CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Arctic front around New Years ends up dry this run for us. Potential is there for a quick shot of snow with NS energy moving along the front as we saw on the 12z run. Pretty impressive h5 look.. nice cold shot at least.
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Nothing here at all- not that I expected much more than a few sleet pellets/drizzle today. Hoping for nothing tonight- would love a dry day tomorrow to get some outside work done before the next rainy period.
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Having it persist inside of 10 days for one lol.
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Decent signal for a coastal low on the 12z EPS with a favorable h5 look up top.
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That and probably more importantly a north Atlantic block that forces the thermal boundary southward along the coast as an OV low tries to move northeastward, causing a new low to form. Gotta have more blocking, baby!
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One of the best storms/legit blizzards of my lifetime was Feb 9-10 2010.. a Miller B. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/10-Feb-10-SurfaceMaps.html
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Eh, be careful. Many of our good events are technically Miller B/hybrid. Relatively few are Miller A.
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A legit block in place as it approaches would help- as is the HP is in a good spot initially but then shifts further NE. One run though- a few tweaks in the pattern could result in a better outcome.
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And here we go. Its a possibility with NS energy moving along the boundary with a reinforcing cold shot as advertised. Something to keep an eye on.
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Pretty chilly day here. 43 currently.
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There are some subtle hints on the ens means for the first week or so of Jan. The first is possibly here-
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GFS is definitely the most favorable model for frozen/freezing precip our region, so you aren't wrong despite the disagreement on your post. We shall see how it all transpires in future runs.
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Yeah mid 20s and pure freezing rain. I had to drive in that shit from college to home- ended up doing a 360 just a few miles from home and hit a parked car. Rare storm for here as we normally go to plain rain pretty quickly with a flow off the ocean in those setups. Surface HP to the N/NE was a beast.
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They were "great" as ice storms go here as well. One(in Jan) was pure ZR- roads were an ice rink- and the other(early Feb I think) was a combo but mostly a sleet-fest. Lots of tree devastation.
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Latest Euro extended(weeklies) gets to a much more favorable h5 look sooner than the previous run- trough out west completely gone for mid Jan period, replaced by a negative EPO/followed by a neutral-transitioning to positive PNA and a more impressive -NAO. Previous run-
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GFS is all alone among the globals as far as sleet/snow goes in the majority of our region. Freezing rain? No interest.
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Seems like I just did.
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Latest GFS Ext runs have a -EPO with a west based -NAO
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Not much different on the mean compared to 12z. Noise. Y'all get too goddamn granular on the differences between runs. 18z is a hold.
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It is literally the same as 12z for our area.
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This is what we need at a minimum. A more established block /more confluence/ stronger HP to the west of the 50-50 low would be better.
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Ideally yes. Lets hope. I have my doubts.
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I could see maybe Monken and Orr taking the fall, and Harbaugh staying.. the owner seems to like him. All 3 should go, but esp Harbaugh and Monken for continuing to do the same stupid shit with the running game, which goes back to the AFC championship game against KC -pre Derrick Henry.
