CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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18z NAM is acceptable for the tropical turned extratropical coastal low for Sunday imby.
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Freaking windy here. Quite a few small branches down. All this wind is drying out the newly moistened soil lol. I just dug a hole to plant a small evergreen, and despite 2.5" of rain since Sunday, the soil is literally bone dry a couple inches below the surface. Need. More. Rain.
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I said the same thing in a post early this morning. Also, this is like a trial run- we need to see if these great advertised h5 looks verify in real time. That rarely ever happened last winter. So here is a 12z EURO Ens mean h5 height anomaly panel for late month. Another beauty.
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That dude is at least half full of shiit. Some might even say his SAI theory is akin to selling snake oil. Always an excuse when it fails, and then he manages to take credit when it turns out cold and snowy despite the SAI/AO correlation not working out.
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Other than monitoring ENSO, the thing to watch this time of year is the AO. Always a good thing to see the emerging cold season PV get perturbed early and often.
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lol I'm good now. All in the rear view mirror. I wouldn't have really cared much, but the dry spell kicked into high gear right after I reseeded. The endless watering has finally ended.
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Yeah I noticed that. Looking at the wider view it extends across to the eastern shore as well.
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Check it for dirt/tree gunk and crusty bugs, or spiders looking for places to overwinter. That is usually the issue when mine doesn't work. Had a spider and all its meal remnants lodged underneath and it couldn't tip back in the summer.
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The guidance has come into better agreement on the Sunday coastal. Looks like a nice hit for SE VA, but probably just a glancing blow for SE portions of our region. Next legit chance of rain comes with the front next Tuesday.
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0z GEFS has a perfectly placed west-based block centered over the Davis Strait at the end of the month. 0z EPS is very similar, but with the highest heights a bit further east, and an even more impressive look in the EPAC. Pretty strong signal for early season cold. This is like practice- let's see if these very favorable advertised h5 looks actually verify - and hopefully we see these same looks on the LR ens guidance a month or so from now.
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1.95" here. Still raining moderately. A real soaker. eta- 2.07" today and 2.47" since Sunday. A good week.
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Euro looks similar to the CMC for Sun and into early next week.
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Its happening!! because the mighty CanSIPS has been leading the way on this look beginning late fall for months, and now that the LR global ens are in range, they are all over it. Latest runs of the CFS, otoh, says huh? what blocking?
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I use the spring loaded spikers. No digging, just flatten the ridge, push it in, and load it. It has been so dry though that the moles stay further down, and then would come topside and scratch around and dig down all over the place. More difficult to get with the traps when they behave that way, and not good for new grass trying to establish roots.
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After 8 weeks of daily watering I have finally retired the sprinkler for the year. That got to be a tedious daily chore. Now the moles can really go to town.
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CMC has it and it gets rain through most of the region. It seems to stall under the big developing ridge. Not super heavy but long duration. Then it gets kicked out with the next low moving into the GL, and more rain with the associated front from that. It likely wont play out that way, but certainly looks like a potentially active period early next week.
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Plenty of potential during that period for an early season "winter like" event. Not saying frozen for the lowlands, but with the type of pattern being advertised, a snow event for the mountains of W MD and WV is a possibility.
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Interesting h5 look at hour 222 on the 12z GFS.
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@nw baltimore wx I use the BB Original, and it does well in sun and shade, as long as the shaded areas get at least a few hours of filtered sun. If it is a legit shady area, then the dense shade variety is the one to use.
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Jonathan Greene- The Black Beauty product line has a tall fescue mixture for shade. https://www.jonathangreen.com/categories/grass-seed-products.html
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Ok enough of this rain. Can we get a few sunny, dry days already?
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Good post. 100% agree.
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HREF looks solid for today. Highest amounts are 1- 1.25" south to north along and either side of the bay, with somewhat lesser amounts as you head west and right along the MA coast. Looks like a half to an inch in general for the entire region.
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Ofc it completely evaporated on the 6z run lol. Still, with the advertised h5 looks across all guidance, it is certainly possible the highlands could see some legit snow around the end of the month.
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Your area may be flirting with a little snow by the end of the month if the means are close to correct. With h5 looks like that, there might be a chance or 2.
