CAPE

It's never bad to have the Euro on board at this range. Other models have hinted, but most are keeping the precip confined to the coast currently.

Snyder. What a tool. So why not fire him last week? Must have been losing to the best team in football that triggered him. What, was the spread in that game? 20?

The forcing with the front continues to look weaker as it moves east. Precip breaks up and becomes scattered on the guidance. I have very little confidence in that shortwave/coastal low congealing just right to produce significant rain outside of the immediate coast, and probably mostly NE of our area. The next few days wont even put a ding dent in the drought here, and I would be surprised if my yard gets more than a tenth. Probably some drizzle lol.

Tomorrow will probably be the usual fail for much of the region. Your area may do ok, but places further east will be relying on that shortwave and coastal low track for some decent rain, and that is a precarious setup with high bust potential. Plus drought begets drought, and all that crap lol.

Looks like Tony Jefferson is gone for the season with an ACL. I wish him the best, but quite frankly, he is mediocre. Next man up.

Ravens gutted out a win, but not pretty at all. Plenty of issues to address going forward on both sides of the ball.

It lasted a day.

Not the Raven D we have become accustomed to. Inconsistent pass rush and the secondary is porous. eta- they don't tackle very well either, which has been a staple of the defense forever. All that being said, they "should" be able to handle the Steelers.

Raven's D is broken. I don't think they have the parts to fix it.

18z GFS is a better version of 12z. Thorough soaking for the region from Tuesday to Thursday.

18z 12km NAM looks better for Mon into Tuesday for eastern areas- mostly just to my SE, but better overall than the 12z run. Still looks good for west of I-95.

Perfect early Oct day. 61 at 4pm.

Pretty strong and well placed little shortwave on the 12z run. Was there at 0z, but weaker and less defined, and nothing happening at the surface. Lets see how that evolves in future runs.

Yeah with a very strong shortwave around midweek, which is new. When I made that post the run was only out to hour 78, and there is virtually nothing with the actual front east of I-95, which is quite a change from a couple runs ago.. Now I can monitor the "next threat' and watch it dwindle away to nothing

Early week rain chances continue to look pretty pathetic for I-95 and points east on the 12z NAM and GFS.

I really should have posted it there. My bad.

I know. What was I thinking?

I have no patience for that lol. I did get one by that method one time just being in the right place/right time- chopped that sucker in half with a shovel. The spring-loaded traps work best in my experience, but persistence is required, and even if you get one, there are plenty more.

So I reseeded my back yard 6 weeks ago, after the last significant rain, and it hasn't rained since(well, a half inch in that span). I have been nursing it along with constant watering, and it's up and looking great, although probably a bit shallow rooted given the drought. And now the moles. I would be fine with them doing the normal tunneling and creating ridges- easy enough to spot and set traps- but because it is so dry a few inches down(I am guessing) they come topside and go around the whole yard scratching/slightly digging down(trying to 'sniff' out earthworms) and ripping out the new grass in the process. Between all the trees, long dry periods in mid summer, and moles, just can't effing win with grass here lol.

Yeah 6z GFS gets a little precip over eastern areas verbatim. The most likely scenario is that next front will simply shunt the low out, but definitely some uncertainty and some other possibilities looking at the means. It will mostly come down to timing.

This is a little interesting. The offshore low on the 0z Euro looks to back closer to the coast under the ridge to the north. Has an inverted trough look. Might be worth watching in future runs.

I had a dream that I woke up to a soaking rain. I woke up to the usual desert, but at least it feels a bit like a high desert. 45. That ties the coldest low so far this fall.

Recent runs of the CFS seem to be coming around to the CanSIPS idea of a favorable EPAC and building +h5 heights up top, with lower heights in the east. November is just a few weeks away.. Maybe an early season high elevation snowfall not out of the question.

Let's get this party started.

I'll be sure not to look.