CAPE

Light rain here and 44. That's 5 degrees above the forecast high. Be surprised if I see a few mangled flakes or sleet pellets.

Ha maybe! I know very little about the physics of the HRRR. What I do know its it is prone to dramatic shifts over a few runs, and it is next to useless beyond 3-4 hours. So I guess what I am saying is, I wouldn't worry about that particular model. There are enough subtle changes in the more reliable guidance over the past 2-3 model cycles to put up some caution flags though. Just for a "quick and dirty" look, check out the snow map over last 3 runs of the GFS on TT. Don't look at the amounts, just the trend. It now has all the significant snow focused more NW, as expected in this setup. I said yesterday I thought the ICON looked reasonable, and it has pretty much held.

Just looked at the HRRR for the first time. Not too inspiring lol. Of course, it's the HRRR.

Admittedly I don't have a whole lot of interest at this point, but I skimmed through the guidance this morning, and other than maybe the Euro, everything looked a bit warmer to me. Likely won't make much difference far N and W, but around I-95 it will. After the initial onset of precip, which will likely be rain, the best chances for places like DC to pick up an inch or 2 is clearly this evening, when rates pick up and some dynamic cooling occurs. Beyond that, warming aloft will be moving in from the SE, and with surface temps probably just above freezing, p-type will transition to more of a sleet/rain mix for I-95 and points SE.

Who cares. The 12km pummels me in death. Thanks Reaper!

I have 6 acres, and where the house is located is "high" and the soil is well drained. My driveway is a mess though, and there is a wetland back in the woods. Mosquito breeding ground in Spring.

Might be a little on the light side, but temps are a factor. Definitely a more realistic look than the 12Km NAM.

I just hope my yard sees the precip hole that has managed to occur every time it snows this year. I really don't need another inch of rain.

The 18z ICON looks pretty reasonable to me. Has the heaviest snow NW where expected, and the snow maps seem indicative of lower ratios given the marginal temps.

Well at least the 3km NAM seems reasonably sane. It is somewhat warmer aloft, and per the 10:1 snow maps it has the heavier snowfall clearly NW of the fall line, as expected.

Minor changes, Yoda. That's not why the clown maps went nuts with the "snow".

If he wanted to "show the changes", he would not lazily be posting the snow maps. If you look upstairs, there isn't much difference at all. Run-to run noise.

Yeah I am totally buying the 5" it gives my yard in 3 hours, with the 850 mb 0c line right over me and heading NW. Those maps are terrible.

Those snow maps are highly imperfect, and usually biased towards frozen on the edge imo. Probably will be pretty brutal because of the marginal surface temps and the warming at 850 mb at the height. The thing that might help those right on the line are heavy precip/dynamics. Hard to know how that will play out until game time. In this case it's probably wise to go with elevation, so if right on the fall line or east, keep expectations low.

I will sleep like a baby tonight, lol. Speaking from lots experience this winter, anyone right near that 2" line on that tight gradient, it usually fails not in your favor.

I will likely relocate somewhere in the next 5 years, and I wish I could move it, because I cant find anything I like as much when I browse homes online.

I am rooting for progressive and weaker so everyone gets cold rain like my yard is guaranteed to get. But then, I am a selfish dick. And bitter, very bitter.

The Founders Breakfast stout is a good one and available all year. Another, more local, coffee stout is the Rise-Up from Evolution (Salisbury). Not sure how available it is up your way.

Believe me I am not holding out much hope on this one. Gonna keep the incredible streak of cold rain events going. How is your stock of Imperial coffee stout looking?

Overview from Mount Holly in their AM AFD: While there is still some uncertainty regarding the actual surface low track, the guidance has shifted more southeastward. This appears to be due to today`s storm getting a bit stronger east of New England, plus the 00z ECMWF in the northern stream presses the lead short wave farther east. This lessens the mid level divergence in the height fields and pushes more zonal thus keeping the southern short wave farther south (more toward the GFS solution). Other guidance is also a bit more south and east. This would tend to favor some colder thermal profiles, however a more southern track may also lessen the dynamic forcing to some extent especially the farther northwest one goes. Our region however is still forecast to get within the favorable right entrance region of a 250 mb jet. This will also help to strengthen the surface low as it tracks to our east. In addition, the incoming amplifying trough will produce a period of widespread large scale ascent, which will be augmented by a zone of stronger 850-700 mb frontogenetic forcing especially during the first half of Sunday night.

I am ofc rooting for more of a GFS type solution, with a further SE track and later development. This type of evolution might get the mid levels cold enough for some snow here, probably towards the end of the event. Low probability though. Better chances along I-95.

No idea. No feel for the mood, as I have barely had time to skim through the models, let alone the threads. Maybe because of that, I have a 'fresh' POV. This set up blows for the coastal plain. That's pretty much it. There would have to be pretty significant 'positive' changes on guidance in a pretty short time-frame for this to become a decent event for places other than the NW areas. Not impossible, but unlikely IMO.

Yeah, if I lived in Manchester, MD, I would feel pretty damn good right now lol.

Worst winter ever here..not really but still, it totally blows. Quit bitchin'.

Lol why do people keep posting useless snow maps? 2-4" is not falling I-95 points SE in any reasonable scenario. 100% chance of zero snow here.