bdgwx

I'm not seeing that. I do see a raw of 7.6, final of 7.1 and CI of 7.1 with 915 mb estimate though. I'm looking at ADTv9.1 provided by UW-CIMSS. NOAA's ADTv9.0 is weaker.

As we wait for recon flights here is the ADT history over the last 12 hours. ADT91 LIST 14L.ODT CKZ=YES ===== ADT-Version 9.1 ===== ----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- --------Tno/CI Rules-------- -Temperature- Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd ET ST Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Date (UTC) CI (CKZ)/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Flag Flag Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon 2024OCT08 061020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.9 6.7 5.8 0.5T/hour ON FLG OFF OFF -68.64 -75.85 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.16 90.04 2024OCT08 064020 7.7 896.7 161.0 6.7 6.6 6.0 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -74.43 -78.44 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.00 89.56 2024OCT08 071020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.7 6.7 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -70.52 -78.87 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.15 89.35 2024OCT08 074020 7.6 899.7 158.0 6.6 6.8 5.9 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -73.65 -77.17 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.15 89.57 2024OCT08 081020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.7 6.9 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -68.07 -78.98 EMBC N/A 78.5 22.21 89.13 2024OCT08 084020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.7 6.9 5.5 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -68.76 -78.17 UNIFRM N/A 78.5 22.22 89.06 2024OCT08 091020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.8 7.0 5.5 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -67.17 -77.76 UNIFRM N/A 78.5 22.30 88.90 2024OCT08 094020 7.6 899.6 158.0 6.8 6.9 5.5 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -68.53 -77.65 UNIFRM N/A 78.5 22.34 88.80 2024OCT08 101020 7.5 902.5 155.0 6.8 6.8 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -66.73 -78.66 EMBC N/A 75.0 22.37 88.90 2024OCT08 104020 7.3 908.4 149.0 6.8 6.6 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -67.28 -78.44 EMBC N/A 75.0 22.40 88.80 2024OCT08 111020 7.0 916.9 140.0 6.9 7.3 7.4 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -25.45 -77.72 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.43 88.79 2024OCT08 114020 7.0 916.9 140.0 6.9 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -25.94 -76.95 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.47 88.71 2024OCT08 121020 7.0 916.9 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -25.32 -77.04 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.48 88.69 2024OCT08 124020 7.0 916.9 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -25.55 -76.75 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.48 88.62 2024OCT08 131020 7.1 914.1 143.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -27.12 -76.51 EYE/P -99 IR 58.2 22.49 88.60 2024OCT08 134020 7.1 914.2 143.0 7.0 6.5 5.3 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -71.99 -76.10 UNIFRM N/A 58.2 22.23 88.47 2024OCT08 141020 7.1 914.1 143.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -54.89 -74.76 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.43 88.60 2024OCT08 144020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.8 6.5 5.2 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -58.42 -73.95 UNIFRM N/A 58.2 22.47 88.55 2024OCT08 151020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.7 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -49.48 -73.51 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.50 88.45 2024OCT08 154020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -34.11 -74.37 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.41 88.52 2024OCT08 161020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.6 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -36.56 -75.20 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.45 88.37 2024OCT08 165020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.5 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -38.67 -74.51 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.46 88.36 2024OCT08 171020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.5 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -14.98 -74.80 EYE 12 IR 58.2 22.45 88.24 2024OCT08 174020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.7 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 3.62 -76.18 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.41 88.17 2024OCT08 181020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.8 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 2.70 -77.16 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.43 88.05 2024OCT08 184020 7.1 915.1 143.0 7.0 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 3.09 -76.69 EYE 13 IR 58.2 22.48 87.96

Per the official 15Z NHC update Milton's IKE is currently 22 TJ and expected to increase to 63 TJ just prior to landfall.

That dropsonde had 24 kt winds so it's probably good for 897 mb.

899 mb on that pass.

Yeah, Milton is going black hole mode right now. NOAA2 cannot get there fast enough for some of us. Bizarrely ADT raw T# dropped to 7.4. Given the current satellite presentation...make that make sense.

NOAA2 better hustle. Milton is about to peak.

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it looks like the eye has contracted a bit over the last 30 minutes.

Yep. It is definitely gaining latitude now.

ADT raw T# is fluctuating some, but mostly steady over the last 2.5 hours. It is currently at 7.5. The final T# is starting to spool in now at 6.5.

While we wait for the next recon mission ADT final and raw T numbers are 6.0 and 7.5 respectively. The RI has made ADT slow to respond so the raw T number is probably more applicable right now.

The SFMR readings definitely look suspicious. I hope they put a dropsonde down in the eyewall on this pass so that we can confirm the FL-to-sfc relationship.

The RI rate is now 7.5 mb/hr.

The cone is the 1σ (68%) envelope. It is expected that tropical cyclones will deviate outside one specific side of the cone about 16% of the time. Given that Cedar Key is just inside the cone on the north side you can infer about a 20% chance.

Not that I trust it, but SFMR got 176 kts unflagged on that pass.

