CAPE

Wrt the coastal low, there are differences in the track. GFS/GEFS is further south, while the Euro/EPS is north and hugs the coast. Makes a big difference esp for the coastal plain. GFS would have proportionally more snow with some sleet, and minimal freezing rain.

The CMC is warmer- gets us near 40 with a lot of rain. Pure slop at the end if that thing is right.

The 6z Euro Backed off the ice for our area, so more plain rain, which is what I expected. Has us in the mid 30s. Last run it only got to 29 at my location.

The Euro has a crazy amount for ice for our area, which literally never happens, so I think its wrong there- probably more sleet, some ice, then plain rain. GFS is as good as it gets for us I think- stays below freezing here, a period of sleet, then back to snow. It would be something like 8-12". Euro is hard to say because the changeover will likely be sooner, so maybe 5-8"? Then a lot of sleet and some ice on top of that. When the real deal cold comes back in we are gonna have a glacier- at least there wont be blowing and drifting of snow onto the roads in the days that follow.

Seeing a storm on some op runs.

Still seeing a signal for a coastal storm for early Feb on ens guidance. I'm still thinking there is big potential for that window.

Just read the Richmond AFD--Obvious concern but they think the Euro is overdoing the ice, which I said in my post earlier(it has almost three quarters of an inch here). The forecasters there are thinking a good chunk of that will be sleet, but expecting significant ice as well- potentially catastrophic in some places.

I'll take the sleet, but not a half inch+ of freezing rain. eff that. Euro had like 0.7" here. That s way overdone I think. It will either be sleet or ultimately go to plain rain if that track holds.

GFS has some decent backend snow too.

Legendary... more like urban myth?

Yes. It may waiver back and forth a bit from run to run, but I would be surprised if the outcome ends up much different. Maybe I'm wrong putting more "faith" in the Euro than other guidance, but AI I don't fully trust yet, CMC is almost always crap, and the GFS...well, lol. See what the Mesos look like as we get into their range.

I'm not gloomy. I don't expect the Euro to vary its outcome by much from this point forward. Not generally what it does. The ingesting new/better sampled data thing- do you know how many desperate weenies have used that one in this forum over the years? Its in the rule book lol

What does that have to do with my observation of the last few runs?

Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.

Plenty of our storms are Miller B, including some rather epic ones(see Feb 2010). More of these type, or a hybrid of such, occur than a pure Miller A. Not sure why some think they are "bad".

Agree. Want some interaction but not a full phase- keep the flow flattish and cold.

Perfect track so all in the region stays frozen- with just a bit of sleet around SBY. Ofc it probably wont work out this way.

GEFS in good agreement with the op if you use 10:1 like the ens. To be expected at this range.

About done here

Right where I want it..

Sadly, the GFS is my model of choice for this event

Gotta ride with the GFS and the AIs for now. I wouldn't expect the track to adjust back southward in future runs. North trends at close range seem to occur more often.

Blue? So 0.5-0.7 is a whiff? Damn

I only see 2, and several more that have light precip on the northern edge- and those mostly have a tight gradient, ie close to good.

That's a good track on the mean. Doesn't erode the cold from flow off the ocean.