CAPE

I assume he is mostly referring to the ENSO. Even though it is officially neutral, and expected to remain so for fall and winter, there may be some residual atmospheric Nino-like effects. I am keeping an eye on the QBO. Be interesting to see where August ends up. Looks like a steady move towards neutral currently. Even if it doesn't go negative, a positive QBO becoming less positive as we head into the winter months correlates to at least somewhat colder in the east. That plus near solar minimum certainly would be a net positive. Ofc we also have Cohen's hocus pocus to look forward to as another possible clue about the winter AO state.

I decided to rent a tiller. My soil is mostly sand and silt, and has gotten very compacted over the years. It drains excessively well and the combo of full sun on one side of the yard and competition from all the trees makes it very difficult for grass to survive the brutal mid-late summer period. Hopefully I can get this new grass to establish well over the next couple months and develop deeper roots for next Spring.

This time of year is fine to get started. Mid Sept is a bt late for here. I am in the woods. Need the grass to get established before the leaves come down. Too damn many to do all the removal with a blower, so I mow/mulch periodically until December. Grass needs to take it.

59 was the low here. Perfect weekend to begin the scorched yard rebuild. A lot of tilling and raking yesterday. Put a batch of seed down this morning.

And if you must have snow, be prepared to chase. Luckily, places that average 90-120" are a 3-5 hour drive, depending on your location. And then there is the occasional odd beach blizzard chase.

58. Awesome morning.

64 here with some light rain. Not a bad event overall. 0.9" so far counting last evening's t-storm. Much needed, and more than I thought I would end up with. eta- looks like 0.95" for the total.

Decent rain shower here in Easton. Looking at radar, a bit of convection firing and moving over my yard after being dry all morning. Mesos generally have not done well with the persistent area of rain showers moving along the front. NAM especially weakened/dissipated it too quickly. Lets see where the next round blossoms- still looks to be mostly down towards eastern VA.

Latest NAMs dissipate the showers moving through northern areas now and then develop convection with the trailing vort max well south in eastern VA. Not much of anything this afternoon/evening for the greater DC-Balt area and points east.

Euro and 12K NAM like southern DE for heavy rain today. 2"+.

It looks like Millington really did get hit pretty hard lol. I called that Winding down here now. Not nearly enough for the parched soil here, but better than the usual zilch. 0.35"

A rarity over the past 3 weeks- on the inside looking out. 3 miles SW there is nothing. Just made it lol. Not gonna get a lot, but its raining pretty good.

Lots of T&L Great wind from that outflow. Lots of stuff blowing out of the trees. Lets see if I can manage a little rain on the southern extent..gonna be real close.

Head up to Millington if you want to see some rain from this line. Or wait until tomorrow and take a drive down to OC or VA beach.

lol I am really good at this now. That line will miss me a few miles to the north, You see what DC got?

And that line will never make it here. NPZ desert-east will be preserved.

Pretty modest line overall. It will likely weaken further as it moves SE tonight- there is another perturbation behind it that will tend to cause weakening, and will fire off new convection into tomorrow further south and east. There will be a general dead zone in between those getting some decent storms now, and areas in eastern VA that will get it tomorrow. At least that is how the models have it playing out. Hope they are wrong, but I doubt it.

Agreed. Way too early to get into the subtleties. That general look at this juncture is a good one. Lets see what its got in another 10 days.

Next 5 days lol.

The rain potential for our area with this front as trended to complete lameness. Most models have my yard getting zero to maybe a quarter inch. I will take the under. Oh well, bring on the refreshing air. I will pretend I am in a high desert area for the weekend.

Oh I didn't see this coming.

Radar is really pathetic considering the watch. I mean, I was expecting a complete zero today of all the days this week. <Shrugs shoulders>.

I was thinking exactly this on my drive home. Nothing like the last several days when there were towers all over the place.

I am slightly optimistic on a winter -NAO because it has been persistent throughout the summer, the QBO as we head into fall looks somewhat favorable, and we are at/near solar min. Also I believe we have had exactly 1(maybe 2) out of the last 24 winter months with an official -NAO. So we have Showme's WDI going for us.

It was posted here I believe. Pretty nice looking PAC, and EPO ridge, but meh NA.