CAPE
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Yeah the cold held but precip busted low, more so in eastern areas. although generally less was forecast here. Still a bit surprising my totals are going to be half of what was forecast, and not because of the warm nose, which also was not very well forecast. Still snowing here with a bit of sleet mixed in, and not much more to come per radar.
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And I was getting pixie dust interleaved with dry notches the whole time until recently. Best snow of the day the past hour or so here. Still going to under perform per forecasts(not my expectations).
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Guidance generally all had less precip for eastern areas during the cold part of the event. Another reason I was not at all enthused about this. And ofc the model snowfall maps were completely awful.
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Rippin' thinnies here now. A least its finally rippin' something lol.
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Its kinda like Bud vs Bud light. But dont drink either one.
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Oh its gonna happen. Not until its legit snowing though. See if my yard can manage to find the anti-snow hole for once this winter lol.
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Time to switch to coffee stout. It's whats for breakfast!
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33/14 Let it thump
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That is a great graphic by Don. Yeah the big storm in 2016 had the dry slot which seemed to be missed by forecasters. This storm was sort of a 2 part deal, and that is always tricky. Part one worked out well here- I was thinking 5-6 and I ended up a bit over 5. Yesterday afternoon/evening was a complete whiff, and even my updated forecast at 330 pm was still calling for 2-4", but not a flake fell.
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I missed all the part 2 action yesterday here. Poorly modeled. All guidance, including the 12z Euro had around 0.4 here with the coastal ccb. By the time the UL energy and the coastal congealed, it was all to my SE. Betwixt and between. I did get 5.2" from part one. Congrats to all who got the part 2 'surprise'. Amazing pics. Radar was frustrating to watch from here though lol.
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Just noticed my forecast has been updated. Now 3-5" today and 1-2 tonight. Not sure about that, although some of the 'today's snow' would have already fallen I guess? Strange way to do a noon update to a forecast if that's the case.
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Light snow still falling. I went out and shoveled while there is a bit of a lull. 4.8" Love the long duration of the event. Perpetual snow. The Upper energy and coastal development might offer some dynamics that the first part of the storm has lacked. Should be some impressive banding.
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4.5" here. Been on the edge of heavier stuff to my south for a while, but finally into some 30 dbz stuff now.
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Yeah. 3k shootin' some heroin now too.
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If you are in Easton I wouldn't worry at all. Closer to the coast for sure. Eastern Sussex etc will likely mix or change to rain for a while.
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Damn 3k NAM gone a little nuts too.
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Its snowing! Woop! Its snowing! Woop! Its snowing! Woop! Be back next hour with another update.
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27 with steady snow falling. Small to medium sized flakes. Probably a quarter inch. Looking pretty out there.
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32/20 here
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Updated Map
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Pretty darn good model agreement for S MD to get pummeled. Good for Wes.
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Yup. All the central and upper eastern shore counties aren't either. The accumulation forecast for my yard has 6" on the upper end. If I get the 6, I don't think it would look any different if my county was shaded in pink on a map instead of purple.
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It doesn't really matter if your area is in a warning or not. It wont change the outcome.
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They aren't going to change anything until late this afternoon is my guess. Snow wont get going here till evening, they have headlines out and advisories in place, and the forecast accumulation ranges on the upper end already cover warning criteria (6 or 7 inches depending on location).
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Looks like most of the region will be upgraded to WSW later. Potential for 6" exists for most places based on latest runs.
