CAPE

Always hard to tell with you lol. The point stands.

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Click bait. WB CFS is useless. That's a single run. That model is volatile af and changes like the wind. Only somewhat useful when averaged over several runs. If you look at it on Tropical Tidbits it is the average of the last 12 runs.

Latest edition of the Euro Weeklies continues to advertise a favorable h5 look for early Dec( and beyond fwiw).

1.2" for the day Had a tenth in the morning and the rest was from the storm last night.

Pummeled. Sounds like July out there.

Awful. And why did Keaton Mitchell disappear again after getting some chunk plays? Fucking Harbaugh. Wasn't pretty, but its a win. TY Vikings for so many gifts. Onward.

Nice downpour happening.

I did the same. As I am looking out the window its ripping fatties(oak leaves) and covering up the area I just cleared.

Dec 2009, because it was KU that occurred before Xmas(very unusual) and it kicked off the best snow season of my lifetime. Modoki Nino with epic NA Blocking that developed early and sustained through winter. My answer may have been different earlier but at this juncture that's the one lol.

That's way too far out for an extended product. Stick with the early Dec period- much more likely to have a clue. H5 for the first week of Dec continues to look good: -NAO, which as modeled on the ens runs develops in mid/late Nov but with a bit of a hostile Pac, is still present with big improvement in the PNA/EPO domain.

Peak to past peak here, but still plenty of leaves yet to fall. Spent a few hours today blowing/raking to keep ahead of it.

Maybe a couple hundredths. Fine with me as I have a ton of leaves to blow. Nice and dry..

The Ravens weren't very good that season and missed the playoffs, but that game was wild in the snow.

Imo the extended products are 'useful' a week to 10 days beyond day 15 of the latest ens runs. Beyond that.. crapshoot.

31 first freeze!

Today's edition of the Weeklies for the mid Dec period- hey we can dream a little right? Why not be optimistic heading into the first third of winter. Easy to be pessimistic.

We need to restart that early Dec snow heater. Been too long.

Its lazy. They roll that shit out every Fall.

LOL that's boilerplate climo. Lazy af. It's what most of these local mets do every Fall. How many times has that worked out east of the mountains since 2016? Hint- coastal areas have gotten above normal snow more times than not- that's well more than 0-6 lol.

Advertised h5 on the latest Euro Weeklies for the beginning of winter(Dec). -NAO/50-50 low, TPV in a good spot + EPO ridge. That pattern is sustained/improves a bit through mid month, fwiw ofc.

This is a longwave pattern that could produce some decent snow in the mountains and possibly first flakes for places east of there around Veteran's day.

He pretty much said the same thing last year lol. Hopefully Elias has been given an ultimatum this time- spend the fucking money and make this team a winner baby.

Looks good to me dude, although it is Happy Hour lol. I know you have the CAPE right. But seriously, looks good. I am sure you found the resources on YouTube that do a great job explaining Skew T plots. That's how I solidified all that stuff in my head.