).

HRRR looks lousy unless you live in NJ.

We've had fast movers with cold air rushing in perform well before. I agree though this is probably around 5-6 inches most areas but I think some places in the metro might get 6-10.

Pretty decent tick north and juiced compared to 12Z. Looks in line with other guidance now.

I don't look at 10:1 maps but even the Kuchera maps are showing significant snow now for NYC and points south of NYC. I think people are underestimating how dynamic this storm could be. If the dynamics target Coastal NJ they get raked. It's about where the dynamics are in my opinion more than what temps are at the start of the storm.

The plus side of the south trend is it might be almost all snow from the get go which would help with accumulations.

LI is in a good spot. NYC probably in a good spot although concern is if the best dynamics are SE of NYC then NYC would deal with white rain due to UHI.

Truthfully you probably don't want to see mostly snow down to near ACY like the RAP is showing if you want big snows NYC area. This will have a pretty narrow axis of heaviest snow I think.