AKQ AFD... Latest 01/12Z models are into fairly good agreement with the pattern, though some notable differences persist. The ECWMF continues to be a little more aggressive at bringing deep moisture and therefore higher chances for pcpn to the local area while The GFS is slightly driest/farther offshore. The 12Z NAM had some peculiar secondary band NW of the main axis of precip along the coast (and was showing significant accumulating snow into the Piedmont). The 18Z NAM has genly gone away from this idea. Ultimately, will depend on how rapidly the northern stream and southern stream mid/upper level flow can phase, but its beginning to look as if at least SE 1/2 of the CWA will receive significant precip from late wed aftn/evening through Thu morning. Forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS/ECMWF which now brings a period of likely to Cat PoPs (60-80%) into NE NC and SE/eastern VA mainly by Wed evening, gradually shifting off to the NE as the sfc low further intensifies offshore wed night/Thu. Sfc dew pts and therefore very dry air looks to be hard to dislodge farther to the NW, so would anticipate a sharp cutoff in precipitation across NW 1/2 to 1/3 of CWA. Highs Wed mainly in the mid- upper 30s, possibly around 40 far SE. Critical thicknesses support all snow inland, to a changeover to rain or rain/snow mix along the SE coast Wed early evening before a change back to all snow. Mainly a 5th period event, so too early for a watch, but HWO mentions this potential storm and will continue to closely monitor trends on this system. First cut at snow accumulations favor highest amounts over interior NE NC/SE VA and the eastern shore (approximately ASJ to PHF to WAL). Most of this occurring from 00Z to 12Z Thu. Very little model guidance depicts higher snow amounts west of I-95 (even the ECMWF would support little to no snow amounts in the Piedmont). Lows Wed night mainly in the 20s, except upper teens NW. Drying from WSW to ENE on Thu , and will have high chc to likely PoPs until early aftn on the eastern shore, tapered to a dry fcst across SW/W 1/2 of the CWA. Windy and cold with highs mainly ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s.