NCSNOW

I stuck the keys in the ignition and fired the bus up early this morning. Enjoy the ride and heres to crossing that 20 inch seasonal mark for everyone below 1200 feet.

We dont fire up the bus for cold, even if its vodka cold. Only winter precip. GFS says to put the key in the ignition. Ill wait a couple more days. Seen to many head fakes.

Late next weekend into Monday is really starting to look interesting. Been watching since Grit post yesterday on Euro 12z. Now fv3 and gfs starting to send smoke signals. Im not ready to fire up the bus but i got the keys in my hand.

Its got suport same time frame fv3. Nice trends this afternoon

Whats happening now is a prime example of why the Pacific is so much more important to have on your side verses the Atlantic (-Nao, etc) . Its what matters the most as far as effects on the SE winter weather pattern. You screw up the Pac pattern and your gonna toast. We are literally gonna be punting December 26-January 15 at a minimum from the looks of things now and that very well could extend on into the Jan 20-30 time frame. February and early March still could set up in stellar fashion or continue with the putrid garbage we are experiencing now. So the jury is still out on the last 1/3 of winter. Playing with house money this season, but I hate forfeiting the Prime climo dead of winter. We never see the Dog days ( Mid July- Mid August) at -15--20 BN lol! However getting +15-+20 is a piece of cake during the dead of winter. The pacific is like a Pressure washer of hot steam. To much warm soup whipped up and its driving/forcing the NH pattern currently. Until something negates that, we aint gonna see a change to our sensible wx downstream.

Record warm fall? Wasnt November. Raleigh and Greensboro ended up -4 for Nov.. Actually Dec was fine till last 5 to 9 days

Nothing like having 2 days off and using the mikd weather in your favir to pkay some Golf. Only problem is it rains 24/7 now a days. Yard is like mush.

The royal battle right now is between the eps and gefs handling, forecasting the mjo. Webber has pointed out how historically horrendous the eps is with forecasting mjo. Lets hope thats the case today cause gefs sends it phase 7 and 8 which is cold and eps sends it cod warm phase back to 4. Its been grinding or stuck in 5 or 6 past 12 days, hence why weve had warm weather. We have everything on our side but the mjo. Its the wrecking ball to our perfectly lined up pattern. We get to phase 7 and 8 then we will all be in business real fast. The soi has tanked to negative territory so thats a great sign. Trend is our friend, hopefully eps plays catch up in a day or two and gets a clue. Lets hope its off its rocker again with the mjo

Seeing some cracks in the torchfest wall. Ive said to hang tight till Jan 1st and the models want be so depressing anymore. Sticking to my guns and well see come Tuesday. Cant look anyworsebthanbthese past few days lol, so can only go up. Think our friend the NAO may come around to save the day. Biggest thing that needs to happen is get the MJO in to phase 7 and prefearbly 8. Just get it moving out ofbthe dumpster fire phases. Lets see ifbthese cracks, keep trending next few runs.

You could try the 0z fv3 or new GFS I should say for next week.

Yes, ssw in early stages, plus just because youget a pv split doesnt gurantee anything, its where those lobes set up shop after the split. Does the ssw effect the mjo and drive it into phase 7 and espeacilly 8 or is whats happening up top of the globe an effect of the mjo? Lot to learn about what triggers the causes and effects of the pattern drivers.

Lol. You, we got a shot late next week to score some novelty event stuff. Not a long shot and not a slamdunk eitheir. Hope is fv3 is 1 for 1 on sniffing out an event from 7 days out this winter. Maybe 12z it goes 2 for 2. Red flag is confluence over NE isnt what we normally like to see. But its all we got to look at right now till the mjo gets out of 6.

Give the models a few days and Im willing to bet by Jan 1st the LR picture want be as foggy and well be able to nail down the next window of opportunity. The firehose of moisture isnt going to shut off and its just a matter of getting a trough on the east coast to hang out 3 to 5 days and well time out another amped up synoptic event. Once the models see the ssw propogate down and the MJO finally decides to get into phase 7 it should be game on. In laymens terms we just need the pac ridge to blow up and drive canadian air down into a east coast trough. These big wets come along every 5 days, thats how theyve been spacing out. Whats impressive is their duration. Just like the early December big dog, this next flood event is gonna get going this afternoon, hit us hard Friday and leave hangover moisture for several day afterwards.

Not that im an expert. But if youll do like Im doing and start learning H5 and look at the pattern forecast and evoloution, youll see with confidence that table is setting up nicely to get the cold back in here. Been seasonal, but SE you always need a nudge BN. Cold is coming. As JB says use metorology not modelology. That pac ridge coming is gonna be a beaut and just what we need to send the canadian air down this way, espeacilly up at the 850 level. The unicorn want be ssw but keeping the stj going like it has and supply the moisture,time up right. The pv split is already happeneing and the dominoes are begining to fall in place. Be of good cheer for the new snow white year thats coming.

Hope everyone is getting ready, cause the cold is coming gangbusters after we ring in 2019. Watch the epo and pna. Most important tc for the SE in winter

Was to far north imo

Lol didnt have much of none for the warm nose,but we bought lock stock barrel

Radar continues to fill in nicely over TN and Georgia. Seeing some breakout over Sw NC near upstate as well.

Yall laugh at the brickster, but he just got double digit snowfall when everyone was telling him to ignore models.

Yes and the models did a great job. How bout the FV3 from 7 plus days out. Gonna be a fun winter when it starts in 2 weeks lol.

This stuff is pure concrete now. Itll be days before it melts. Gonna be nice getting 2 to 3 fresh on top latter tonight.

Greensboro airport for the second time in recorded history has officially hit double digits in December.

Already 5 inches on ground in Hendersonville. You get a heavy thump or 2 and youll end up with big accums even with the warrm nose coming in sunday after lunch

Wow im waiting on you and clint eastwood obs. Ready to get started and im behind yall in line

Really getting excited we can get a very good front end thump. Radar looks juiced coming up out of upstate ne ga. Quicker we can get going before lunch sunday the better.