CAPE

Weenie Drama Index?

No idea what the "issue" was so hard to speculate. You might be correct about running another simulation with the original data. I would have guessed whatever correction was implemented would be incorporated in the next edition, which is Sept 1 I think.

Yup. IMO at this stage and into early fall, the primary potential influences on the upcoming winter to keep an eye on are in the Pacific- the PDO and ENSO state. HL blocking is notoriously difficult to predict at range. I think the NAO has been predominately in the negative phase for 4 straight months. Pretty much neutral now but the guidance is a bit split on where it goes from here. The CFS favors a continuation of a -NAO into Sept. What are the odds that continues into fall and winter? I will leave the AMO/QBO/solar minimum etc. analysis/correlations to others. Without digging into it, statistically, my gut says it isn't very likely.

None of these LR/Climate tools are very reliable, as we all know from the perpetually epic EPS weeklies runs from last winter. That being said, recent runs of the CFS have advertised some big time HL blocking similar to the CanSIPS, but mostly for the back half of winter. Fun too look at and dream a little as we trudge through the dog days.

No worries. I am the one who first posted about it here when it first came out. Does not appear to have been updated on TT- same initialization time, and the h5 panels for DJF look the same. The updated (fixed) run seems to have the same look overall based on the Ventrice post.

No x 2.

It appears the initialization issue has not changed the overall 500 mb idea. Its August. Its freaking hot. This is feel good stuff until we get to mid October when we might start to get some actual legit clues about how early winter will behave. The 2 indices to monitor over the next couple months are ENSO and PDO. eta- and SAI of course.

I don't hate the look in the EPAC and around AK for Dec and Jan. If we don't get much cooperation from the AO/NAO, we are gonna need a generally favorable PAC for a chance at a decent winter around here.

That one was forgettable here lol. I appreciated it for the historic nature, but the track was too far west and it turned to 40 degree rain after 7-8" of heavy wet snow. Dry slotted after that. What was left froze and left an iceberg for a day or so.

Yeah the only BIG events I recall when I was living in Carroll County were the Feb 1979 storm(PD I) and the Feb 1983 storm. Lost plenty of brain cells since then, but those clearly stand out. Looks like some of the biggest events in recent times occured in my present location before I moved here lol.

Eastern areas got destroyed. Wow. I knew it was a big NE storm, but did not realize there was such a high impact for the coastal plain down this way.

I don't recall the 78 storm at all. Again I was in Carroll county, and that area was on the western fringe of heavy snow, so a 6-8" storm with some wind would not stand out as much in memory as a storm like the Blizzard of 1979.

Satellite image for Blizz of 79. Looks a lot like BOMB CYCLONE from 2018 that hit the immediate coast. Main difference is the track. IIRC, models back then had it tracking further offshore until the end, thus is was a surprise for many and forecasters were scrambling.

I was a kid in Carroll county at the time. That storm probably locked me in as a weather geek for life. Looking at the map, kinda got fringed lol. I recall the total being right around 20". Areas around the bay got clobbered.

Mount Holly's latest take.. Not sure this will pan out. This looks like a graceful step down to what will be a lame event. Most of the action now looks like it will be well south in the Wakefield, VA forecast area. Convection and an associated convectively enhanced shortwave trough is located across the Ohio Valley and moving eastward toward our region. Some showers have already moved into the region from the west. Will expect to see this activity continue through the morning hours with coverage and intensity increasing as the day progresses. This will lead to quite a bit more cloud cover than previously expected, especially across the northern half of the area. As a result, confidence has decreased for this area to see much in the way of destabilization this afternoon. This will preclude any severe weather or excessively heavy rainfall threat for the northern portion of the forecast area. Therefore, we have shrunk the size of the Flash Flood Watch and removed all northern NJ and Lehigh Valley counties. The heaviest rainfall is currently forecast to fall from northern Delmarva east across southern NJ where training of heavy thunderstorms appears more likely at this time. Farther south across Delmarva and far southern NJ, considerable destabilization still appears to be probable, especially if excessive cloud cover remains to the north. MLCAPE values of 1500- 2000 with 35-40 kts of deep layer shear are still forecast across the areas with the most destabilization. In this case, the severe weather threat remains in play with all hazards possible (damaging winds/isolated tornadoes/large hail), but damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. SPC has removed the enhanced risk from our area, but Delmarva and extreme southern NJ remain in the slight risk with the marginal risk still covering SE PA and central/southern NJ.

Happens less than a snowstorm in DC.

Not a surprise seeing the upgrade to Enhanced given the look on the models the past 2 days. I am slightly interested, but these threats rarely amount to much more than a gust of wind, some T&L, and maybe some heavy rain, outside of a few isolated areas. Need a derecho in these parts for something widespread.

Ninos come in many flavors, and can certainly fail(like last winter for many) or can be on the stronger side and torchy like 2015-16. The top indicator for cold and snow for the greater DC region is a sustained -AO through the winter months. Doesn't guarantee anything, and does not necessarily correlate to "big" winter storms, but it usually brings the anomalous cold, and increases the probability of snow events overall for the lower elevations of mid atlantic. Ofc the trifecta of -AO/-NAO and a moderate Nino is ideal, but rare.

CFS has not been hating us for the upcoming winter. Been pretty consistent with a big EPO ridge and suggestive of cold air intrusions into the eastern half of the US. Lately it has trended to a neutral looking NAO, possibly an east based -NAO, for Dec and Jan, and then for Feb it does this..

Excluding the far western highlands, no one should ever predict a cold and snowy winter in this region.

A little over 12".

I will gladly roll the dice with a neutral ENSO, even a weak Nina. Be hard pressed to match the failure of last winter in my yard.

Just for fun and fwiw- Latest CFS runs aren't bad, as long as you look more at the height lines and don't get hung up on the anomalies too much. Suggestive of an intact PV for the first half of winter, then some displacement with cold dumping into much of Canada, especially SE portion. Looks like a combo of PV perturbation/cross polar flow. Feb would be pretty interesting. Overall the HL look is not great, probably neutral to +AO/NAO, but the E/N PAC looks pretty good throughout.

I don't recall the shaded height anomalies having that jaggy/rippled look before, but then I don't often look at this model. Usually the LR/climate models are overly smoothed. Not sure if this is an indication of the "issue" its having. Fwiw, the 2m temp anomalies are a pretty good match to what is being advertised at h5. Colder east for all of winter.

Not bad. At this point, the winter looks to be a la Nada, er neutral. I will take it. Even if it ends up cold neutral, or a weak Nina, my area can do okay. Can hardly do worse than last winter here, Anything but a moderate/strong Nina, which seems pretty unlikely at this juncture. Hopefully the QBO combined with the solar min will tilt things in our favor in the HL region. If we end up weak Nina the tendency for NS dominance will likely be the biggest challenge,