CAPE

Forgot to mention a cold front and remnants of a major hurricane that will produce no rain.

Yep. The dairy farm here sprays liquefied cow shiit.

I generally leave the AC on until I have to turn the heat on. It obviously doesn't run much in the early fall. I hope to get a few days where I can open the windows, but farm country doesn't smell too good this time of year.

QBO this time last year was strongly negative trending less negative, then went into positive territory through winter. That is regime B in the image above. It was absolutely out of phase from what we want ideally for a weak PV. Again no one index is the end all, but we didnt have it in our favor last winter(assuming the desired outcome is colder than average).

As of now, it appears we are in the "C" category, which is second only to A. Ofc that trend needs to continue over the next few months.

Can't look at any one element in isolation, but the QBO trending from positive towards neutral(maybe even negative) heading into winter is better than it being super negative and trending less negative into fall and winter. That combined with a near solar minimum lends some support for a weaker winter PV/ -AO, which is also more conducive for development of a -NAO.

Mine is running now. I reseeded over a week ago lol. So far, so good. Other than stressing my well pump for a few hours a day. Some significant rain would be nice. eta- ofc now I am waiting for the moles to start effing it all up.

Would be nice if our rain prospects were better during the transition. Doesn't look impressive overall, but hopefully a few can cash in.

He messaged me. I assume he has been reading some of the threads. Hope he starts posting again.

Yeah not sure how it goes from that Dec look to what it has for Jan. Complete flip up top. Ofc its the CFS- give it a few days and it will offer up something else.

Latest runs of the CFS now look remarkably similar to the last run of the CanSIPS.. HL blocking galore for Jan and Feb. Still waiting for the new edition of the CanSIPS. Probably will look much different lol.

The QBO is heading in the right direction. 30 mb index dropped from 14.36 in June to 10.96 in July to now 9.97 for August. Hopefully it keeps moving towards neutral as we get deeper into fall. eta- thanks to @mitchnick for pointing out a flaw in the data I originally posted. Fixed now.

Picked up 0.14" in a quick downpour. Mostly the usual though- lots of thunder, a healthy looking cell completely decaying on approach, and near hits.

I was mostly just being facetious. Wouldn't surprise me if the general dryness continued for a while though.

Recent CFS runs think the next month will feature slightly above normal temps and slightly below normal precip. So yeah, effin hot and dry.

Didn't mean to crap up the Obs thread with lawn talk. Maybe a mod could move the recent posts to banter or the lawn/garden thread.

The original(what I use) is probably the most drought tolerant, and best for seeding a new lawn. https://www.jonathangreen.com/categories/grass-seed-products.html All their products and where to buy.

@frd Since you are overseeding, maybe try the Black Beauty Ultra- supposed to be great for overseeding. All the Black Beauty products are pricey, but there is nothing greener, and it does well in both sun and shade.

Me too. Love moss. One side of the yard is mostly moss, and the front and entire north side of the house is a carpet. Its only the back yard I try to keep a decent lawn, but one side gets a ton of sun and the other side barely any. I am back to Jonathan Green Black Beauty. The original stuff I put down years ago eventually burned up in the sun, but the new version is supposed to be more drought tolerant. It really does do well in the shade(as advertised). Every other fescue I have tried since has been a complete fail after one summer.

I have to get going early due to being in the middle of the woods. I will end up overseeding a bit in areas I missed, but I need the new grass to be well established before the leaves start coming down. Ofc its mostly a futile endeavor here with the moles, competition from the trees, and the well drained soil. It's a rinse and repeat this time every year until I get sick of it again and just let nature take its course lol. Clover!

Yeah its very dry. I went ahead and did my re-seeding last weekend after we got that nice rain, not a drop since. Grass is coming up but I am stuck watering for a couple hours each day now. Need effing rain.

Decent morning for the first day of fall. 64. Very comfortable.

Nice morning. Low of 57.

What a great day. Mid 70s and breezy. Even had a brief late afternoon light shower. Currently 67 as the sun goes down.

When I put seed down I prefer it to not rain too much. I can control the amount of water and not worry about a tropical deluge redistributing the seed before it germinates. Nice thing about using a tiller- plenty of loose soil to rake in the seed. I still topped it off with some straw. I am about 2/3 done with my repair for now. I do it in stages. Depending on how this works out, I may overseed the shady areas in early spring. I can draw a line down the middle of my back yard lol. Full sun on one side, grass always burns to hell, then transitioning to low sun/shade on the other where moss predominates.