CAPE

It overwhelmed because the Nino was a late developing, weak, diffuse, POS lol. That's one explanation. As for why the MJO was persistently strong/active, hard to say with certainty. I am no expert but warmer SSTs and enhanced tropical forcing/convection in specific areas of the tropics could act to "interfere" with/suppress activity in the ENSO region. You could also look upstairs over the tropics. QBO phase maybe?

It's early. I generally like how things look in the ENSO region right now- neutral but the SST distribution has the anomalous warmth focused more in the western Pacific. If that holds we could end up with the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish than last winter, assuming the MJO or some other forcing mechanism doesn't overwhelm again. Looking at the SSTs in the PDO region, it looks like it may be heading in the direction we want(da blob!), but its difficult to tell at this juncture and we have seen this somewhat nebulous look before, only to have the anomalies dissipate/shift moving deeper into Fall. Again it's early. Also have to like the QBO trend as we head towards winter this year.

Find anything particularly good? Any surprises?

18z GEFS doesn't look bad at all. Op runs do what op runs do at range.

As long as the Ravens come out on top

Flacco lol. Ugly game. Actually give him some credit for driving them down to get the lead, after a 2 point conversion, with like 35 seconds left. Then the D blew it on a 4th and 15. 52 yd FG. Bears win. Broncos are awful.

Yeah they had a bad series or 2. Part of that is the injury to Smith, but they need to step it up next week for sure. I don't expect them to win, which is why they really needed this game. They should have won the game there last year, and they didn't because of a big play at the end on a 4th down by Mahomes/the secondary gacking it up. Easy to credit Mahomes, but the D was in position and simply didn't make the play.

A bit of a sloppy game by the Ravens but they did play an actual NFL team this week. Pretty solid effort by Lamar- more representative of that we should expect from him. Still, nearly 300 yards passing, 2 TDs (no picks again) and 120 yds rushing- not many other QBs are going to put those numbers up on a day where the offense seemed to struggle a bit, and with way too many penalties. What a clutch throw and catch late in the 4th quarter from Lamar to Hollywood to seal the deal. That was pretty, and a gutsy play call.

Nice 3 day stretch coming up, despite still being dry. As for the generally warm pattern, this too shall pass. Hopefully the last week of the month will feel like legit fall, and bring some rain with it. 12z run of the GEFS has backed off quite a bit on the deep eastern trough/legit chilly look though. Surprise lol.

The soil feels hot. Not sure it can cool properly given how wet, er, dry it is. Snow will likely have a difficult time sticking this winter. If it actually snows, that is.

Look at the advertised lack of snow for the far west lol. California in trouble.

I don't think I have ever seen this many leaves down in mid September. Still no rain in sight. This fall is gonna blow for color.

Chuck, it's mid September dude. No one is expecting a winter blizzard pattern. But thanks for the notification!

lol Same old Terps. Horrible loss. At least they were ranked for one week!

Yep, its dry here. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

This is pretty much always the case for me these days. Prefer the high gravity stuff. I like drinking one or two and done.

I like the low clouds and cool breeze this morning. No rain yesterday, and other than a random shower the next couple days, looks bone dry for another week. Summer hangs on as we approach 90 again by Monday.

That's not how it works. Last year the Nino developed way late, it was pretty diffuse, and the MJO was on steroids. There were other factors- the QBO was headed in the wrong direction, the EPO, the PDO phase/strength, etc. There are always multiple factors that combine to influence the ultimate outcome (of winter). In our region, we generally always want a Nino over a Nina. Increases the chances for -EPO/+PNA, i.e. ridging in favorable locations, encourages a more active southern stream, among other things. Exception might be a strong Nino vs. say a weak Nina, in some cases.

There has been persistence there. Guidance seems to be pointing towards a warm neutral/weak Nino for fall into winter at this point. Looks like a decent bet we avoid a Nina this winter.

It has been pretty persistent with the idea that we see a fall-like air mass to close out the month. That advertised h5 look on the 6z GEFS run towards the end- I would rather save for a few months down the road.

High yesterday was 88 here. No rain ofc. Forecast high today is 91. 60% chance of showers/storms tonight. lol sure.

Ain't nothing happening here except a sprinkler running. New grass coming in nicely despite only 0.40" of rain over the last 2 weeks. Hope my well pump doesn't die lol.

Yeah I always take these 'advertised features' on the LR models for what it is- pretty much a flip of the coin. The solar cycle/geomagnetic activity, QBO trends, and yes I suppose the SAI are all individual indices to monitor during fall for early indications of the winter AO state.

Meteorological impossibility? If it is possible, that look in January might have just resulted in a blizzard for Jacksonville.

We had our stretch of nice weather, with cool mornings and pleasant afternoons, albeit dry ofc. Back to abnormally warm/hot (and dry!) for a while.