CAPE

Some big plays today. Nice debut by Peters with the pick-6.

They heard me.

Ravens D...calling the Ravens D. you have a 10 point lead. Do your effing job.

Not that I can recall. Had plenty of beers from Bells, but not that one. Thus my jealousy lol.

2-3 days ago? Look at some of the panels posted in this thread a page or so back. EPS was never as bullish as the GEFS, but it had a cold look several runs ago.

Jealous.

If the 12z EPS is correct, the last week of October will feature EC/WA ridge with high temps of 60 to 70. The previously advertised cold snap has disintegrated.

Radar is out, but light rain falling here. Probably close to done. 1.10" for the event so far, and 3.6" for the month. Drought significantly dented.

LOL surprise. Dover radar is down again for the umteenth time. I think they need to replace the whole effing thing. KDOX is down due to a pedestal issue. Return to service is unknown at this time.

"Bonus snow" a couple months from now.

Your area should end up with close to 1.5".

I just made a post, and the thread showed that I made the most recent post, but its not showing up. Something is effed up.

Rain has been in the forecast here for a while, but a few days ago it looked like my area would be on the NW fringe with a quarter inch or less. Lets hope we see similar outcomes over the coming months with low pressure moving up from the south and HP to the north.

0.95" so far. Looks like the back edge is making steady eastward progress now, so no way I see the 2" amounts the NAM forecast lol. One inch+ is way more than I expected from this event a couple days ago.

Gotta do what ya gotta do. I do all kinds of odd stuff here lol. I have no neighbors tho which is nice. One thing about the BB, the stuff is really green when it matures, and ofc does well in the shade.

@frd Just took this pic of the new grass. Not bad considering I had to keep it going for 7 weeks in a drought. I should have taken a before photo 8 weeks ago. It was sad- burnt grass/thatch, dirt, and clover lol.

Moles will be back to their normal behaviour- tunneling closer the surface and making ridges in the new lawn lol. At least when they stay subsurface they are easier to trap and I can push the grass back down. How is your new grass coming along?

Over a half inch here now. Rain coming down heavier in the last 30 mins.

12z NAM has 2"+ for our area.

0.30" here so far.

Yeah I mentioned this yesterday. This storm is moving into a wall of HP, so it will be a struggle the further north it gets. GFS has been pretty consistent with depicting this. Steady moderate rain here, and I doubt I will see any real heavy rain. Hopefully several hours of light to moderate, which is exactly what is needed to dent the drought and get moisture deeper into the soil. eta- looks like the radar is filling in nicely over your area.

Yeah I didn't want to get too off topic for this thread. Just a mention. And speculating what the pattern may look like for winter belongs in the other thread. As for the immediate mid/long range, it will be interesting to see how the currently advertised pattern evolves on the models moving towards November. Some fairly significant differences between the GEFS and the EPS. I was just commenting in some previous posts that the EPS pattern depiction looks pretty familiar, but should it verify, it probably has little relevance wrt the actual pattern that sets up for early winter- ofc if you look at tomorrow's edition of the weeklies... lol.

Rain. Very wet rain.

I doubt anyone is counting on a stable west based -NAO for winter at this point lol. Lets just hope the Pacific isn't crap, and there are enough differences heading into winter this year to think it might not be. Ofc the tendency for a hostile Pac (wrt favorable EC cold/snow patterns) may simply be another component of the "new normal".

Yeah it's early and too soon to get a good idea of the state/strength/location of the important features, and how exactly the pattern will set up for early winter. I was just commenting on a possible outcome, and one we experienced often last winter. Euro could be just exhibing its bias of dropping too much energy in the SW, if that is even an issue with its model physics anymore. Either way there is a bit of a battle in the LR. GEFS briefly does the same thing, but not to the same extent and it gets to a good looking pattern with a west-based block and eastern trough by the end of October.