CAPE

Is the GFS a serious model anymore?

High of 27. Currently 25.

Snippet from AFD from Mt Holly. Pretty informative even if we don't see direct impacts from the upcoming coastal storm inland. The very cold temperatures and bitter wind chills will persist the remainder of the week and beyond. This will occur due to a deep upper level trough centered over Eastern Canada with repeated re-enforcing shots of arctic air swinging in from the north and west around this feature. For Wednesday night through Saturday, expect morning low temperatures in the single digits to negative single digits with each morning actually looking slightly colder than the previous one due to these re-enforcing shots of arctic air. More importantly, there will be at least some winds through most of this period with early morning wind chills still expected to be sub-zero region wide with negative teens N/W of the I-95 corridor to even around -20 in the southern Poconos. Some moderation in temperatures may occur Sunday into early next week however temperatures still look to be well below average. Overall, it is exceedingly rare to get this combination of length and magnitude of an arctic airmass for this area and it should be taken seriously for those who have to venture out in the cold for extended periods of time. KEY MESSAGE 2...A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the east coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast details remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of the area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding. Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic zone along the coast. In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this still hinges on the exact track the storm takes which remains uncertain at this time. The latest GFS trended west some and is overall not too different than the GEM. The latest EC is still farther east than these models. It is also worth noting that there continues to be spread in the GFS ensemble members (the GEFS) with the ensemble mean a bit farther east than the deterministic . So this all said, it boils down to whether the storm tracks farther northward along the coast before turning east (bringing the area greater impacts) vs. being quicker to turn east meaning the track would stay farther away bringing more limited impacts. Potential impacts include not just heavy precipitation but also strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field.

Natty Blend. Damn.

6z mean isn't bad. Better than 0z.

Some fairly subtle changes at h5 on the 6z GFS results in a somewhat better outcome. Have to wait and see if this is a 'trend' or just the typical run to run differences we tend to see at this range.

Go Canada

Its not 'last minute'. Look at the orientation of the ridge over S Canada north of the GLs- it folds over- essentially an anticyclonic wave break

Its only the 2nd of this winter. And the first produced a widespread half inch to 2 inches! This is the original and probably the one and only Cape storm. I identified the way out of the shit the blinds pattern and it actually worked out. https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20220103 I did/still do like early Feb, so we shall see. RN it looks like places right along the coast might get nailed, subject to change ofc.

Beach chase run. Rehoboth..Dogfish Head. Yeah baby.

1/25: 7" snow/sleet (plus 0.3" zr) Total: 10.8"

Its a Nina. East gets rocked. You get gray at best.

Yeah its a hell of a hit to me lol

I need a foot of snow to thoroughly bury this glacier lol. Walking on top of the ice sheet unless I stomp my feet to break through to the snow.

People post em and they will end up there. Plenty of folks on those platforms generate them.. And why not? Its happening here lol, and still 5+ days out. I have liked the potential for this window for awhile, but probably a little soon to go nuts over snow maps. I'm focused on h5 and what the 'trends' are looking like, mostly leaning on the ensembles. Signal for something good is getting stronger.

I slept like a baby and I'm headed out to chisel my jeep out of its encasement and try to get to work lol. This may have been posted but no time to browse 20 pages. This is pretty tasty and close enough for a mean at this range. Like I said last night there is plenty of time for guidance to correct any possible errors with the key features, and we all know nothing is ever nailed 5+ days out. More changes likely to come.

So I see some excitement has returned for Feb 1st. Y'all left it for dead.

You might be right, but I think most of the region is still in the game. Just look at the current storm and what was advertised on guidance 5-6 days ago. Didn't quite work out that way lol. Plenty of time for possible errors upstream to be revealed and corrected.

The ridge axis/orientation has been the primary issue on recent runs compared to what was advertised a few days ago. But yes, still time for the models to show us they don't usually get key features quite right 5+ days out.

It is a great look. The problem(as you know) is these advertised 'big potential' h5 patterns at this range tend to end up somewhat different the closer we get. This coming weekend looked full of potential 5-6 days ago on the ensembles. The the analogs reflected the potential. So as always, we keep checking run-by-run, day-by day, and see how the guidance evolves. It would be nice to get some snow in the next 10 days. Early Feb still holds some potential imo. Still a week out.

Too bad the Broncos have no QB.

This game in Denver is wild. Conditions deteriorated rapidly. Just a cold day in the first quartet to a snowstorm and damn near whiteout in the 4th.

A legit glacier here with the freezing rain on top of the sleet on top of the snow. This wont be going anywhere for awhile.

3Km NAM has a high of 31 before it starts to fall. Its done the best with thermals today.

Temp seems to be holding pretty steady at 29 now.