PivotPoint

Lol. Coming from ravensrule.. talk about a pot

I have never moved a post (don’t have the capability). So your reference makes no sense lol.. confused face

Already moved? Why don’t you move your banter???

@psuhoffman dark blue baby, dark blue!

Looking at the latest nams tonight I see dc region getting another 2-3” from this tomorrow. 700mb has improved and the easterlies tomorrow are now more on par with how we receive our ccb snows from a pivoting lp. There’s also good water vapor transport and ample moisture to our west and nw, suggesting when the ccb consolidates we could be on the tail end of banding that sits for awhile

It does actually. 1pm on so cut that in half

It’s funny you say this, I actually felt very similar 4-5 days ago. You articulate one of my concerns very well — which was the typical Jackpot spots were underperforming and that the variance between model runs wasn’t waffling in a way that screamed dc-nova-md banding. I personally thought the manner in which the transfer happens and the low positioned itself seemed to lend itself to later (hence more NW) development and the ccb would be to our NW/NE. However, it’s touch and go around these parts now. If you naysay snow too much around here you get axed. Is what it is. But I like the ridge building my out west through the period and recycling of some of our blocking to the north. Our cold source is much better than 4-6 weeks ago. I say we definitely see some good model runs coming in the intermediate, perhaps

Well at least we have history on our side, in that the when the nam is solo it usually flips. I like at @Bob Chill comment on the transfer possibly being an issue for meso’s to handle such a complicated transfer. Either before or after that is good for frontogenisis and banding, but the middle of this process sometimes leaves them bewildered. I mean, one meso (rgem) has 30+” and the other has 11”, lol. Someone’s not right

Hello 2-3” per hour rates. Hope you guys get crushed. Good to see chill. He’s the man @bobchill

It’s also the trough taking its sweet time to tilt negative. If it ticks earlier or quicker the best lift will reorganize a little father SW and we’re in business on the tail end of the CCB. Unfortunately (like many times) just north of Baltimore and and Phillies area seem to be the sweet spot for deepening and cyclogenisis. I was also a little disappointed over past 2 days on the WAA thump. Those can really deliver here and can hold on sometimes longer than anticipated. That’s not as robust as it was 48 hours ago. For me though.. I’m all good. Sitting on plane at the moment in bound to Jackson Hole. It always snows back in dc when I leave during the winter. 09/10 was a direct result of my 6 week absence. So you’re welcome

That’s a great mean this far out. Need some consistency over next two days but having euro woofing for us is no small feat!

I think some possible good news rolling forward is the cross polar flow I’m seeing on the mid-long range gfs. Our blocking breaks down a bit and trough drops in out west. However, I look at the timing of a lack of Greenland blocking coinciding with a -PNA as possibly a good thing. If we can indeed recycle a block, it’s just a matter of time before we get a transient +PNA. With a colder source region and (hopefully) higher heights in the NAO domain, with shorter wave lengths approaching maybe we get the SS to become more active. I’m liking finally getting cold on this side of the northern hemisphere as we approach February and March which can be dynamic and moist.

Yea, I agree but it’s still discouraging. I mean, yes the ridge axis out west isn’t ideal and yes, there’s some interaction with the departing storm (not ideal). But I feel like we had enough ingredients that a moderate event was possible if we got the right track. That’s the annoying thing, it’s not an awful evolution but the result is a miss. I do think though that if the TPV isn’t phasing or helping to sharpen the back side of the trough, then it’s hurting.. not helping, imo

My rationale two days was either a) storm is more progressive (weaker) and we Chet light snow but perhaps better temp profile (maybe) or b) it’s wound up and we get more dynamics and qpf. The reason we’re failing is confluence to the north created by TPV. I mentioned too much confluence and we get no development and southern track. Pretty sure that’s close to what’s happening. I dunno

I think it’s probably ok for me to say it’s likely this will slide south of us. Two days ago when I said it I was chastised big time but unfortunately my fears have come true. I hate that euro is usually right, ugh