CAPE

Nope. 1.2" here. Hoping to see some reports from Delaware. Best banding has persistently been in Sussex County. Must be some 4' amounts there.

Rehoboth is completely awesome. No official measurement but definitely 8+ with lots of drifts. Winter wonderland at the beach plus bar hopping. So fun.

Took these out in front of the hotel in Rehoboth.

Looking pretty good. Root for the NAM of course lol. Even if it is overdone, almost all other guidance has at least a few inches down your way and over to the beaches.

They were not similar at all in many respects. 1996 was colder, and even though it flipped to sleet for many, it had a long duration cold conveyor of moderate snow after the shallow warm layer moved off. For the storm this year, either you were in the deform band or you weren't. It rapidly weakened when it finally pivoted east, so those that were solidly dry slotted didn't pick up much more accumulation. Also places on the lower eastern shore(Salisbury) had mostly rain from the storm this past January. Pretty sure they did much better in the 96 storm.

15" here for the Jan storm this winter. Dry slotted. 1996 I had 20" despite hours of sleet in the middle.

Feb 2003 Feb 1983 Feb 5, 2010 Dec 2009 Jan 1996 Feb 10, 2010 Jan 1987 Jan 2016

2009-2010 was my fav winter. There are individual events in other winters I liked better than any one of the 3 biggies of that winter, but there was just something magical about it. And getting the big storm before Xmas was something I had never experienced. That was awesome, and just gave me the feeling we were on to something special. Also, the late Jan storm was awesome- 15 degrees and 7" of pure fluff, and the Feb 5th event was already on the radar. Great winter.

The low over the SE moving up off the coast tomorrow and Monday may get close enough to get some snow into your area. Temps may be marginal though. Odds are sometime over the next 10 days you will get some snow there.

Per 21z RAP, best accums still lower So MD and Eastern shore. Oddly this latest run has a local bulls eye over me lol. In general I think this aligns with the ongoing forecast of 1-3".

21z RAP

Not seeing that.

Yup. The 5" on the Euro seems unlikely..thats the Boom potential with this. 1-2 seems doable. If the dynamics arent there, I could see it raining for hours as the temps slowly fall, with some mood fllakes at the end.

Dont look at the 16z RAP...basically nada for SBY eta- 17z looks better, and its the extended RAP so its out of its range a tad. It also tends to run warm, but the warm temps going in and the short window are a concern.

12z Euro looks great esp for the lower shore folks...5" for SBY to coastal DE. 3-4" Lower So MD up to Dover.

I like the Euro solution..it gives me about 2" up here, plus it gives Salisbury 4". WIN

PD II probably. Hard to pick honestly. '79, 83, 96, and the 3 biggies in '09-10 I put ahead of this storm. Its all based on location though!

Per Euro you get more than Westminster ha!

12z Euro snowfall per wxbell- SBY 13 Cambridge 19 Easton 19 Dover 20 Lewes 10-12 Lower So MD 20 GREAT run for the whole area. Most everyone is within a couple inches of 20. Higher amounts in mountains of Western VA

I dont know if I really buy that bulls-eye area. Plus the wxbell maps are overdone. 1-2 feet seems likely, and where the best mesoscale banding sets up will determine where the higher amounts end up.

12z GFS snowfall per wxbell- SBY 11 DOV 17 EASTON 21 DC down to So MD 30+

Hard to say at this point. Where you are near the coast, sleet and even rain at the height is possible. Will start as snow, and it will go back to snow as the low pulls away. Per WxBell looks like 6" at Lewes right at the coast. Just few miles inland its 10-12.

Per WxBell, 0z Euro has 16 for S DE, 10 for SBY, 19 for Cambridge, And 20+ N&W of there. Probably overdone, as I believe most of us will see some sleet, even rain on the lower shore.

Was just looking at the 0z GFS ensembles on wxbell, and they look good. Mean snowfall looks better than 12z, even for lower eastern shore. MSLP looks good as well, not tucked inland at the lower bay like the op. Mean is just off the NC coast and moving NE.

One of my favorite all time storms mainly because of the time of year. So rare to get a storm like that here in the mid part of December. Will we ever see a -NAO like that during the winter again...sigh.