CAPE

Harbaugh has truly lost his mind in this game. The Ravens probably wont win anyway, but going for 2 twiice for no reason, when its not called for, it just stupid. I hope they end up losing by one point.

Jackson is a bit off today, and Harbaugh is in dumb coaching mode.

-AO is at the top of the list for increased chances of colder and above average snow for this region.

Agreed. I don't really mind temps in the 80s for a few days here and there. So far its been short lived, then a nice cooldown, then repeat. I would just like some rain and this pattern is not conducive for more than low chance passing showers with most of the energy with cold fronts staying north. It is good to see the propensity for heights to build up top on the guidance. Pretty stout looking -NAO being advertised. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come.

Maybe, but the initial piece of NS energy dropping down, then a following piece, are going to flatten the current ridge after tomorrow. Should be pretty pleasant for the midweek period. As we approach Friday another eastern ridge will begin to pop as the NS motherload drops down out west and forms a deep trough. Next weekend might be warmer than this weekend. That ridge could stick around for 6-7 days, although with a strong NA ridge and NS energy moving underneath it, there is a chance it could flatten/break down the east coast ridge sooner. Looking at the overall long wave pattern, and rolling that forward, it likely favors more eastern ridging beyond that though. Torchtober! Hopefully the pattern retrogrades enough to place the mean ridge to our west after the first few days of October.

My point/click. I mean, this isn't hideous. It could be worse if not for the h5 heights building over Greenland and the deep vortex sitting underneath. Impressive NA block on the means. Without it, there would likely be a full 7 days of temps near/above 90. Too bad there is little chance of rain. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Monday Night A chance of showers, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 79. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 80. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Friday Sunny, with a high near 81. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Anyone looking for something to do tomorrow, the big car show in Ridgely, MD is happening. It's a quaint eastern shore town, but it is bigtime. I go almost every year. Richard Petty will be there- he has come every year I think. Also The dude from the "My Classic Car" series will be there filming for an upcoming episode. http://www.ridgelycarshow.com/ @losetoa6 should show up and bring his GN.

Yeah and even now, if that block is real, the vortex underneath might build westward and give our ridge party an early end.

What a great look in the NA. Too bad the PAC completely blows. Winter preview maybe- we get our -NAO but..

This is similar to my first hot rod. Back in my Carroll County days lol. 1964 Chevy II 2 door Sport Coupe, although this is a sedan. I built a cammed up 327, modded 350 turbo, with 373:1 gears, That car weighed like 2500 pounds. Was fun to drive. ETA- Mine looked more like this..Sport Coupe Hardtop.

You bringing your ride to Ridgely show on Sunday? Great weather to show off a modded Grand National. Not sure why its so early this year, but I will show up in the morning. Gotta get back to watch the Ravens lose to the Chiefs

Whats the differential gear ratio?

What mods do you have to get 600 HP? Aftermarket turbo, big cam...?

Really? I thought stock single turbos with no mods were like 250 HP. That's maybe a high 13 second machine.

Oh damn its early this year. Its this Sunday lol. It is normally always in mid October. http://www.ridgelycarshow.com/

You still need to come to this car show. It really is seriously awesome. It takes over the whole town. People are totally into it.

That is one wicked launch. You sure there isn't a supercharged 455 in that thing? Amazing what you can do with twin turbos on a v-6. Nitrous oxide too? Bring your ride to the Ridgely car show in a few weeks. Its huge now, seriously. Great time. I will meet ya there.

In the long range the advertised h5 look on the GEFS reminds me of what we saw a lot last winter lol. Looks good up top, lots of red in the NA, low heights off of the Canadian Maritimes, but then there is a huge ridge in the EPac/GOA with downstream trough planted in the W US. Leaves our region with at least weak ridging. I mentioned this in the disco thread last night- if that NA look is real, the developing trough to our NE may end up influencing our region more than the models are currently depicting by the end of the month. Still over a week out, and lots can change as we know.

45 here currently. House feels a bit cold this morning.

Looks like we heat up well into the 80s Sat through Mon, then a cold front moves through. Despite the heat, dews should be in the upper 50s to around 60. That front offers probably our "best" shot at some rain over the next week. After that temps drop back to 80 or so for highs and upper 50s at night, before we heat up again by next Friday. Beyond that we may torch for a few days, but with ridging building in the NA around Greenland, there is an an upper low showing up south of that (50/50ish) on the means, so it may deliver a back door front as we see more of a NE trough develop and the upper ridging retro a bit more westward late next weekend into the following week, before weakening. Not at all sold on the idea of a persistent heat ridge/ torch for the rest of the month into early October. I put this here because no one really seems to read the Mid/LR thread lol.

I never go in expecting the winters of a few years ago. We fail way more than we score. That's just reality. Plus even if we do get good set ups with cold air in place, we still need luck. Last December was a good example. I am prepared to chase.

Now is the time to be optimistic. I have been focusing more on what appear to be 'good signals' at this juncture. All our hopes and dreams will surely be crushed, probably incrementally, in due time.

Probably the worst time to plant grass. It can barely get established and then the longer days and brutal sun come along and burn it up.

Normally I wouldn't care so much, although the trees are dropping lots of leaves here already so not sure the color is going to be that great. I am trying to get a new lawn established out back, and its a real battle to keep the soil moist with no rain. Been watering for multiple hours a day for 3 weeks now.

I guess it depends on what your definition of roasting is lol. Sat-Mon look quite warm- mid to upper 80s. Looks to drop back to more normal temps for mid next week, then we will see what happens the following weekend. It will likely get quite warm again with a trough digging out west, but it looks progressive. Personally I don't mind (I actually expect) days in the low 80s in this area in mid to late September, as long as we don't have ridiculous humidity levels like last fall, and there are no signs of that. My concern is there is literally no chance of significant rain for yet another week, and its already abnormally dry here.