CAPE

Funny. Also contributing is that they apparently have been serving lettuce tainted by the parasite that is causing long term explosive watery diarrhea. Lovely.

I monitor my dad's solar array and this is exactly the case.

Yep. My yard is as bad as yours since the beginning of March. I pay no attention to the predictions of an inch or more from NWS/WPC a couple days out, because it is not going to verify. At some point the Nino coupling to the atmosphere will take over and this awful dry pattern will shift- but not likely for another month or so.

Yeah there was that, but also some drier air moving from NE to SW. That dry line triggered the training storms over Jersey. The cell that developed and moved southeastward over your area could have been related to that, but weaker and on a a smaller scale.

The CanSIPS advertised h5 pattern for latter part of winter certainly implies cold enough at times. Love the look out west with the Aleutian low placement and the amped EPO ridge. Has the TPV in a favorable spot and suggests a -NAO.

Yeah that storm popped right over the bay. Did you see that training line of storms that moved across central/southern NJ? Some 4" amounts in that area.

Latest CFS runs still going Giga for late winter. Typically when we have the highest probability of a major east coast winter storm during a Nino.

Latest from Mount Holly on the smoke- Latest HRRR/RAP smoke guidance continues to depict that a slug of dense near surface smoke from the wildfires originating over western Ontario will spread into the region tonight. Skies will likely be quite hazy with visibilities projected to fall between 1 to 3 miles overnight, before improving some on Friday. With more of a northerly surface flow expected overnight and into early Friday, this may suppress the worst of the smoke south of our area by mid-day. However, as flow shifts to more southerly by Friday night, guidance is hinting that surface smoke may return into the weekend.

Not as hot as it could have been, but dewpoints are hideous. High of 93. Currently 92 with a DP of 78

It certainly is beautiful there. But yeah, hard to not cheer for Messi.

I was rooting for them too. Damn that match changed quick. Stunner. Messi is an all time great. The final will be fun to watch. No real rooting interest.

Mount Holly AFD snippet- While some areas will likely reach the century mark again, it will not be quite to the magnitude that we experienced to start July. Humidity will be a little less as well, and the hottest conditions will only last for one day. However, heat index values are still forecast to range from 100-109 degrees for most of the area, again hottest from along and southeast of I-95. A modest westerly, offshore wind near 10-15 mph should help keep the sea breeze from making much inland progress during the afternoon hours. Thus, we expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices near 100-105 degrees even for the New Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. The limiting factor in how much we heat will be smoke from Canadian wildfires. We are already seeing the first plume of wildfire smoke dropping south into the the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and that will insulate the region from the highest heat. The smoke should again help mitigate how much heating we receive tomorrow so while temps are going to be hot and there are no changes to any heat headlines, we are not fully maximizing the potential heat that the thermal profile suggests we could warm to.

Rain needed, and plenty of it. Except for what I water, everything is fried. Starting to see crispy leaves otg from tree stress.

62 this morning. Refreshing.

This team just won 4 consecutive games for the first time this season, and are still 5 games under 500. Sure the AL sucks ass but they have not demonstrated the ability to go on a run to get them to/over the 500 mark. They will probably start the second half with a mediocre addition or 2 and proceed to lose 3 or 4 in a row. No reason to believe otherwise.

With Elias at the helm, 100% something completely illogical will transpire.

Well they won, but lose Blaze to a broken hand. Orioles can't have nice things.

CanSIPS likes that idea.

Some of those years we had cold air delivery via a -EPO and a well timed/transient -NAO that supported a snowstorm. Jan 2017, 18 and 2022 are examples.

We need a -AO and or -EPO to deliver legit cold. Outside of that we rely on a dynamic system(evap/dynamic cooling) with a very favorable track, and probably need a significant, established negative NAO to feed cold enough air southward as a coastal low climbs the coast. That's kind of always been part of the formula, esp in a Nino, but might be a bit more of a challenge today. Thus why I generally don't mind Ninas at all lately given my location, mostly depending on the NE Pac ridge position/orientation.

Not the case several times in recent winters- although most of those were Ninas. Jan 2022 is a perfect example(my storm.) We were in shut(shit) the blinds mode with no apparent end in sight and 10 days or so later there was a major snowstorm across much of the area, and it stayed pretty cold and snowed another time or 2.

This seems to concur.

H5 went from shit to sugar over about 10 days leading up.

Yeah most of the activity firing behind this boundary is staying east in DE.

I'm sure they will miss my yard lol. 7.3" here for A-M-J and so far in July. Thus the extreme drought.