NCSNOW

It was the greatest 10-14 day stretch of winter wx in my living history. Had 4 seperate events. 3 where Winter Storm warnings ( one being the crusher)

You follow your gut and stay away from JI and youll be alright.

Heres how I see our odds. They play powerball in 50 states. But this storm is like the powerball and the only 2 states who can buy the winning ticket are NC,SC, heck Ill throw SeVA in there as well as some carnival cruise ship passengers on a boat 100 miles off the coast. But someone has the winning number and guranteed winner. So lets hope its someone in sc,nc,seva. And then lets hope when they scratch it off its frozen precip and not cold rain for the prize.

Next week has potential mid week and following weekend. But to be very clear, im referencing the potential storm for this coming weekend. You guys watch h5 and youll see we are on the half inch line, not 1yard line and about to cross the plane of the goalline for a Touchdown. Its amazing how big a difference downstream at the surface it will make if one of two or both pieces of energy can just get the slightest nudge here or there. These nudges are 50 to 100 miles and 48 to 60 hours from this pivotal intersection with each other. This has some pretty significant implications for not just ENC, upper SC coast, but a lot of central and possibly western NC, Upstate. Tonight at 0z we need to see the trend continue and not head back to more seperation. This is a swing at the fence type deal. Its eitheir gonna be a homerun or a whiff, no middle ground. I can tell you if we miss it'll be by the smallest of margins the way models are showing it right now.

Hope you guys realize just how close this weekend event is to doing more than possibly kissing the coastline. So so close at h5. Even though surface looks like we are 200 miles from moisture. The 2 pieces of energy we need to phase and caues a boom, are within a nose hair of making this happen. If only the southern one would just come off texas coast into Gom halfway between brownsville and houston, or heaven forbid houston area someone will get thumped. Right now its been brownsville. Northern stream is about to trend back sharp enough and come in behind ss energy. May just be a long fly ball at the warning track, but still has time to clear the left field fence.

There are 19, yes 19 peaks in the Great Smoky mtns over 6,000 feet. Look where that is and its easy to see why especially Mack and Lookout suffer so much. Bad enough where we are downwind of SW VA and WVA on W/ NW flow.

Yea its ratios. Rare we see it working in the favorable direction from 10:1 base. Id be ecstatic with a 2-3 inch fluffer followed by several days of temps ruining 10 or more BN.

HOLA! EPS is frigid next Thursday. That 1/4 inch snowpack must be doing it lol.

FV3 at 6z:

last night fv3. Falls says its down at 6z so I;ll try to post when its out or finished.

Here was the canadian last night. Again difference is whether the anafrontal can be enhanced by catching the very weak wave out in front and it rides up the front, enhancing moisture. GFS doesnt have this. last night fv3 and Icon did. Euro was very bland just a front passage, lowest qpf.

Gfs is only one of 4 0z models without little wave to amp on front as it comes through. We need thst little wave or energy east of apps

0z Fv3 is better for you orangburgwx. Solid 2 to 3 inches columbia up to GSO and all points east. So all globals look encouraging for day 4 to day 5 event. Under 5 days finally for a little event. Should have good ratios but its a quick hitter. 3 to 5 hr event then serious cold to follow

Light accums, gfs misses and is inch less here because its just cold front an east of apps we all know how that works. Icon is to warm for you this run. You want to root for canadian solution. Amps a wave out in front. Gfs doesnt have this energy in front to amp.

0z Icon,gfs and canadian bring snow tues into wed. Canadian is best 3 to 4 triad to coastal plain. All models light. Icon and gem have low ride up front and helps enc

Piedmont Triad International Airport; Thanks QC. Tramadoc rain held off just long enough and was light enough to not cause any issues. Fact the pavement is still dry at noon time go figure. This sub freezing pattern, warm up to mid 30s rain, then back to sub freezing is wearing on my patience.

Rain just started here at PTI: See if its steady enough to wb down. wetbulb is 28,7

Nam shoves energy futher east on h5 for begining of weekend storm. Interested to see this thing by friday as its getting sampled. Feel like we havnt heard the last from it.

Its 12z canadian and 18z fv3. 12z canadian is a beaut at h5. My typo mistake

Check out 18z canadian and fv3 for next Tues/Wed. Lot more easier to do than this tightrope phase we where hoping to pull off and still could enc espeacilly. But even there high odds still.

Canadian and fv3 look really good for next Tuesday into wednesday and more on their heels for latter in the week. 7 day mark. See if the models can hang onto this and get inside 5 days. Not depending on a pv lobe for cold. Nice 1040 hp. Pure snow sounding in most of carolinas. Canadian consolidates energy alot better at h5. Cant use the crapfest ole gfs. Does another northern call cutoff . What a pathetic model. 7 days isnt what anyone wants to hear. But it all, including this weekends wide right miss, fits the bill of what has been advertised. Post jan 25th pattern change to a great look. So it has legs, lets see if it can play it out or throw egg in our face.

Guarantee your house if its out in the country especially toward Rocky Mount Wilson airport will be mid 20's by 9pm. Watch RWI, They are the masters at radiating.

Oh there masters at playing catch-up after it starts unfolding. Moisture is building fast off to our west and return flow will set up shop no doubt. But even way off to my east, its gonna be even colder, clouds delayed. so if moisture is in here early enough its gonna be a big mess in the morning commute down I40 toward triangle.

Alrighty we've reached the daytime max. Sitting here 37/3 at 4;30 pm. Clear skies, so in 90 minutes its full on radiational cooling. We see the biggest/fastest drop the first 2-3 ours post sunset. So if we stay pretty clear to 9pm this evening , gonna be easily sitting in the mid 20's pre -clouds, along with single digit DPs. Then its just a race to get in moisture . Have to say this is a recipe for some super icy road conditions in the morning if the drizzle or moisture make it in here by 6 am. Again Raleigh nws has nada. Must have a lot of faith in models.