NCSNOW

Two things we know are coming. Plenty of Cold and Plenty of Moisture. What we dont know is how theyll time out.

Big uptick 18z gefs for NC 7 days out

Euro is a nice thump backside mtns no doubt next Sunday as polar air comes gangbusters on backside. We need the trough to go neutral quicker. To posotive leaning. If it would we could see those solutions like last night show up again. The ensembles still look good all next week, the icing on the cake would be to score on the sunday event. There is a way for us to do it. Just have to see if the models work toward it over next couple of days.

12z today the Canadian had accumulating snow NW NC from Triad back as early as this coming Friday. See if the crazy uncle cooks up another one tonight. First i saw of a Jan 20 storm was on the canadian at hr 240 this past Thursday.

Sub zero temps are so much more enjoyable when the landscape is white. I remember the coldest of all time mid 80s was in HS. The sounds froze up.

Sounds about right. Hard to get those east of apps. Having to wait on shallow dense cold air to get up and over.

Yep big signal for both. Hopefully we all can score a good week or two of winter.

Seems like 10 years ago, cant remeber but only time i ever saw it. Takes a mamouth artic front to pull it off. Had mod snow for like 15 minutes behind the front and everything froze solid. Temps plummeted like down into low 20s within the hour.

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We can get all the Atlantic Blocking, PV spliting, Daughter Vorticities etc. BUt we have to have the pna + or we will never benefit from the AO and NAO tanking. Lot of chatter for good reason about the HOLY GRAIL Pattern coming up. But we in the SE have to have the pacific cooperate to maximize things

I saw a big SC run, think it was yesterday or day before around this time frame on one of the globals. Talk about a place long overdo in the SE, Thats the one. Although I think a few years back stormsfurry and Charleston did score a couple. Anyway Next weekend is powerball, Woof. Deal where you go big or go home

Interested to see how the STJ upcoming split flow times out these southern sliding pieces of energy. Now that we have a pattern to work in that's conducive to being cold enough for frozen. These HP sliding across and not being interfered with by GL on top of the fire hose that want shut off underneath us, tells me we are fixing to get a belly full of winter threats. I'm betting by mid-late next week will be in another storm thread , Jan 17-19.

QUE The Brick to start us up a thread. He usually has the mojo. Tell you what this will be the second thread a needle timing event this winter with the Cad HP sliding into perfect position right as we have a southern wave sliding west to east underneath us. Tis our season so far, knock on wood!

How bout the Nam. Is it runing poorly and no govt worker around to fix it as well? Or is runing normal and we can rely on it like we normally do, the caveat having to adjust to all its known biases, faults etc. Hate to be looking at it Friday and no warm nose showing up, thinking our column is all snow sounding,then waking up saturday to pinging noise.

Its 2009/2010 reversed. Yall couldnt find ways not to jackpot.

I fully understand where your coming from. This will be different than one of our normal worries you alluded to. We will have NE flow the whole time at the surface. For mby Id say my biggest concern is to end up getting northern fringed due to suppression, which would be good news for you upstate folks. Still think from your area back into NE GA will score frozen. Precip should start before sunrise Sat for yall if my timing is right reading models. Dont hold me to it, but thats another posotive.

Nice little thump on 0z euro.2-4 i40 Nc From mtns to Raleigh area. Continues to not wind up the low, sheared energy.

Ukie stays south and weaker than american guidance.

I have no idea what that mess was at halftime. Thought models where hard to understand. Time has passed me by. Clemson looking good. Gone be flakes flying at the ticker tate parade. Take pics Mack.

This cad isnt gonna erode quick enough and will be locked in. Yes freezing rain is self limiting process as far as sustaining 2m temps below 32, But If you do get freezing rain starting off with temps in the mid to upper 20's, by the time you freeze, get enough latent heat to release because of the process the storm (qpf) is outta here. Anyway Two things I'm siding with is the euro/Ukie idea of weak Miller A and more qpf than what they are advertising with that scenario. Certainly you can get a phase or quicker phase and that changes up sensible weather as far as precip types and amount of qpf. But we are inside 120 mark now and to discount consistent euro/ukie at h5 with other modeling trending toward it isn't the smartest move.

Easily 2 million with lights out if that Canadian verified. You get 1.0 plus freezing Rain and temps in 20's, It will knock power out to 100% of grid. Exactly what happened in Dec 2002. That map is over high populated areas , Charlotte,Triad, Richmond. Ugh, worst case scenario. Anyway lets do another storm with 1.0+ all snow, like those better.

Thanks for posting. Just as I suspected. Thats a good spot for the HP as well, unlike the american suite which has the axis way up in Canada and the primary L in eastern KY/TN.

Has anyone seen the UKIE from overnight? Its usually good at dissecting phased storms. IF its not seeing a phaser like the gfs is showing, then It definitely lends more credence to the euro .

GLL ruins this run. Hiccup hopefully . Way to early to tell. Noticing more an more qpf every run. Not least bit suprised there and betting the streak, id say .5 -1.0 qpf is easilly doable. Just need our HP positioned right and no GLL.

Nope. Its all about the position of the HP up to our NE. How the timing shakes out effects the press of the flow, and in turn will determine the ns vort, potential for phase etc. Models should get a good handle on 5h here in a cycle or two. Right now euro has more modeling in its corner than fv3. But lets see what euro and eps does at 0z tonight and 12z tommorow. Watch the position and timing of the HP . Biggest factor to getting frozen verse unfrozen.