CAPE
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To me its just wonky and not a useful block. Not really a block at all. That's a snapshot but everything is in motion. That trough over the Canadian Maritimes becomes a ridge a day later. That's probably what's meant by 'open Atlantic'. Shit be moving- no block in the flow.
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Heading up to NW PA?
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Still some time...maybe we can squeeze an inch or so out of this before we are forced into hibernation for 2 weeks.
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It isnt much lol. Snow is snow tho.
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For maybe an inch, not unrealistic.
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Like the op, the GEFS has been incrementally moving in the right direction at h5. 0z run compared to the most recent 18z run-
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1/1: 0.1" T: 3.4"
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It is stronger and sharper with the NS vorticity but digs it southward a bit too late. Still a minor improvement at the surface and a trend towards the Euro.
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While waiting for the 18z GFS I looked at all the 12z runs, and only the ICON has the sharp NS shortwave and digs it southward like the Euro, but it isnt quite as sharp, is positively tilted and doesnt generate any real lift up our way. eta- 18z ICON is sharper with the wave but still pos tilted and doesnt induce anything at the surface.
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Absolutely. I made a post about this yesterday. I love that you incorporated the word pedantic though lol.
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Personally I don't pay much attention to surface temps in the long range as long as h5 looks favorable. Distilling the LR takes a bit of skill.
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Beyond mid month the GEFS depicts the EPO ridge taking a positive tilt orientation causing the downstream trough to dig a bit more out west. Not an awful look verbatim as the NA is still favorable. Bottom line is I just cant care much about what any model depicts 15+ days from now.
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I think what you mean to say is that places to the south(and east) have been at or above climo for those locations while places NW have largely been below for those areas. There is a significant difference in what is 'normal' snowfall for southern DE compared to places NW of Baltimore. Pretty sure PSU has had more snow than Lewes every winter since 2017(except maybe one).
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^might as well since we are apparently heading into a total shit the blinds pattern with nothing to track for ages.
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Start a thread. Euro leading the way. GFS playing catch up.
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Yup. Exactly what we were discussing earlier, and why we don't necessarily want a +PNA with an EPO ridge. A Slightly -NAO. Could use a little stronger to flatten the SER more and encourage waves to track to our south.
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I'll just casually drop this here with no commentary. @Ralph Wiggum
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One day in the upper 60s with a southerly flow ahead of a strong cold front wont be the kiss of death lol.
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Yeah if we start getting days in the 60s/low 70s in Jan we are probably in a shit the blinds pattern.
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20% chance of snow in the forecast here. Did pretty well with that the last 2 days lol.
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Having some days in the 50s is normal around here in winter. Did ya know the high temp the day before the Jan 3-4 2022 snowstorm was around 60? It was snowing 12 hours later.
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Yeah with an amped EPO ridge we have a mechanism to deliver the cold. Having a neutral/slightly -PNA can facilitate shortwaves ejecting eastward further south. Otherwise we need a healthy NS wave to drop south and track underneath. We will need the NAO to be favorable to keep the SE ridge flat/suppressed and most of the guidance is depicting a ridge over GL in the LR.
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yep. fundamental diff eq.
