CAPE

I cant help but admire the surface.. how often do we see a wall of HP across the north and west with juiced up overrunning and a low emerging off the NC coast. No mutha fucking Great Lakes low.

Yeeeaaah I dont think so lol

Bob chill!

WB

Incoming.. cold powder

I like my Sat night forecast- 80% chance of snow with a low of 13. Bring that shit.

Y'all what some good feels, check this out

Snippet from Mount Holly latest AFD- they are the better local forecast office, until they mention the 12k NAM. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM have actually gone up quite a bit, now showing a 70-90% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 60-80% chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas south of Philadelphia, with probabilities gradually falling off further north. Likewise, the probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) has increased further with now almost our entire area expected to observe at least Moderate Level winter storm impacts. As noted with the previous shift, these probabilities are higher than the prior forecast cycle.

That's it. People are anxious.. need something to look at NOW and either validate their hopes or stress the fuck over.

No idea, and I don't care to know what they were talking about, or why.

No idea why anyone here, let alone the NWS, would give 2 shits about the 12km NAM. Esp extrapolating lol. That model is damn near useless.

Completely agree.

Haven't had time to look at anything since this morning. Just checked the 12z Ens runs and all look great. What did I miss?

I've been busy all day. Wonder if the whinging and meltdowns over op runs have been predominant from the usual. (my guess is yes) I just checked the 12z ensembles and they all look fine. All I need to see until HH. On we go.

Latest AFD from Mount Holly- Signals in the upper level pattern by late week and the weekend becomes quite active between the northern and southern stream jets. The key elements embedded in these features are currently located over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, so it`ll likely take at least a couple more days for guidance to have a good handle on this system. However, almost all available guidance depicts an area of low pressure developing near Texas Friday before tracking eastward along the Gulf coast into Saturday. Beyond Saturday there still remains forecast uncertainty regarding the details of how this system will play out for the east coast. However, at this time most forecast guidance tracks the low north and east towards the North Carolina coast and then off to the north and east from here by the Sunday into Monday time frame. This track puts the mid Atlantic region on the northern side of the system with the main question then becoming just how close to us does the low track. There will be a very strong and broad arctic high to our north and some of our prior guidance had suggested this may be strong enough to suppress the system just south of the area. But over the past 12 to 24 hours there`s been a general trend northward in guidance suggesting the precipitation shield will make it into our area. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM now show a 60-70% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 40-60% chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas roughly along and south of the I-95 corridor with decreasing probabilities farther north. These probabilities are higher than with the prior forecast cycle. So while this system still is about 5 days out, the signal for a winter storm to impact at least parts of the area is higher than usual. The timing of this would be as early as very late day Saturday continuing through Sunday and potentially even lingering into Monday depending on the system`s speed.

At first glance I read that as " Big Stout" lol. Which reminds me I need to get some before the weekend. OK back on topic!

Google AI- Key Methods for Determining Snow Ratios in NBM: Temperature-Based Algorithms: The SLR is highly dependent on boundary layer and low-level temperatures (surface to 850 mb). Generally, colder air results in higher ratios (fluffy, dry snow), while temperatures near freezing produce lower ratios (wet, dense snow). Melting Rates for Marginal Temperatures: For temperatures at or above 32°F, the NBM v4.2 incorporates idealized melting rates. The total SLR is reduced based on the ratio of melting to accumulating snow, effectively lowering the ratio if the snow melts as it falls. Dynamic/Algorithm-Based Ratios: Instead of a default 10:1, the NBM uses algorithms that consider factors such as: Wind Speed: Higher wind speeds can lead to lower ratios due to snowflake fracturing. Cloud Structure: The presence of supercooled water droplets (higher riming) vs. depositional growth influences the ratio. Ensemble Member Blending: The NBM uses output from several models (HRRR, GFS, ECMWF) to calculate a probabilistic snowfall, utilizing the best-performing models to determine the most likely ratio for a given area. Elevation Adjustments: Ratios are adjusted upward at higher elevations to account for colder, drier conditions in mountainous terrain.

That's what we are talking about lol. Already posted.

Yeah looks like it factors in multiple variables for SLR.

I would assume so.

Latest blend. I think we got us a solid signal across guidance for a major winter storm lol

2 ft in southern VA including the Northern neck lol

It is 'funny' how Josh Allen mistakes are downplayed while Lamar's are magnified. Imagine if Lamar turned the ball over 4 times in a playoff game then cried afterward. The hate would be off the charts. Good player, but the Josh Allen love by the media is nauseating.

I just want a long duration snow event with temps in the mid teens. Strong lift through the DGZ with 15:1 or better ratios. Is that too much to ask? Been awhile.