NCSNOW

12z Euro Op: Feb 8th still looking good/on track

12z gfsFV3 adds to the noise starting Feb 8-9. One overuning event after another. Has front to our west runing sw to ne but gets it sagged and by feb 10 on has moisture coming and going across se, overruning with one hp after another sliding across ne. See ice down in south GA one day. So starting Feb 8 onward to atleast Feb 15 is a golden opportunity. Really curious to how the front that passes through feb 8-9 decides to set up shop and its orientation.

Now that we are getting pretty strong consensus the warm up coming is brief and Feb 8/9 is our flip back time to winter. Time to start watching for opportunity to see if the window is open. I've seen a FV3 run from two days ago slap a fantasy event up during this time and it was the same reason the GFS has this at 12z today. Front comes through and hangs up along Gulf Coast. Then we get over runing potential with Our Must Have HP hanging out over NE ( Theres a 1045 HP sliding W-E behind that GL LP). Heres' a vort map to be watching for what kind of energy will be around. Rooting for a surface low here to form. Doesn't have to be some big beast, but the opportunity is there for the taken. On the surface this vort map is just a very thin line of snow way down Miss/AL. We know we are gonna have a front come through next Thursday/ 7-8 days away. Next thing to nail down is watch and see if it keeps stalling along gulf coast. If that's there next several days on models, then look for the energy on vort maps/trends and see if it can throw the qpf over the top into cold air.

Yea Gefs was only one out of 4 that looked awful to me around this time and biggest reason is the lack of west coast ridge. If we NA trough or I call it the bowling ball trough again, I have reservations about our chances. There are ways to make it work good for us but also alot of ways where we sit through past patterns of cold ,warmup and rain then right back cold. I just wish we could get a nice ridge on west coast and true split flow pattern. Then throw in just the slightest bit of help Atlantic side would be icing on the cake.

0z EPS

0z Euro Same time

GFS Friday week: 2/8/17

Alright ill join the pattern change chase. Right now its Feb 7th per gfs and euro op. Not the ensembles I know, but hour 220-230 have a storm going over NC and ots , behind, a big fat high building in. I checked this last night on euro and its held serve, so lets see if it can get under 5 days by this weekend. If,big if the mjo gets a move on out of phase 6 into 7, which its supose to ,then this times out right. My hunch is for my area we needed a reshuffle in order to score. And if we do score again its gonna have to time it with a cad HP sliding into place , synched with a gulf low. Just like December. This pv counter clockwise wheel over the lakes want work.

Snowing northern obx per this radar: man that storm was so so so so close https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/south-carolina/weather-radar?play=1

We'll Im not an expert and dont mind calling myself out. But my amateur seasonal forecast from November is no doubt gonna bust on temps and at best has a 50/50 chance of verefying snowfall wise. I feel strongly we will have too punt the first 10 days of Feb at a minimum and possibly several more. Still time here to score one more storm late Feb, early March so well see. But the models LR no doubt head faked me out big time and on two seperate occasions this winter. The pac was a mess late Dec into first 9 days of January and its getting ready to flood us agian with pacific air. So outside of tommorows cold front, its gonna take a last second pattern rollover for late Feb early March to see anymore frozen. Really hate for SC peeps and down east guys who have been shutout so far. One thing Ive learned is I cringe everytime I hear el nino mentioned. Use to root for the weak ones,but as we can see its just not worth it. To many days wasted feeling pacific origin air verse colder canadian. Always root for the cold and get it to stay.. Then look for some precip, itll come along down here. We are polar opposite this year because of the el nino signal and pac lined up the way it did.

Lordy look at radar down in Florida and south GA. This was so close. If it could have turned 100 miles earlier.

You boys better root hard for this front and enjoy the refreshing artic air for a few days that follow. After that its looking like we are rooting for a late Feb/ early March freak spring snowstorm. I dont trust a brief warmup,then it rolls back over to cold, atleast not yet. All this backend winter talk, thank the lord we scored early December.

0z Nam trending wrong direction;

Oh yea and it can trend away from this as well. hour 30 if the trough can just go a nose hair negative itll be way futher inland. Right now its neutral at hr 30 and honestly here at hr 42 should be more qpf back in land NC in my opinion. Well see, been a fun one to watch.

End Result: Thats whats called getting Nam'ed after several days watching for a NW trend and finally at h5 you get get minor tweaks to break your way and win that wx lottery scenario I was talking about a coupe of days ago.

3 hours latter still going

I guess this is Rain

Gvegas up to Elizabeth City got nam'ed. Congrats. Still think tommorow night into Monday could get even better. Follow the short range models at h5. Leading the way.

I was just taking a peek on my phone to see. Away from house today. Dont have access to euro which is runing now. Maybe someone can chime in that does and give a 10 day update. Watch the 18z nam and short range canadian. Theyll be out around 400 ish today. Ive enjoyed tracking the sunday night monday deall on h5 vort maps. Knowing its highly unkikely for mby, but it really is so close. Still think northern coastal plain can score here. Well see. Biggest deal for certain is mtns ought th to rack up several inches with front tuesday night into wednesday. Im going 2 to 5 below 4000ft and 4-8 above 4000. When it want snow in your backyard, what you have to do is forecast for everyone elses and watch it on webcams lol.

Why are yall sweating LR? Got 3 shots this week. Longest one is sunday night into monday and mainly down east. Artic front again is long shot, but euro is right we can squeeze out .2 if that little wave will develop on tail end. Then next weekend as of now looks great overrunner for almost whole region. May , should have a few more shots post Feb 10 till March.

Agreed 100%. Im chasing unicorns with Sunday deal and mid week cold front flizzard.

The RDPS (which is the Short Range Canadian model and pretty good only goes out to 48. The pic above is the GDPS or Long Range Canadian Global. I wanted to post the Short range RDPS but Pivotal has the area we need to see botched out o figure. However I can make enough of it to see it looks probably as sexy as the 18z nam if not more. If this rabbit chase doesn't pan out. Good news is we have at least 2 more on its tale coming up mid week and next weekend.

Here was the Canadian at the same time today. Notice the isobars are a litllet flatter out in front coming across NC. Want them the sharpen up more SW to NE. The storm is wound up more/phased energy on the 18z Nam is whats causing this. If it can hook up phase eitheir quicker, futher north or stronger, then the trough orientation will change.

NS captures SS on 18z Nam. Just wish SS would be a little further north coming of Texas coast. It digs to deep from AZ till GOM before it gets captured. Oh this is so so close.

Today is the day the rubber meets the road model world. NS has made the jumps we needed and now we need a favorable tweak from the southern piece of energy and several folks will be in big time business. Everything is coming into to better RAOB sampling areas today.