CAPE

Yeah it sure is. Almost NAM like. Gets my yard on the half inch line.

From Mount Holly- Our region should be on the northwestern edge of the clouds and the precipitation associated with the system from late Saturday night into Sunday. We will continue to mention a chance of rain for northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. While the NAM has a track closer to the shore, the skill of the NAM is limited at that range, so have gone with a non-NAM blend through this period. Consequently, do not expect any significant wind concerns for our land zones with Nestor. lol poor NAM gets no respect . Usually deservedly so.

Yes our area does often "overperform" in that area. 36-37 is probably the lowest we go tonight, so maybe some scattered areas of slushy frost lol.

This.

Interesting. At the same time they were brewing the original Kujo, they had a cold press coffee porter, one of their limited offering "brewhouse rarities". It was excellent. The current Kujo coffee Porter is decent IMO, but nothing like that cold press coffee porter. And ofc, they never came up with another true imperial stout to replace the original Kujo. Kind of an eff up to me.

If I were there, I would ask why they stopped making the original Kujo, a great imperial stout, and then brought it back as a porter.

It's the Porter though, right? I can get that here. I would kill for the Kujo Imperial Stout lol. That is defunct though I think. Either way, Kent Island sounds good. I will be there next Thursday for a blood drive. They always tell you to drink plenty of fluids after you donate. Less blood, less alcohol required.

I need to get there. My first happy hour beer today was their coffee porter- Kujo- which originally was an imperial stout. I loved that beer. Was kinda pissed when they stopped making it. The porter is pretty good, but not even close to the Kujo stout.

18z NAM looks as juicy as this NE Hazy IPA I am polishing off.

12z Euro looks pretty dry from about DC points N and NE, similar to the GFS. Looks like some influence from high pressure to the north- subsidence/somewhat drier air. Storm only gains so much latitude then hits a wall and slides off the coast.

Yeah I would sign up for that. Nice area of moderate rain from around DC to Dover.

12z GFS generally has a quarter inch or less for most areas. The greater than half inch rains are in the tidewater and lower eastern shore.

Forecast here for Sunday is rain likely now. Probably not a lot, but another tick north and might get into the edge of the heavier stuff.

18z NAM is acceptable for the tropical turned extratropical coastal low for Sunday imby.

Freaking windy here. Quite a few small branches down. All this wind is drying out the newly moistened soil lol. I just dug a hole to plant a small evergreen, and despite 2.5" of rain since Sunday, the soil is literally bone dry a couple inches below the surface. Need. More. Rain.

I said the same thing in a post early this morning. Also, this is like a trial run- we need to see if these great advertised h5 looks verify in real time. That rarely ever happened last winter. So here is a 12z EURO Ens mean h5 height anomaly panel for late month. Another beauty.

That dude is at least half full of shiit. Some might even say his SAI theory is akin to selling snake oil. Always an excuse when it fails, and then he manages to take credit when it turns out cold and snowy despite the SAI/AO correlation not working out.

Other than monitoring ENSO, the thing to watch this time of year is the AO. Always a good thing to see the emerging cold season PV get perturbed early and often.

lol I'm good now. All in the rear view mirror. I wouldn't have really cared much, but the dry spell kicked into high gear right after I reseeded. The endless watering has finally ended.

Yeah I noticed that. Looking at the wider view it extends across to the eastern shore as well.

Check it for dirt/tree gunk and crusty bugs, or spiders looking for places to overwinter. That is usually the issue when mine doesn't work. Had a spider and all its meal remnants lodged underneath and it couldn't tip back in the summer.

The guidance has come into better agreement on the Sunday coastal. Looks like a nice hit for SE VA, but probably just a glancing blow for SE portions of our region. Next legit chance of rain comes with the front next Tuesday.

0z GEFS has a perfectly placed west-based block centered over the Davis Strait at the end of the month. 0z EPS is very similar, but with the highest heights a bit further east, and an even more impressive look in the EPAC. Pretty strong signal for early season cold. This is like practice- let's see if these very favorable advertised h5 looks actually verify - and hopefully we see these same looks on the LR ens guidance a month or so from now.

1.95" here. Still raining moderately. A real soaker. eta- 2.07" today and 2.47" since Sunday. A good week.

Euro looks similar to the CMC for Sun and into early next week.