CAPE

Mount Holly has KEY messages in their AFD lol. Number 3 below- KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong frontal passage is expected later Wednesday with the potential of a coastal storm for Thursday and Friday as a secondary low develops off the coast. Impacts are very uncertain at this time depending how close the low tracks to the coast. By the middle of the week, an amplified upper level weather pattern is expected to develop of the eastern third of the United States. A strengthening and deepening upper level trough will be located over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, stretching all the way down toward the Gulf Coast by Wednesday night. At the surface, it is fairly confident, that a primary area of low pressure will be tracking across Ontario and Quebec with cold front trailing back across the Appalachians. This at the very least will lead to some shower activity across the area on Wednesday. Temperatures look to be several degrees above average, where highs will likely top out in the upper 40s to low 50s. Beyond Wednesday though, the pattern becomes highly variable and the differences amongst forecast guidance is fairly significant with regards to timing and location of upper level and surface features. While the upper level pattern is expected to shift east with time for the latter part of the week...what exactly happens with progression of the pattern is yet to be seen. For example, the 10/00Z GFS is the most aggressive with the pattern aloft, with a cut- off upper low tracking tracking across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday with secondary surface low cyclogenesis ongoing right along the Mid- Atlantic coast. This scenario would likely bring widespread impacts of some sort to the area. Meanwhile, the 10/00Z ECMWF and CMC are both less amplified and aggressive with the trough, simply swinging the base of the trough off the coast with any secondary low development shunted well out into the western Atlantic. This scenario would likely equate to minimal impacts to the area. Ensemble guidance though, does support secondary coastal low development, so this system will need to be closely watched over the coming days to see how close this system may be to our coast. For now, have followed closely to NBM guidance which essentially carries a 20-30% chance of rain and/or snow across the entire region Wednesday night into Thursday night.

lol its not really my storm(and if it is it better do better than 1.5" in my yard) Several days ago I said I liked the advertised h5 look around the 20th for a winter storm a bit more than mid month. Ofc it looks somewhat different now. Both windows could snow on us.. Hopefully the other guidance gets as enthused as recent GFS runs.

Much better wave interaction than the last 2 runs. More like 18z yesterday.

I think there are plenty of people here who just want some snow.

Ensemble guidance isn't overly excited, at least not yet. Some recent runs have been hinting, but overall a weakish signal. Still about 10 days out.

That's the way it goes with model simulations- previous cycles were likely incorrect with the outcome and as we go forward we get closer to what that will actually be. And I am fine with a moderate snowfall or 2. All I really expected out of this period. This doesnt look like a 'big dog' pattern to me, but not impossible to get a bigger storm if all the elements interact in just the right way at the right time. Given the lack of blocking that sort of outcome likely increases the risk of rain.

6z compared to 18z-

Yeah but the big difference(on both 0z and 6z) is later towards the 18th. Ideally it would be more like the 18z run wrt the energy(vorticity ribbon) riding overtop the ridge phasing in early. The biggest improvement on the 6z run over 0z imo is it doesnt leave a ball of energy behind parked in the SW.

Still need to get that NS vorticity dropping in over the ridge to get involved earlier. 18z was close to the outcome I envisioned for the window around the 20th

6z a little closer to something for the 18th as it involves some of the energy in the SW instead of leaving it all behind like the 0z run

Yeah no phase but it looks like a 2-4/ 3-5" deal with the UL energy rolling through.

So far so good.

Both windows have their flaws, but that's almost always the case with snow chances at our latitude. We need some luck with timing and wave interactions most of the time. It's how we roll. Mid month is pretty close on most recent runs, and a pretty good bet these modeled outcomes are the result of some amount of error wrt wave spacing and timing- still 6 days out.

Transient 50-50 lows are often not helpful outside of perfect timing/luck. Its simply a low moving through that location. A 50-50 low that is useful is part of a -NAO rex block, in which case it is quasi-stationary.

Same. Just keeping an eye on it but don't really have anything to add other than what I already have.

This is from Jan 6-7th last year. Had snow otg for weeks, then a bit more snow and another big snow storm in Feb. Maybe a little later this year, but lets hope for similar outcomes.

Now hire him. Perfect coach for Lamar. Then get McDaniel as OC. That would be awesome. As for the D coordinator, my default would be Chuck Pagano, who is already on the payroll as a consultant, and has been the DC here previously before moving on and ultimately becoming a HC.

He is odd for sure, but kinda funny and an offensive guru. Love to have him as an OC if we end up hiring a defensive minded HC like Flores. He would get the most out of Lamar, unlike Monken who wanted to abandon the run and make Lamar run around behind a crap OL and buy time to throw downfield.

There are multiple players. It's always complicated with NS dominance, which prevails in a Nina. The energy riding overtop the western ridge is a separate issue from the TPV lobe. We need more spacing between that western energy and the lead digging shortwave AND we need the TPV to be in a position where it doesnt crush the digging shortwave, yet provides enough confluence to the north to keep a developing surface low tracking to our south...but not too far south. You get the picture.. its never easy unless we have a Modoki Nino with NA blocking. Then its just a come to papa waiting game with shortwaves in the southern stream.

Looks like noise on the ens mean. Not much difference. Many more runs to go. No need to spend time trying to analyze micro differences between successive runs.

To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z.

They are interviewing everybody lol He wouldn't be awful. I prefer Klint Kubiak- young OC, comes from the Shanahan tree. Actually made Sam Darnold look good lol. His dad was a very successful OC for one season for the Ravens before moving on to coach the Broncos. I think Lamar would approve. He hated Monken.

Just for you-

That energy digging southward over the western ridge is creating mini ridge out in front and that's problematic. Need that to be weaker or more spacing. Good thing is at this range that probably wont be the actual outcome. As is, it isnt that far from something good.

Been busy the last few days so haven't been paying much attention(a good thing actually) Just looking at the ens means, and this is a pretty sweet UL look. We haven't seen energy digging like this very often lately. Still not crazy about the look in eastern Canada, with the vort lobe and higher heights near 50-50, so interaction and timing is critical. Details to be resolved going forward. Op runs will have some misses, close calls/teases, and some hits. Stay calm.