CAPE
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Here we go
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Lets see how much energy ejects eastward from the SW. I think that's what did it on the previous run for around the 26-27th
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Shortwave coming in overtop caused it to dampen. Crushed it so to speak.
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Good year round crab house there.. oh fuck.. I'm talkin bout blue crabs! Costas Inn
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18z GFS a bit of a step back, depending on location. A little worse for me, but still close to 2 inches, but better for S DE, damn near 4". I might consider a trip to Rehoboth since I'm off for MLK day.
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You're in on it for Sunday on the AI guidance. Hopefully the op runs keep ticking NW/expanding the precip field the next few cycles.
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Maybe in retrospect a separate thread might have been better- we have 2 camps of folks in here talking past each other lol
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I mentioned this in my earlier post wrt the GFS- it has had this general area situated under that region-also a more impressive jet streak than the Euro.
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And now we have the latest Euro and CMC runs showing some movement NW, aligning more with the general GFS idea of 1-3". CMC especially.
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Cold powder.
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And all the sleet That storm was annoying even as it turned out to be great. Hours of sleet in the middle. Could have been damn near 3 feet here instead of 20" or so. Can't recall the exact total.
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Think small. If I get 2" out of this its the biggest event of winter. WPC had my yard at about 30% as of this morning, and 70% of >= 1".
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Might add a bit of intrigue to HH anyway
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The next few model cycles might be interesting.
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So what you are saying is- both the 12z CMC op and EURO op are now more like the GFS op, with some snow for I-95 and east. Seems like a favorable trend. eta- I should say- the 12z EURO has joined the 12z CMC and now both are more like the GFS
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Yes the wonderful UKMET and its mysterious 'great scores' Rarely see it mentioned in a NWS forecast discussion. I gotta keep promoting my storm just in case...otherwise if it does produce, unlikely as that may be, the peeps will say I gave up on it.
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..many up in SE PA that also works lol
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Just posting what the CMC depicts. We got the UKMET and the RAP up in here ffs.
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12z Canadian looks as good as it ever has for Sunday-Monday am. Better than the GFS now lol
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Its not a miss for eastern areas. Has 2.5" here verbatim. Now do I believe its correct?
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Just looked further upstairs on the GFS and I think the snow its developing over eastern parts of our region is driven by the upper jet- right entrance region of a pretty impressive jet streak aligns with the location where the snow falls. Euro is weaker with that feature. That might explain the persistence on the GFS despite the low position being pretty far offshore.
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The models know lol
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The way it looks on the GEFS we could initially have some rain/ice and then as the deeper cold comes in we end up getting some snow. Pretty loaded look though with all that moisture. Verbatim this would be snow on the mean for the region with the colder air in place.
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0z UKMET is wetter than the GFS. Has about a half inch of precip for my yard.
