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@Typhoon TipThe graph is only the Septembers. But yeah, I noticed that jump around 1878 as well. If Hunga Tonga really is having a significant effect then ok. But if it is the aerosol reduction then uh oh. That means we could have been underestimating global warming potential because aerosols were masking it this whole time.

Berkeley Earth issued their September report this morning. One thing that stood out to me is that according to CMIP6 a record of this magnitude even in a warming world only has a 1-in-10000 chance of occurrence. Two hypothesis are presented to explain it. 1) The reduction in aerosols and 2) The Hunga-Tonga eruption. https://berkeleyearth.org/september-2023-temperature-update/

Yep. And since aerosols mask the GHG warming that means if we've underestimated aerosol radiative forcing then we've underestimated GHG warming potential.

We discussed the Hunga Tonga eruption a few pages back. I found peer reviewed publications concerning the topic. You can find them in this post. The consensus is that the eruption won't likely have much of impact on the global average temperature though it may have a significant impact regionally. And to be pedantic the 10% figure is the increase in stratospheric water vapor. The actual amount is only 150 MtH2O which isn't even a blip compared to how much is in the entire atmosphere. It's just that stratosphere is dry (a few ppm of H2O) and thin (~20% of the total air mass) so there actually isn't very much water vapor up there to begin with. It is important to point out that while there isn't much up there its effects are quite different as compared to the troposphere.

In the UAH dataset 2023/09 broke the all time record by 0.20 C and broke the previous September record by 0.45 C. And since UAH lags ENSO by 4-5 months it is more likely than not that this is not yet the peak. In fact, we are only just barely seeing the El Nino response right now since the 4 and 5 month lagged ONI values are 0.5 and 0.2 respectively.

The July EEI from CERES is in. The 12 month average stands at +1.97 W/m2 while the 36 month average is stands at +1.48 W/m2. Theoretically as the planet warms the EEI drops assuming no further increase in radiative force anyway. Yet the EEI marches higher.

This bout of warming has been so extreme that I think even high end warming supporters (like Hansen) have to be scratching their heads at this point.

2023 is going to OBLITERATE the previous September record.

The September IRI ensemble forecast is out. 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ DYN 1.83 2.00 2.07 2.00 1.69 1.33 1.03 0.74 0.45 STAT 1.36 1.41 1.39 1.27 1.05 0.82 0.59 0.38 0.15 ALL 1.67 1.80 1.84 1.75 1.43 1.09 0.81 0.54 0.28 (D+S)/2 1.60 1.71 1.73 1.64 1.37 1.07 0.81 0.56 0.30

Perhaps now is the time to start a dedicated thread for the Antarctic region similar to what we have for the Arctic region. We have already had a record low minimum in 2023 and it is looking likely we'll see a record low maximum as well. In fact, I don't think we can eliminate the possibility that the max for 2023 is already in. We'll have to wait several more weeks to know for sure. And, of course, globally we've been in record territory for almost 4 months now.

The NSIDC extent went up a bit on 9/18. The 4.21 km2 on 9/17 could be our minimum.

I also monitor the daily JRA55 values. So far the implied value for GISTEMP coming from JRA is 1.36 C which is close to the record of 1.37 C set in 2016/02. JRA correlates with GISTEMP at R^2 = 0.87 so it is a pretty good predictor. As I've said before it is getting harder and harder to dismiss the accelerated warming hypothesis.

GISS reported 1.24 C for August.

Berkeley Earth recorded the warmest August on record by a wide margin. It is also the highest anomaly for any month in their dataset. https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/

In the spirit of RONI I present a similar metric except instead of being tropically adjusted it is globally adjusted. It is basically the ERSST ENSO3.4 monthly value minus the monthly global average. Similar to what the RONI is saying you can see that this ENSO cycle is attenuated relative to the global average. For point of comparison the August ENSO3.4 value was 1.3 while the value in the graph below is 0.8.

Another month and another record in ERSST.