The dropsonde that reported 127 kts at the surface also reported a peak in the whole profile of 145 kts at 910 mb. The most recent drop in the NW eyewall only reported 105 kts at the surface but a remarkable 183 kts at 900 mb. It probably got entrained into a gust, but still...that's 211 mph!

NOAA3 mission 7 dropsonde at 12:54Z was 941 mb with 17 kts. AF309 mission 8 dropsonde at 14:12Z was 935 mb with 17 kts. That is almost 5 mb per hour.

That last dropsonde measured 935 mb with a 17 kt wind. That's good for at least 934 mb and possibly 933 mb.

Oof...that latest recon pass is nasty. 941 mb extrapolated, 143 kts FL, 146 kts SFMR, and a dropsonde of 127 kts at the surface. BTW that puts the FL to sfc conversion at 0.89.

12Z SHIPS is out though I'm not sure how helpful it is during a round of ongoing RI. Anyway, it is initialized at 110 kts. The consensus between statistical and dynamic is 44%, 41%, and 29% for 25 kts, 30 kts, and 35 kts of additional intensification respectively. There is a > 50% of an ERC in the next 24 hours. Shear and dry air are still expected to encroach and weaken the storm as it approaches land. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/07/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 119 122 122 121 114 110 105 97 84 64 52 43 36 34 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 119 122 122 121 114 110 105 70 56 36 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 122 128 129 126 120 116 110 70 59 46 34 24 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 10 9 19 27 34 35 50 57 68 66 60 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 9 5 4 3 6 2 6 8 6 -3 -7 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 175 166 186 167 194 215 217 230 233 228 225 230 228 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.0 30.6 30.6 30.9 30.7 30.2 30.3 29.7 28.7 27.8 27.9 27.4 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 171 171 172 172 173 165 149 136 138 131 135 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 2 1 2 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 61 60 57 56 47 46 50 53 48 40 33 34 32 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 26 27 28 29 34 36 36 33 28 25 20 13 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 73 80 86 91 101 101 85 86 75 84 45 40 -10 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 26 35 15 -14 9 46 80 97 68 51 25 4 21 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -16 -19 -13 -11 -13 1 4 -8 -34 -43 -58 -50 -59 -46 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 211 116 56 61 65 253 261 13 74 390 581 742 956 1231 1428 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.8 21.7 22.0 22.2 23.8 25.6 27.3 28.9 29.8 30.2 30.9 32.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.2 91.2 90.1 89.1 88.1 86.4 84.5 82.7 80.0 76.9 73.5 70.0 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 33 22 20 19 60 31 27 40 31 18 13 9 7 7 N/A N/A SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.7% 27.2% 26.0% 19.2% 7.5% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 30.3% 27.0% 26.3% 22.8% 6.8% 10.9% 1.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 20.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.8% 18.1% 17.6% 14.2% 4.8% 7.4% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 78.0% 69.0% 64.0% 44.0% 6.0% 26.0% 5.0% 0.0% SDCON: 52.4% 43.5% 40.8% 29.1% 5.4% 16.7% 2.8% 0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142024 MILTON 10/07/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 34( 53) 34( 69) 30( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 2( 20) 5( 24) 5( 27) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

18Z SHIPS is still favorable for rapid intensification (no surprise). The model is initialized at 70 kts with the odds of 55 kts of further intensification at 21% for SHIPS and 97% for DTOPS and consensus of the two SDCON at 53% suggesting that 125 kts (category 4) is not only possible, but perhaps likely. Of note is the shear, at least that which is modeled by the GFS track, which increases significantly as Milton approaches land and is the primary factor in the decline in intensity prior to landfall. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 80 88 95 101 108 112 107 103 89 70 48 32 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 80 88 95 101 108 112 107 91 64 45 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 81 90 98 104 114 117 117 110 68 55 42 30 22 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 11 14 14 13 14 12 31 35 42 44 57 69 67 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 6 4 6 6 0 2 7 2 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 218 221 220 199 219 214 221 215 223 226 225 227 233 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.8 30.7 30.2 30.2 29.4 28.8 27.7 27.3 27.5 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 171 171 172 172 172 173 160 150 135 129 130 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 62 60 53 50 47 51 54 56 44 37 37 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 21 23 27 30 32 35 35 30 24 19 14 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 56 68 70 70 69 118 121 102 81 78 56 38 14 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 21 14 14 30 17 39 32 101 88 81 18 19 0 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -8 -9 -11 -15 -13 -11 1 6 -1 -41 -55 -93 -45 -19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 359 300 223 167 193 310 266 -7 61 365 542 673 879 1097 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.5 23.3 24.4 25.8 27.8 29.0 29.6 30.5 31.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.1 93.4 92.7 91.7 90.8 88.7 86.8 84.7 82.7 80.2 77.1 73.7 70.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 16 13 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 46 45 43 37 33 57 32 25 34 34 17 11 10 14 N/A N/A SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.6% 58.3% 45.4% 40.3% 22.7% 32.9% 21.3% 16.5% Logistic: 33.2% 46.0% 45.9% 33.9% 9.6% 15.4% 4.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 30.1% 8.4% 19.2% 31.5% 13.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 31.0% 37.5% 36.8% 35.3% 15.3% 16.4% 8.7% 5.7% DTOPS: 65.0% 97.0% 92.0% 71.0% 32.0% 100.0% 97.0% 15.0% SDCON: 48.0% 67.2% 64.4% 53.1% 23.6% 58.2% 52.8% 10.3%

