CAPE

At this range, the ensembles should very closely resemble the op, or something is probably wrong with the model lol. I think we are probably past the point where the GEFS offers any real insight.

One thing to consider- that's some hella impressible Arctic air that's gonna be in place, so the primary shouldn't push too far north before redevelopment off the coast, then its a question of is it more likely to have a tucked coastal low further north, or a tad more south/off the coast in a situation like this? A legit case could be made for the GFS- and we arent talking worlds apart here.

Not sure anyone would be complaining if HH GFS worked out.

It has the best overall outcome for the majority of the region. Ukmet kinda supports it. Not the best combo lol

Yeah, they aren't sure what the fuck to go with for now, so a little bit of everything with ambiguous wording. Understandable given the disparity at this juncture. Overrunning precipitation develops on a developing warm front out ahead of the surface low Saturday night. With temperatures mainly in the teens, any precipitation that develops will be snow and snow accumulations will occur quickly. With snow ratios from 15-20:1, can expect a quick 1 to 3 inches over northern zones, 3 to 6 inches from around Philadelphia, through southern New Jersey, and into northern Delmarva, and 5 to 7 inches across southern Delmarva. What will need to be watched is if snow ratios lower late at night across southern Delmarva as warmer air lifts to the north. From there, snow continues to ramp up throughout the day Sunday. 12Z models have continued to trend to the north, and as a result, more in the way of warmer air will spread into the region aloft. The 12Z/22 ECMWF looks to be centered over the Delmarva Peninsula by Sunday evening, while the 12Z/22 GFS has the center of the low some 50-100 miles southeast of the ECMWF. The 12Z NAM now goes out until 00Z Monday and splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS. The 12Z/22 CMC is even a bit more to the northeast than the ECMWF. Ultimately, this results in a warmer solution, and can expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain well into southeast Pennsylvania, mainly along the I-95 corridor, and northern New Jersey, while rain and snow will develop along the New Jersey coast and southern Delaware. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, precipitation remains all snow. Cannot rule out a period of plain rain for portions of the southeast New Jersey coast and southern Delaware coast. This wintry mix continues through Sunday evening before changing back to all snow late Sunday night. Snow then continues into Monday morning before ending. Overall, snow accumulations look to be on the order of 12 to 15 inches for the majority of the area, with slightly less in southern Delmarva.

Gimme flat. Need flatter flow.

Mount Holly slightly bullish for here for now- 4-8" Sat night, then snow/sleet Fr rain on Sunday, snow could be heavy at times. Kinda hedging their bets.. seems like they don't really see enough of a consensus among the guidance. Haven't read their AFD yet. First things first- Getting a couple bourbons in me lol.

lol that's awful. The model is generally crappy though, just like its global parent.

We will find out soon enough lol

I question the amount of freezing rain the Euro is depicting for the DC area up towards Baltimore. Something seems off with that. Probably some of that is sleet.

The developing coastal low is tucked on the Euro and CMC. GFS has a damn near perfect track to keep almost everyone frozen. Be great if it has the right idea, but its kind of alone, and it is the GFS.

Typical 'dry' run for Euro. I think it tends to do this then ultimately juice back up.

I have a class to teach starting Monday. Gonna be a hell of a fun drive in early Monday morning. At least there's no real traffic to deal with.

Wound up coastal hugger can be mixy, so we'll see.

Hey that's my storm, so I should get it lol. Been saying big potential in that window for coastal storm.

Not that uncommon away from the water in the interior(where I am) esp with snow cover . Hit 0 once and 5-10 is pretty common with a cold airmass in place with clear skies and no wind. There is literally nothing around here to hold the heat. Forecast low is 9 for Friday night, with no snow otg. Probably see low single digits next week.

Wrt the coastal low, there are differences in the track. GFS/GEFS is further south, while the Euro/EPS is north and hugs the coast. Makes a big difference esp for the coastal plain. GFS would have proportionally more snow with some sleet, and minimal freezing rain.

The CMC is warmer- gets us near 40 with a lot of rain. Pure slop at the end if that thing is right.

The 6z Euro Backed off the ice for our area, so more plain rain, which is what I expected. Has us in the mid 30s. Last run it only got to 29 at my location.

The Euro has a crazy amount for ice for our area, which literally never happens, so I think its wrong there- probably more sleet, some ice, then plain rain. GFS is as good as it gets for us I think- stays below freezing here, a period of sleet, then back to snow. It would be something like 8-12". Euro is hard to say because the changeover will likely be sooner, so maybe 5-8"? Then a lot of sleet and some ice on top of that. When the real deal cold comes back in we are gonna have a glacier- at least there wont be blowing and drifting of snow onto the roads in the days that follow.

Seeing a storm on some op runs.

Still seeing a signal for a coastal storm for early Feb on ens guidance. I'm still thinking there is big potential for that window.

Just read the Richmond AFD--Obvious concern but they think the Euro is overdoing the ice, which I said in my post earlier(it has almost three quarters of an inch here). The forecasters there are thinking a good chunk of that will be sleet, but expecting significant ice as well- potentially catastrophic in some places.

I'll take the sleet, but not a half inch+ of freezing rain. eff that. Euro had like 0.7" here. That s way overdone I think. It will either be sleet or ultimately go to plain rain if that track holds.

GFS has some decent backend snow too.