And here is the evolution of my predictions for the annual mean GISTEMP value as posted in this thread. 06/08: 1.05 ± 0.09 06/16: 1.06 ± 0.08 07/13: 1.062 ± 0.07 07/19: 1.060 ± 0.07 08/14: 1.075 ± 0.06 08/25: 1.083 ± 0.05 09/05: 1.099 ± 0.05

For those checking the Kalshi global heat market bands my model is saying there are roughly equal chances of either GISTEMP coming at 1.08 to 1.10 vs 1.11 or above. It looks like the market made a big adjustment toward this conclusion today though it is still underweighting them and overweighting the 1.05 to 1.07 band just slightly. It does appear that the Kalshi market is starting to behave a bit more like sophisticated modelers are arbitrating the prices now so opportunities may be getting limited and harder to find. I will say that I still think my model may be underestimating the GISTEMP annual mean. The issue is that I have trained the model on historical data and I don't currently have a parameter being ingested that could act as a good proxy for a potential acceleration in the warming rate. And seeing as global SSTs are still running well above the previous record that reinforces my suspicion. I'll see if I can get the CERES EEI ingested and see what that does to the model, but the technical complication is that CERES data only goes back to the early 2000's and the model is trained starting in 1979. I have some ideas on how to deal with that though.

Nick Stokes just updated his dataset for August. It came in at 1.12 C. A blend of this, JRA, and ERA implies that GISTEMP will come in at 1.24 ± 0.06 C. Here is my updated analysis. Jan: 0.87 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.99) Feb: 0.98 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.90) Mar: 1.20 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.86) Apr: 1.00 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.71) May: 0.93 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.46) Jun: 1.08 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.11) Jul: 1.18 ± 0.02 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.14) Aug: 1.24 ± 0.06 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.46) Sep: 1.18 ± 0.21 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.84) Oct: 1.18 ± 0.22 C (3m lagged ENSO +1.02) Nov: 1.19 ± 0.23 C (3m lagged ENSO +1.30) Dec: 1.18 ± 0.24 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.35) 2023 Average: 1.099 ± 0.05 Probability of >= 1.02 is near 100% (new record) Probability of >= 1.03 is 99% Probability of <= 1.01 is near 0% Probability of between 1.02 and 1.04 is 2% Probability of between 1.05 and 1.07 is 15% Probability of between 1.08 and 1.10 is 43% Probability of >= 1.11 is 40%

The 3-digit file says 2016/02 is 0.705 which rounds up to 0.71, but that has updated yet so it may round down to 0.70 C now. Anyway, yeah, my model says the ENSO contribution is 0.14 * ONI lagged 4 months. 2016/02 had a contribution of 0.14 * 2.4 = 0.34 C while 2023/08 only had a contribution of 0.14 * 0.2 = 0.03 C. I think it is a good bet that the previous record will be broken even with a less intense El Nino.

I had said earlier that I think it is unlikely that a new annual record in the UAH dataset would occur this year. I might have to eat my words.

UAH TLT came in at +0.69 C. It is the warmest August in their dataset by a long shot.

Here is my updated analysis. Jan: 0.87 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.99) Feb: 0.98 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.90) Mar: 1.20 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.86) Apr: 1.00 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.71) May: 0.93 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.46) Jun: 1.08 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.11) Jul: 1.18 ± 0.02 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.14) Aug: 1.18 ± 0.13 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.46) Sep: 1.13 ± 0.21 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.84) Oct: 1.15 ± 0.22 C (3m lagged ENSO +1.00) Nov: 1.16 ± 0.23 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.25) Dec: 1.15 ± 0.24 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.35) 2023 Average: 1.083 ± 0.05 Probability of >= 1.02 is near 100% (new record) Probability of >= 1.03 is 98% Probability of <= 1.01 is near 0% Probability of between 1.02 and 1.04 is 5% Probability of between 1.05 and 1.07 is 31% Probability of between 1.08 and 1.10 is 44% Probability of >= 1.11 is 19%

I get what you are saying and I agree wrt to the lagged response. However, I want to present a different perspective. I run my own machine learning model for predicting the global average temperature. I use daily inputs to continuously refine the predictions. I do this to give myself as much of an edge as possible in the prediction markets (eg. here and here). One obvious input is the ENSO 3.4 value. Even mere hundredths of a degree change in the GAT prediction can result in significant changes in the probabilities and ultimately the optimal investment strategy. Yes, I monitor this thread and the data you guys present like a hawk and on a daily basis. You guys are a wealth of information BTW!

The CERES energy imbalance for June came in at +1.46 W/m2 and +1.92 W/m2 for 36m and 12m running averages respectively.