CAPE

Absolute pig of a block on the 6z GFS for late month.Would likely be some snow showers in the mountains with that look but any coastal development would probably be well offshore.

Pretty darn nice. 12z Euro ens looks even more impressive than the 0z panel I posted above, and very similar to the GEFS. Hate to keep repeating it, but pretty uncanny how similar the current LR ens runs look to the CanSIPS h5 pattern for Nov, which it has been consistently depicting since August, and continues it through March. Lets hope this is an early indication of how the pattern will roll going forward.

I am looking for positive signs in these climate/seasonals, and right now the CanSIPS is about the only one offering a very favorable h5 pattern for the MA region. For 3 straight runs it has developed the HL blocking during the October into November period, and it only gets better moving forward. So I will take it as a positive sign at this juncture that the global means are now advertising the very look it has been consistently depicting, and in the same time frame. Ofc it very well could mean nothing lol. Pretty close match between the 0z EPS at the end of its run and what the CanSIPS has been advertising for that general period..

The latest runs of the GEFS, EPS. and even the GEPS have a HL blocky look developing as we approach the month of November, very similar to what the CanSIPS has been advertising for that period(and persisting through winter) going back to it's August run. Interesting. Maybe it is on to something. Given what the other climate/seasonal models are depicting currently, I like seeing the major global ensemble means all trending towards the CIPS idea heading into late fall.

Maybe I will be able to return the desert shtick to @EastCoast NPZ

Fwiw, recent runs of the CFS have a solid +AO/+NAO look through at least January. No hints of HL blocking on our side of the globe. Luckily the Pacific looks decent, and ofc in another day or 2 the model may offer up something different lol. CanSIPS has been steadfast with the HL blocky look. In another couple weeks we can see if that holds as we move closer to the start of winter.

Forecast here is for 0.75 to 1" for Wed. I would be totally happy with that outcome.

Mount Holly's thoughts on the model discrepancies- The biggest uncertainty (as usual) is with QPF, with the GFS much drier than the ECMWF/NAM (roughly middle of the road), and the CMC much wetter. This is clearly tied to how close the newly developing low tracks to the coast, with the CMC nearest the CWA and the GFS/NAM much farther offshore. The ECMWF is well between the two extremes and agrees with ensemble means as well. Given these factors, used a blend of model QPF for the Wednesday/Wednesday night forecast as well, but with slightly more weight to the ECMWF and NAM. The result is widespread 1-2 inch totals (highest amounts north and east). Notably, the GFS features totals about 50-75 percent of these values, with the CMC in the range of 2-4+ inches. (In other words, large uncertainty remains.)

Yeah it looks to be a quick hitter for our region. Lets hope it packs a punch.

12z Euro looks similar. 1.3" for BWI and about 0.9" for DC.

After the surprising 0.4" that fell here yesterday, an inch would be great to really get some moisture back in the soil. Depending on the exact track of the southern low and timing of the phase, we could see higher amounts. Hopefully the area can maximize qpf with this event, because looking at the means, looks like we go back to a big EC ridge with warm/dry for the weekend and much of next week.

Dense fog the whole way into work this morning here after the rain overnight. Have not seen fog like that in a long time.

Yeah the Euro has an area of heavy snow in the Catskills on the backside of that bombing low. Not out of the question if it plays out like that. Looks like our region has the potential of an inch or so of rain, but as the low deepens, places from NJ up to central NE could see some 2-4" rains.

Well I hit 0.25". Probably not much more to come, but more than was forecast as recently as this morning. Biggest single rain event here in over a month. eta- total ended up at 0.4". Indeed, an over performer.

Good stuff headed south of me towards Denton. Was just outside and heard some rumbles of thunder down that way. eta- it wasn't my subwoofer/surround sound

Yeah hopefully I can get in on some of that action. I would love to end up with a quarter inch out of this.

0.12" of rain so far today. An over performer!!

Yes the parched soil has been dampened! 0.12" lol. At least I know it's actually possible for rain to fall again. We shall see about Wednesday. Looks good based on the 12z guidance, but the 0z runs looked pretty meh. Have to watch the "trends".

Just cleared up here after that sprinkle. Sun is out, temp dropped a degree, and a nice breeze from the NW. I guess the "cooler" air was lagging behind the actual front.

Looks like you are in a good spot for tonight and also midweek. Based on current guidance, it looks like your area should see 1 inch+ between now and Thursday.

Big temp gradient in the region. Temps rose overnight here. 54 and cloudy now. I was outside digging holes for some plants and was sweating lol. Maybe this is a sign my desert oasis is getting some rain tonight. eta- actually getting a light shower now.

Looks like the immediate coast of MD and DE may get a quick shot of decent rain tonight. Maybe I can score a shower? So here are Mount Holly's thoughts on the next potential event: Wednesday...Likely the most eventful day of the long term with one low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes and srn Canada while a second low forms off to the south and races off the Delmarva/NJ coasts and up into the New England waters. This second low is shown as eventually `bombing` by the EC/CMC models and just short of the criteria by the GFS. Either way, rains and gusty winds will develop Wed and last into the evening period before decreasing from W to E. Depending on synoptic/mesoscale factors a 1 to 2 inch rain may fall with the system. This has the "betwixt and between" look written all over it for a significant part of this region- and likely the areas that most need the rain. The NS energy and the and the low forming on the old front will congeal and perhaps result in a strong coastal low, but probably too far east/NE for most of us. This can be seen pretty clearly on the latest runs of the Euro and GFS. Precip maps are LOL, but not surprising. It bears watching, but given the dry run we are on, my expectations are very low.

Great pitching usually dominates in the postseason. Nats got it going on.

44 this morning. Looks like a darn near perfect early fall day on tap.

0z Euro Ens mean gets a half inch+ to the I-95 corridor for the midweek "threat". Good trends for now. Lets see if this slowly crumbles as we get closer, like all the rest lol.