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January 17, 2018. Below is the stage IV precipitation analysis (verification data) for the event. The color scale is the same as used for the model runs. Below are the 00z and 12z model runs up to the event. The Euro is top left, GFS is top right, GGEM is bottom left, and ICON is bottom right. This gif starts 84 hours before the last run. Precip has already fallen in western areas in the last frame, which is why qpf falls off there.

January 4, 2018. Below is the stage IV precipitation analysis (verification data) for the event. The color scale is the same as used for the model runs. Below are the 00z and 12z model runs up to the event. The Euro is top left, GFS is top right, GGEM is bottom left, and ICON is bottom right. This gif starts 96 hours before the last run.

Dec 9, 2017. Below is the stage IV precipitation analysis (verification data) for the event. The color scale is the same as used for the model runs. Below are the 00z and 12z model runs up to the event. The Euro is top left, GFS is top right, GGEM is bottom left, and ICON is bottom right. This gif starts 60 hours before the last run.

We don't really have a good place to discuss how models did in past events, and sometimes that discussion can clog up other threads. So I'd like to try to give those discussions a thread of their own. I expect people will still talk about past model performance in the forecast and obs threads, but this can be a place to have those discssions if they start getting too off-topic. I'd also like this to be a place to find data on past model performance. To help people remember what models did in the past, I'll try to keep this first post updated with gifs showing the qpf output of the Euro, GFS, GGEM, and ICON runs leading up to snow/ice events. I chose these four models because weather.us has nice maps we can use that zoom in on our region. If I find time, I might add the 3k NAM and Swiss models as well. Unfortunately weather.us does not have maps for the RGEM, HRDPS, or Ukie. If anyone has some they'd like to contribute, please do. I'd like to update this post with actual precipitation maps that we can use to verify model performance. I know CoCoRaHS has some, but as far as I can tell theirs are limited to one state and one day at a time, which isn't very useful for events that take place overnight or aren't entirely contained within one state. If anyone knows of any better maps, please let me know. Links to qpf maps are below. In general I'll try to go back at least 96 hours from the last run before the event, but sometimes that's not possible because the maps start overlapping with a previous event. December 9, 2017 January 4, 2018 January 17, 2018 February 17, 2018 March 7, 2018 March 12, 2018 March 20, 2018 April 7, 2018 December 9, 2018 January 13, 2019