Inudaw

GGEM and conversely its Regional counter part RGEM have been improving compared to the American counterparts. I don't think its as highly rated as the shorter range models such as Nam (under 48 hours) HRR and FV that have been developed lately. Usually its used as an idicator of how the GGEM will be have (global version). I'd argue its 3rd or 4th on the short range model tier. More interested in what the HRDps shows once with in 48 hours. High Resolution version of the Canadian model suit. Problem is with that we are at the far southern edge of its box of influence. lol

RGEM still a no go. Still good for Hampton roads area though.

Nam caveat's apply. It temporarily stopped the south and east bleed.

Great Post.

Big yikes.

Too aggressive based on current models, perhaps trying to account for "seasona" 48 hour bump in precip field north and west...

Rgem is south and east as well.

Last official 12" snow storm for Richmond Virginia was 29 years ago. But nature does care about who is "due"

Yea was just comparing it to 12z. 18z eps not encourage for Richmond area. Congrats to Hampton roads and Norfolk area if the trend continues.

Icon was sizeable improvement for this area... RGEM was south and east again... nam way north.

Could apply your own ratio to the base qpf. 0.7 at 12:1 = 8.4" at KRIC basically.

UKmet was most north west at 12z today.

I don't think we would mind sharing for areas further south. There is one eps member that really hammers the entire va/nc border area (e15).. Not much north of Fredricks burg on that member though.

Best EPS mean I have seen in years.

That was old run from 2 days ago. ^^;

4" is optimistic at the airport. Think sleet will really tamper totals here.

Eh history would say this will favor areas north of Richmond. Still hope to get at least 2 or 3 inches at the airport. ^^;;

0z ICON for those that want a visual.

Euro definitely shows areas north of Richmond (say from Ashland north) a lot more snow than the GFS overall. The main offender that kept trying to slam Richmond with the last storm was the UKMET. It was well to far south almost up to gametime with the last system. Ukmet is once again on the southern end of Guidance and GFS this time is more amped than the rest of the models. Will be interesting to see the final outcome.

Better snow fall than we had all last year both in intensity and flake size. lol Looks amazing out right now.

First flakes of the season for Richmond metro area. A few hours to go. Might get a coating if it stays heavy enough.

Hmmmm. Just under technically at airport.

Its gone on 0z gfs.

Which would equate to three 0.5 events for me in 3 weekends?

Not enough model support for weekend storm right now. Even if its the gfs.