CAPE

Check out the gfs next weekend. We just need some more confluence! LOL I was one who was arguing for confluence for this storm a few days ago. Too much of a "good" thing this time. But many times it is exactly what we need. Of course the position and strength has to be just right.

Lol the models have gotten too good. We haven't seen a shift in 4 days since we lost our 1-2 feet smh Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come.

As jb says....until all the players are out on the field The players have been out on the field, and maintaining their positions, like a vanilla, predictable NFL defense.

Yeah there is just no mechanism to get that low to move NE, or ENE. Its likely going to be heading SE as it exits the coast.

Wont be till 0z till big changes Are we still going with the weenie hail Mary classic: "poorly sampled shortwave moving in from the NPAC"?

We need one of two miracles to occur at this point- 1- the parade of vortices rotating through eastern Canada suddenly disappears or shifts a couple hundred miles east 2- the NS shortwave catches up and phases with the SS energy- not sure this can even happen if the strong NE confluence persists

EPS is totally locked onto a S VA/NC major snowstorm. Looks like the high country of western NC is going to get nuked. The Triad should get hit pretty hard too. Not sure how much change is realistic at this point. Very little probably. Maybe a period of light snow/mix from lower S MD over towards SBY.

Yeah thats kinda what I figured. I was looking at h5 the whole time thinking- this is crap. I was a little surprised when I took a peak at the surface.

^Thats as close as it gets, but a decent tick north.

CMC is a poser, and it always folds like a tent.

Its probably not good when the northern edge of the precip shield is a straight line tilted NW to SE with a low on the SC coast.

Its actually NAM extrapolation hallucination time right now.

Agreed. Thus why I said not to focus on any one discrete vort. Regardless of model to model/run to run variability with timing/location/strength of the individual lobes, the outcome is the same- too much confluence and too suppressive.

Another interesting read from Mt Holly this AM. They are not quite convinced that the models are currently depicting the ultimate outcome. Operational guidance seems to be converging on a solution in which a secondary low develops on the coast Monday night in vicinity of the first low 24 hours prior. The model tendencies are similar to the first low (CMC farthest north; ECMWF to the south), but the GFS is slower with this second low (an obvious result of the slower trend to the central U.S. perturbation). What does all of this mean? My conclusion is that the models converging on a solution may be a tempting lure, but I am not biting quite yet. The perturbations in play here remain offshore (prior to the 00z simulations, anyway), so I suspect some decent initialization errors are contributing to model volatility. Perhaps as importantly, the complex interactions of these perturbations are extremely sensitive to positioning/orientation/strength of the individual phenomena, which is a telltale sign to use caution in the use of deterministic solutions as a forecast starting point. I used a healthy blend of continuity, ensemble guidance, and multi-model consensus as a starting point, only subtly modifying the forecast to account for the increased southern-track consensus. Finally, I should note that we are still in the time window in which models tend to be too far south and too progressive with the southern- stream portion of these systems, so I maintained a broad-brush approach to distribution of PoPs (and timing) as a result of the remaining large uncertainty.

Probably yes. And even though they have been sort of all over with the discrete pieces of energy, the general outcome is the same. I was hoping we would see things become a bit more amped out west with a sharper s/w dropping in to interact with the southern energy- something like the CMC had. I guess thats still a possibility. Still need some relaxation to our NE though.

Yeah there still could be some timing/strength errors with that parade of vortices. and we are still 4 days out, but the guidance certainty seems to have converged on a general solution over the past several runs- and it doesn't include much if any snow for our region. We may be getting close to fork time.

I never expect the 'off' runs of the GFS op to start a notable trend (hides). Tonight's 0z run is gonna be YUGE.

Heck of a write up from Mt Holly in their AFD ( in addition to keeping up with the over performing Norlun which produced up to 7" of snow in coastal NJ)- To be blunt, I am not buying what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1) force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern- stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough, suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important feature. With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern- stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture.

I am right in that hole over the upper Delmarva. No rain here in 2 weeks. Been running the sprinkler but grass still getting torched. Oh well, pretty used to it, as the rain we get this time of year is of the feast/famine variety. With the high sun and typical July heat, my yard cant survive without water for more than a few days.

Noticeably dry here in the past week. Soil getting a bit dusty for the first time in months. I think the last big event was a couple weeks ago with the 2 part deal in late March- mostly rain/sleet here for part one and the heavy wet snow for part 2. Been really nothing significant since then. 0.11" for April.

Yeah the biggest issue with winter drought for most in this forum is it = little snow lol

Cant imagine its still abnormally dry here, but I guess its possible. I ended up with 3.8" for Jan.

Was that the total for the whole event? I saw some reports from southern DE of up to 7" from Friday night alone. I would love to see some other event totals from the lower Delmarva.

You might get another 3-6 today.