CAPE

18z GFS is a better version of 12z. Thorough soaking for the region from Tuesday to Thursday.

18z 12km NAM looks better for Mon into Tuesday for eastern areas- mostly just to my SE, but better overall than the 12z run. Still looks good for west of I-95.

Perfect early Oct day. 61 at 4pm.

Pretty strong and well placed little shortwave on the 12z run. Was there at 0z, but weaker and less defined, and nothing happening at the surface. Lets see how that evolves in future runs.

Yeah with a very strong shortwave around midweek, which is new. When I made that post the run was only out to hour 78, and there is virtually nothing with the actual front east of I-95, which is quite a change from a couple runs ago.. Now I can monitor the "next threat' and watch it dwindle away to nothing

Early week rain chances continue to look pretty pathetic for I-95 and points east on the 12z NAM and GFS.

I really should have posted it there. My bad.

I know. What was I thinking?

I have no patience for that lol. I did get one by that method one time just being in the right place/right time- chopped that sucker in half with a shovel. The spring-loaded traps work best in my experience, but persistence is required, and even if you get one, there are plenty more.

So I reseeded my back yard 6 weeks ago, after the last significant rain, and it hasn't rained since(well, a half inch in that span). I have been nursing it along with constant watering, and it's up and looking great, although probably a bit shallow rooted given the drought. And now the moles. I would be fine with them doing the normal tunneling and creating ridges- easy enough to spot and set traps- but because it is so dry a few inches down(I am guessing) they come topside and go around the whole yard scratching/slightly digging down(trying to 'sniff' out earthworms) and ripping out the new grass in the process. Between all the trees, long dry periods in mid summer, and moles, just can't effing win with grass here lol.

Yeah 6z GFS gets a little precip over eastern areas verbatim. The most likely scenario is that next front will simply shunt the low out, but definitely some uncertainty and some other possibilities looking at the means. It will mostly come down to timing.

This is a little interesting. The offshore low on the 0z Euro looks to back closer to the coast under the ridge to the north. Has an inverted trough look. Might be worth watching in future runs.

I had a dream that I woke up to a soaking rain. I woke up to the usual desert, but at least it feels a bit like a high desert. 45. That ties the coldest low so far this fall.

Recent runs of the CFS seem to be coming around to the CanSIPS idea of a favorable EPAC and building +h5 heights up top, with lower heights in the east. November is just a few weeks away.. Maybe an early season high elevation snowfall not out of the question.

Let's get this party started.

I'll be sure not to look.

I think it's about time to either change the thread title, or make a new winter discussion thread. @WxUSAF

We will probably have a -AO/-NAO, +PNA/-EPO for most of the winter and it will be in the 40s and 50s for highs.

Starting to resemble the CanSIPS, esp mid to late winter. It would be funny(and totally acceptable) if the CanSIPS ends up being correct with the general h5 look it has been advertising. It sure has been consistent.

I noticed Mount Holly is less impressed with the chances of "heavy rain" for here next week. Now my forecast says chance of showers lol. Ofc I expected this, and in the end it will be a pity shower or some drizzle, with the main energy staying well west and heading up into NE. At least temps will be normal.

lol I thought you were criticizing this sentence: “Whether or not it’s snowstorms, ice storms or mixed events, I do feel this is going to be an active year for the Northeast,” he said. That caught my eye because I read the bolded first and then read up. I didn't even notice the offending sentence. That one is indeed incorrect. eta- I am a bit of a grammar nazi myself(mostly homophones), but I am more lenient in forum threads

Was 72 here this morning when I left for work and 69 now. Been overcast all day. TY BDCF. A few days ago it looked like today would be around 90.

That "forecast " sucks either way. It's (it is) Farmer's Almanac level garbage.

I always thought "it's" was a contraction for "it is".

CanSIPS has been all over it for multiple runs. Gets legit progressing through this month. QBO dropped again, and along with the solar min, and persistence, I am a bit more optimistic than previous winters where the models were constantly engaging in false advertisement.