bdgwx

I'm with you guys. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all have something significant brewing for late next week.

I was getting ready to mention that as well. A vigorous trough with lots of kinetic energy at all levels colocated with adequate instability could mean trouble if many of the pieces come together in the right way. It might be more than just D6 to keep an eye on as well. There are a lot of pieces in play though so confidence seems low to me.

You often see hints of higher instability on the DGEX, but even that isn't much different than the GFS when comparing theta-e values.

There have been several estimates of the maximum wind speed put forth. The 494 page NIST report has a pretty thorough analysis of the event from pretty much every angle imaginable (I mean, it is 494 pages afterall). It looks like the estimates ranged from 170-230 mph with those on the lower end of that range being more realistic. The report said the EF5 rating was the result of the manhole covers and tractor trailers. Though I'm unsure what context the later is in reference to. I also read that the rebar anchored parking bumpers influenced the rating as well.

That spot in eastern Nebraska looks interesting on the 12Z GFS. The bulk shear is about 40 kts and nearly perpendicular to the boundary. There may be a short window of discrete supercellular activity. But the one thing that looks off is the 0-1km and 0-3km shear vectors are displaced to the east. It looks like convective activity will upscale quickly to an MCS and take advantage of an increasing nocturnal LLJ focused near or south of the NE/IA/MO border area.