CAPE
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Not a bad way to roll. Seems pretty reasonable the beginning of Dec could suck.
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@Bob ChiII EPS weeklies H5 anomalies a week beyond the end of the 0z EPS. Fwiw, 2m temps look average. I would say the look is pretty crappy overall, but ofc it's the weeklies. Always overly smoothed and ambiguous.
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Yeah its hard to make a call for a cold December around here. It happens every so often. Still can get a frozen event even if overall the month is 'warm' as long as the pattern isn't hostile, and with climo becoming more favorable moving forward.
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Stay out of the tangled webb they weave.
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GEFS currently has the MJO forcing moving briefly into phase 2, then into the COD by early Dec. Who knows what happens beyond that. Looks like it may do a loop in the COD, but it could reemerge in a favorable phase or stay neutral. If early Dec is going to be on the mild side, I am not sure the MJO state will be a primary reason. As for the Nino correlation, well we don't really have Nino conditions currently. Do we typically have warmish Decembers when ENSO is warm-neutral?
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This is what I am doing for the most part, but given this is the December thread and it is in sight on the LR now, worth a peak- especially given what the seasonal models are advertising.
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I will gladly take this look to start the month of Dec. GEFS looks very similar.
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There is that baseball team in Baltimore...they call em the Os.
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Ok Eagles. WTF? You can't stumble, bumble, and fumble and beat the Pats. Get it together.
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From what I have seen(and I don't go out of my way to read any of these dudes on twitter) he never wastes any time when it comes to sounding the bells for a "bad" pattern.
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Ravens are bullies since soundly beating the cheaters.
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Nothing alarming about the 12z EPS, unless you are looking for unseasonably warm weather.
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I think the Ravens might actually be pretty good.
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He seems to be a warminsta alarmist. He is quick to tweet and declare gloom and doom when a model run shows a SE ridge, even if it looks transient.
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Given what the seasonal guidance has been depicting, the longer we see good looks in the AO/NAO domain on the LR guidance, the better. As most of us know, having a predominant a -AO is number one on the list for cold and snow chances in the DC area.
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Why try a fake field goal on 4th and 4. You have LAMAR JACKSON. Jeez.
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Yeah. No idea what all the fuss is about. Who knows if it's correct, but what has caught my eye on recent GEFS runs is the good look up top rolling into December.
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This. Some of these twitter dweebs make weenies weenie out even more than usual. Webb lol.
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He is annoying. It's one damn run lol. And actually I am not hating it.
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Am I missing something? Are we talking today's 12z GEFS? I haven't seen it. 6z run looked good to me.
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Yeah it changed quite a bit from 12z yesterday to 0z, then 6z went all in on a west based block. The big EPO ridge idea is more modest now too. Gotta like that look in the AO/NAO space towards the end though.
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I concur. But other than the last batch of leaves, I may be done my outdoor projects by then. Been outside most of the weekend in this raw cold and wind.
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He totally does. I am sure he is a smart dude, but 'hidden' in many of his technical posts you can tell he is a bit of a frustrated snow weenie from the south.
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The 7-10 day thing is just my general monitoring window this winter. As I have said probably too many times now, not a fan of the weeklies etc. If I discuss them it's either a subtle troll post, or something like the other night when I posted a couple panels because Bob requested them.
