CAPE

Yeah the NAM was being discounted by many forecasters a day ago, but it may end up being correct. Most guidance has trended towards its closer track/wetter solution.

The guidance for several runs now has had some rain well into WV.

Updated forecast for my yard is for 1 - 1.5 inches. We shall see.

Case in point- pretty darn impressive NA look here, but surface temps are mid 60s or even higher. This looks familiar lol. Honestly not worth worrying about at this juncture. Something to keep an eye on.

WPC pretty bullish.

The look the Euro is now advertising is much like what we were' fighting' last winter although the MJO/ENSO forcing is not the same now. No one can know how this evolves going forward, so like always, we keep an eye on it and hope it doesn't become another tease-fest in the LR, only to see the advertised pattern deteriorate in later runs as we get closer to reality lol. If a monster blocking ridge in the NE Pac should become a fixture, the positive impacts from any NA blocking that develops would tend to be mitigated.

Probably not your toilet

Love the look and feel of mornings like this. Verifies that our never ending summer is over, and winter is on the way. Quite a bit of frost on the fields.

Looking through all the latest guidance, seems a pretty good bet at least the southern two-thirds of the region weill see some decent rain tomorrow. My forecast is for a half inch, and looks like an inch or more down towards the beaches.

37 here this morning. Probably a degree or 2 lower out in the open areas, so there might be some scattered frost.

Last few runs of the Euro ens mean shows a bit of a trend towards more east coast ridging at the end of October, as the EPAC ridge is further west and mean trough is in the western/central US. Still eventually gets a trough in the east, but not until the end (of the 0z run), which is early Nov, and it's not a deep trough. GEFS looks similar, but to a lesser degree, and still gets some pretty chilly air here by the very end of the month.. These LR "trends" are what I am keeping an eye on in preseason, because this was the tendency last winter on the guidance- advertise a great h5 look(esp NA block) in the day 10-15 period, but as we get closer to that timeframe, the depicted pattern becomes less favorable/gets pushed back in time. Often it never verified in real time. I guess going into this winter, I am in 'believe it when I see it mode'. And also, screw the Euro weeklies lol. Have not looked at those once since reactivating WB.

0z Euro run is much wetter for the I-95 corridor and points east than 12z. 0.5" for DC, 0.6" for Dover. Over an inch for SBY. Still pretty dry NW of Baltimore. Only about a tenth for Westminster.

Yeah it sure is. Almost NAM like. Gets my yard on the half inch line.

From Mount Holly- Our region should be on the northwestern edge of the clouds and the precipitation associated with the system from late Saturday night into Sunday. We will continue to mention a chance of rain for northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. While the NAM has a track closer to the shore, the skill of the NAM is limited at that range, so have gone with a non-NAM blend through this period. Consequently, do not expect any significant wind concerns for our land zones with Nestor. lol poor NAM gets no respect . Usually deservedly so.

Yes our area does often "overperform" in that area. 36-37 is probably the lowest we go tonight, so maybe some scattered areas of slushy frost lol.

This.

Interesting. At the same time they were brewing the original Kujo, they had a cold press coffee porter, one of their limited offering "brewhouse rarities". It was excellent. The current Kujo coffee Porter is decent IMO, but nothing like that cold press coffee porter. And ofc, they never came up with another true imperial stout to replace the original Kujo. Kind of an eff up to me.

If I were there, I would ask why they stopped making the original Kujo, a great imperial stout, and then brought it back as a porter.

It's the Porter though, right? I can get that here. I would kill for the Kujo Imperial Stout lol. That is defunct though I think. Either way, Kent Island sounds good. I will be there next Thursday for a blood drive. They always tell you to drink plenty of fluids after you donate. Less blood, less alcohol required.

I need to get there. My first happy hour beer today was their coffee porter- Kujo- which originally was an imperial stout. I loved that beer. Was kinda pissed when they stopped making it. The porter is pretty good, but not even close to the Kujo stout.

18z NAM looks as juicy as this NE Hazy IPA I am polishing off.

12z Euro looks pretty dry from about DC points N and NE, similar to the GFS. Looks like some influence from high pressure to the north- subsidence/somewhat drier air. Storm only gains so much latitude then hits a wall and slides off the coast.

Yeah I would sign up for that. Nice area of moderate rain from around DC to Dover.

12z GFS generally has a quarter inch or less for most areas. The greater than half inch rains are in the tidewater and lower eastern shore.

Forecast here for Sunday is rain likely now. Probably not a lot, but another tick north and might get into the edge of the heavier stuff.