NCSNOW

Since Jan 10 we've been in a favorable MJO and Greensboro has had 6 straight days below normal. All in the -4 to-6 range. Today may make it 7. Anyway we stay within 2 to 3 of AN or BN till Monday and Tuesday which will end up BN. So seeing how we torched Jan 1-10 and how Jan 11-23 will easily end up BN. It matches the MJO cold and warm phases and gives support to what you are stating. Lets see what happens Jan 23-Feb 1. No doubt MJO forecasted to go back in the warm phase. Just pray its not stuck for weeks like it was Mid December to Jan 10. Make no mistake I'm on board with a fantastic pattern continuing from Jan 25- Early March. I say continuing because the pattern changed Jan 11, It just gets better after Jan25th. Bought into weeklies lock , stock n barrel for various reasons not just because weeklies say so. Until I see evidence from the euro camp I've been head faked I refuse to let the GFS change my mind. Especially when the GEFS says is off its rocker. I will be the 1st to call myself out if indeed this winds up going down in flames post Jan 25. No need to wait till FEB 15th etc.

Yep. Sunday was a long shot at best. Mid next week another one. But the money period truly begins in 9 days now and getting closer. Theres no more kicking can past January 24-25. After that one (storm ) rides by Its hammer time day after day. All we have to do is find moisture and presto. We no longer fight WAR or SER after middle of next week and the block is set up top. I miss snow late Jan into Feb, it will be because Im to far north. The even better news is this could last through late Feb/Early March. So good times are coming.

Where have all the clippers gone to this winter? Be nice to see one when we are at max suppresion. Those are the only ones we can get to halfway work east of the apps. The ones that go down into Albabma, Georgia underneath the NC 6,000 ft peaks, then swing back up off the coast.

Ukie could bode well for NE NC and SE VA with this track Sunday/Backside as Cold air flies in.

I've seen -8 month averages from departure before. Rare, but it can happen. He aint out of it yet. Still got 50% winter left.

If that map was on a multiple choice and it said guess the wx pattern: A) la-Nina b) Neutral C) El nino. C would be the last guess

Lol. Confluence all screwed up that run. Nice Miller A track right smack down where we need it. Oh well. Be a different look come tommorow.

Puts down 1 inch camden county and all those little counties Ne NC I cant spell. Check out gfs 0z clown round hr 150 to 153 i beleive.

Hour144 snowing from Ramseur all the way to coast hwy64 north. More ice ne coastal plain changing over

At hr 114gfs leaving alot of energy back in the sw.

Grit you should be making pixr movies. Nice job and wow. If weeklies where barking last week. Thats howl at the moon stuff tonight. Hopefully we dont find a way to train wreck it over the next few weeks.

Check out hr 150,then 156 GFS 18z. And if that dont do you watch what happens when that air hits gulf stream on precip type radar. Telling ya,you can guys can score an inch or two post front sunday night. Dont sleep on it

Tell you whos getting ready to get the ground white come late Sunday/ Monday is the obx. Also wouldnt be suprised to see some Chesapeake bay induced snow in tidewater area. Artic air hits the ocean gonna do the lake effect deal

Id have to back in their forum to see. Apparently some dudes wife or relative is a school teacher and made comment everyone in school system gets their wx from a guy on facebook whos always right. So he looks it up and discovers its Ji, but thats not his real name. Anyways ji gets all his info chatting on here like we do and has been making stellar forecast for a while. Hes got a bigger following than Robert. It was hillarious. Be like us discovering brick was putting out a wx page with over 40,000 followers. Talk about a millie vanillie moment.

Apparently that Ji character in the MA forum has a weather Facebook page and has this big following. No one knew about it till today and the ribbon hes getting is hilarious. People in the DC area are talking like its the only place to get your weather.

Euro ends up placing weekend LP right over Richmond. Think this might benefit NW NC Mtns on backside

Almost a Banana HP, LP would just slide underneth us. Wishfull thinking

Need Euro to get on board. Cause if the SER is there its gonna cut right up to our west. Notice you dont see that on 12z gfs or fv3. So hopefully its gone today on euro and eps

Yep the 10 day euro and eps from 0Z are solid on SER. So thats why tramadoc you see the warmup by next wednesday. Lets all hope that trends away at 12z today. Otherwise we may be finding ourselves head faked again by this post 20th holy grail lock down pattern. Getting a bad feeling in my stomach SER is gonna throw a monkey wrench in things last of Jan into Feb. Clock starts ticking Friday. Have exactly 6 weeks till March1st and we all know what that means. Plus Friday kicks off sun angle season and all that other jibe that comes along with it.

This might trend enough to help eastern NC more than western. we'll see, right now it just looks like a NE paste bomb, SE monsoon, followed by Frigid air.

Heres the Canadian 12z @ 144. Getting closer to what we need to get some backside ( secondary LP) on the front coming through.

Heres 12z GFS at 144: ends up being to late and off coast before we can get the trough to tilt neutral.

You are correct with rain changing to snow history. But this situation is different and isn't a cold chasing Rain. As QC stated yesterday, you have/hoping a wave develops on an artic front. Hopefully we can get the trough to get neutral and deep enough to allow this to occur for our backyard. So its very rare on this side of apps to see cold catch moisture in time, but this scenerio is a little different, plus this isn't a run of the mill front that's gonna be sweeping through.

12z GEFS improves once again.

See if the euro or ukmet can throw us a bone for next weekend. Euro is getting close along with the gefs. I havent checked eps from today. Maybe we can pull a rabit out of the hat.