CAPE

NBM is still suggestive of low end warning criteria. NWS likes to use that product when making forecasts.

We need a Modoki Nino next winter in a big way.

Just over 12" here for 18-19. That one was frustrating lol. The one storm that was supposed to jack here was a big fail. DC area jacked instead.

It was 14-15 for me(or 13-14- maybe both lol). I was within an inch in 2022 and the same currently for this winter(19.6). Because the Jan 2016 blizzard was a half storm here(only 15") didn't even get close that winter.

I'm hoping for an inch or 2. Current forecast here is exactly that btw. That would get me solidly over 20". Got very close in 2022, and fell a few inches short in both 2017 and 18, which were the next best winters in recent years. Last time over 20 was 2015.

Just need some cold and luck with wave timing. The epic pretty h5 patterns can easily fail because of bad luck. Seen it happen quite a bit in recent winters.

Well, yeah. They know its a trash model.

Its amazing that the NWSFO never mention the ICON, let alone factor it in to their forecasts. Makes you wonder. BTW there is a WSW up for OC. Heading down?

Might be a reasonable chance for something here.

WSW up for S DE and MD lower ES.

A mini capture at h5 leads to an inverted trough.

We back?

Some late interaction happening.

THIS.

I mean, its a damn TPV lobe sitting in the middle of a significantly cold airmass, stuck underneath a block. I honestly don't get that line of thinking. That's just me tho.

We got a very cold airmass with a TPV lobe in the middle of it stuck underneath a block, and it's not playing nicely with the southern stream energy as currently modeled.

Nice disco here from LWX- By the middle of the week, attention will turn to a potential winter storm approaching from the south and west. Recent trends have been for more separation between a southern stream disturbance (currently located off the Pacific Northwest Coast), and a northern stream disturbance (primarily composed of a shortwave currently moving from east to west along the northern periphery of an upper low currently centered over Manitoba and Saskatchewan). Greater spacing between these features would likely result in less interaction, and later phasing between these two disturbances, leading to a more southern storm track. This trend toward a more suppressed, southern track system started yesterday, continued with the 00z runs last night, and is even more prevalent within incoming 12z guidance. This trend toward a more southern track is leading to a trend down in snowfall totals across much of the area. While it still appears likely that most of the area will see at least some snowfall, a scenario where the northern half of the forecast area sees very little snowfall (nearly all in association with the northern stream system) is a distinct possibility now. That isn`t to say that the threat for a larger storm has gone away, it`s just that probabilities for that occurring have decreased greatly. At the moment, it appears as though southern Maryland currently stands the greatest chance for higher snowfall totals, as they`d be located closer to the southern storm track and eventual deepening coastal low. While the trend has been downward with snowfall totals, that doesn`t mean that there can`t be further shifts in either direction as we move closer to the event. The pattern across North America, as well as the North Pacific and North Atlantic is very complex at the moment, with numerous interactions between different disturbances yet to occur. This lends itself to some lingering uncertainty. Systems with lots of convection in the southern stream (as this one will) also commonly trend northward at short lead times. The upper level pattern to our northeast at the time of the system will likely be very blocked, so that potential for a northward shift back is somewhat limited, but still exists. So while the clear trend at the moment is very much toward a more southern track and lower snow totals, there is still time for things to change.

Fun storm. Snowed all day with temps in the mid teens.

Latest blend still looks good for many.

I think there could still be some adjustments. Maybe enough interaction-albeit late- such that the low slows down some, allowing better moisture transport further NW.

Guidance has consistently depicted southern stream energy inducing low pressure in the Northern Gulf and tracking NE off the NC coast. The differences have been wrt degree of interaction with NS energy and the potential to bring SLP closer to the coast with higher precip totals further NW. I also find it funny how universal the 'GFS caved' mantra was yesterday afternoon, and now somehow its the other way around lol.

6z EPS

Not here. This is the MA sub dude.

Latest Natty blend. Note there is zero indication of a miss to the SE. Not sure exactly why/how that has become a point of discussion.

A 'SE miss' isn't the same as places relatively further SE forecast to get somewhat higher amounts of snow, which is what the preponderance of current guidance is depicting. Ofc current guidance may not be completely correct about that and some adjustment NW can still occur.