CAPE

Minot area getting crushed this morning with heavy snow under the deform band.

WRT the longer range models, we all know the drill in recent winters. Never expect an advertised -NAO to materialize until it does in real time. My hunch is we see much of the same since the last legit, persistent NA blocking period in winter- brief/bootleg ridging in the NAO domain. Not worth worrying over it since it is difficult to predict at range. The more important index to track imo is the AO, as a weakened PV is clearly a key factor for persistent cold air delivery into the midlatitudes, and correlates strongly with above average snowfall for this region. A -AO also increases chances for development of NA blocking.

I would think given the super duper impressive start to the Eurasian snow cover advance, the widespread anomalous warmth the Ukie is advertising must be pretty close to a meteorological impossibility. I can't imagine why Cohen would have even bothered to make that tweet.

Looks legit. Euro has close to 2 feet for there(using Kuchera), and close to 30" NW of there just across the border.

12z Euro is juiced up too mid week, but a bit too far S and E. Verbatim my yard would do decently, but the 1-2" rains are eastern VA to southern DE. That is a significant bump NW from the previous run though.

I am fine with multiple days in the 60s and 70s in late October. No more 80s though. And a little rain would be damn nice before the next ridge builds in.

Looks like Sunday night into Monday will present the next chance for rain, mostly for eastern areas. I will be watching intently to see how this one dwindles away to nothing.

0.02" here! Had just about 0.5" for Sept. It be dry.

Yeah I am not crazy about that look in general, minus the NA block. Long wave pattern is a bit out of phase for what we want. Not awful, but with the EPAC ridging displaced that far west, there would be a tendency for a trough out west and a SE ridge. We would really need the -NAO to be west based and strong.

Yeah I found it thanks. I had to click through all the parameters to find the ones (relatively few) that provide the individual member output. Fewer states available in the regions, and ens members are only available for a few of the parameters, less than the old Premium package provided. Not a fan overall.

Yeah after going through and selecting all the parameters, I finally noticed it. Strange they have so few states available. As I said in the other thread, I will stick with it through the end of the month. If it continues to annoy me/no enhancements are made, I may dump it for Stormvista. Even the old interface- which was clunky but everything was there- was problematic last winter with loading panels etc.

Yeah that's what I have done. Under parameter selection, only thing available is the mean. Nothing there that allows me to see individual members. Weird. This better be a work in progress. Not been impressed with WB, although I have stuck with it. This "new look" is unacceptable to me. I will give it one month max, lol.

Maybe it was a bad time to do this after drinking a DFH 90 min IPA, a couple glasses of wine, and a bourbon on the rocks, but where in the hell are the individual members? All I see under "MAPS" > "Global Ensembles" are the means.

Yeah they better do something. Only WB could "improve" the interface and make it worse than the clunky mess it was before. At least I could find everything and all the functionality was there before. This is just shiit. I will give it a month. If it doesn't improve, I will cancel and I guess I will give Stormvista a go.

LOL It pretty much died. Ok I will go with .02" then Do you have WB Premium? I just reactivated and I actually think I hate it lol. Where are the individual ens members?

So I re-activated my weatherbell premium account. Gotta say, I kinda hate the new look lol. Am I missing something? Where are the individual ens members for the EPS /GEFS? All I see is the mean.

81 in Denver currently. Low of 26 tonight with snow. Up to 3" of snow tomorrow with a high of 32. Mid to upper 60s over the weekend. Typical fall weather there.

Definitely feels like fall. 57 with a stiff NE breeze. Cloudy. A little rain would be nice!

Light sprinkle here in Easton. Looking at radar it looks like it will rain enough in my yard to maybe dampen the ground. Sad that I cannot be there to experience it.

I have that Blind Melon song stuck in my head.

LOL the HRRR. Yes ofc I believe my yard is going to see three quarters of an inch by noon tomorrow. The Euro is trying to "gracefully" back out of its heavy rain (fail) forecast for this area. There likely won't be any significant rain in NE MD either. That will be gone by 0z.

What I need is a good cat, but I don't want one lol.

It's the moles. Growing new grass.. constantly watering (because it won't rain) so they come towards the only wet ground for miles and miles to hunt for worms. What a quandary.

Nada. Still holding out hope for some drizzle this morning though.

I would kill for that right now. 67 here and desert dry.