While most of the hurricane models were bold with their intensity at 18Z one notable exception is COAMPS which peaks at only 65 kts. Because publicly accessible data is so hard to find that isn't delayed I can only speculate on the cause. I noticed its track takes a deeper dive toward the Yucatan not unlike the ECMWF and ICON. Notice that the ECMWF and ICON are more bullish with the development of the minor tropical disturbance on the eastern side of the GOM even establishing and maintaining a closed surface low as it tracks over FL ahead of Milton's approach. This causes a slight Fujiwhara bend in Milton's track. It's possible COAMPS sides more with the ECMWF/ICON in this regard and as result may be mitigating intensification somewhat. Anyway, the point is that not all hurricane models in the IVCN suite are bullish on Milton's intensity. Edit: Slight wording change for clarity.

0Z SHIPS is in. It's still showing modest intensity and RI probabilities. However, what piqued my interest is that DTOPS is showing an RI probability of 88% of 65 kts in 72 hours. I don't remember seeing a higher value. DTOPS is the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Model and is said to be the most skillful of all intensity models. [DeMaria et al. 2021] * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 56 67 76 80 82 82 74 63 52 37 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 56 67 76 80 82 82 56 47 36 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 59 69 74 78 79 57 48 38 29 23 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 8 13 13 15 20 20 30 41 42 52 46 42 39 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 1 1 3 2 6 7 5 0 8 3 11 10 4 SHEAR DIR 222 238 252 237 224 237 236 234 230 223 214 226 227 232 230 242 242 SST (C) 31.3 31.3 31.1 31.0 31.0 31.1 30.9 30.5 30.5 30.1 28.8 29.2 28.2 27.4 28.0 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 169 170 170 171 172 172 172 150 157 141 130 136 130 132 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 6 8 6 7 5 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 70 68 63 58 52 47 52 52 55 54 49 43 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 15 17 22 26 29 32 36 35 32 30 25 21 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 27 37 51 60 48 91 133 126 106 98 57 50 24 5 -10 200 MB DIV 32 25 7 20 31 6 45 22 39 53 84 86 53 63 16 8 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -7 -6 -12 -10 -10 1 -4 -19 -48 -26 -50 -38 -57 LAND (KM) 251 286 322 378 406 287 252 321 375 157 -85 234 435 579 757 913 1081 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.9 28.7 30.1 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.0 94.6 94.1 93.5 92.0 90.3 88.2 86.2 84.1 81.8 78.8 75.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 14 12 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 50 51 50 50 49 47 41 43 58 24 6 44 19 16 14 11 11 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 26.5% 12.4% 8.8% 5.9% 12.4% 13.3% 20.8% Logistic: 8.7% 34.6% 24.1% 9.7% 3.7% 8.2% 7.2% 3.4% Bayesian: 1.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% Consensus: 4.8% 21.9% 12.7% 6.5% 3.4% 6.9% 7.0% 8.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 74.0% 43.0% 14.0% 6.0% 80.0% 79.0% 88.0% SDCON: 4.9% 47.9% 27.8% 10.2% 4.7% 43.4% 43.0% 48.1%

18Z SHIPS modestly favors rapid intensification. It only peaks Milton at 80 kts though, which given latest dynamical guidance, should probably be viewed as closer to the lower bound. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 63 73 76 78 80 72 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 63 73 76 78 80 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 59 69 76 80 80 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 10 8 16 15 20 19 31 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -1 0 1 -1 4 5 9 2 SHEAR DIR 225 243 246 244 233 229 243 244 242 241 235 SST (C) 31.2 31.3 31.2 31.1 31.0 31.1 30.9 30.7 30.8 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 169 169 170 171 172 172 170 171 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 73 71 67 63 56 52 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 15 18 24 26 29 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 56 43 30 31 39 57 62 54 135 133 124 200 MB DIV 48 30 25 8 12 26 31 31 40 56 61 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -1 4 7 LAND (KM) 214 250 271 322 373 343 285 291 409 234 0 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.5 24.1 25.3 26.6 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.3 95.1 94.6 94.1 92.8 91.2 89.2 86.9 84.8 82.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 7 9 11 12 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 52 51 50 48 46 44 61 28 24 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 41.2% 25.9% 10.2% 7.0% 15.7% 16.8% 23.3% Logistic: 13.3% 46.9% 34.4% 10.9% 4.7% 13.6% 8.7% 4.5% Bayesian: 2.7% 7.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% Consensus: 7.1% 32.0% 21.1% 7.5% 4.1% 10.0% 8.8% 9.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 21.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 17.0% 39.0% SDCON: 5.0% 26.5% 14.0% 5.2% 2.5% 6.5% 12.9% 24.2%

The DMI plot of volume has been updated to include September 2024.