CAPE

This will be the third(or fourth) blizzard for S DE since 2017. I was there for that one and then the bomb cyclone of Jan 2018. This one will also be a bomb. That area has done very well with these Nina coastal lows.

Forecast here currently has 8-14". I Wont be home to see it happen. Kinda sucks. I will head to Easton tomorrow afternoon and stay at the school tomorrow night.

At this point the ens is going to pretty much mirror the op run.

The EURO doesnt have the outcome quite right at this juncture, but it will adjust.

Look at the upper levels. A lot going on with the vorticity interplay. Subtle differences aloft impact what happens at the surface- specifically the surface low development and track. Lets look at the latest GFS, CMC , and Euro at h5-Best outcome to worst. It really comes down to the strength, timing, and the angle of the individual pieces of vorticity and how they phase, which impacts the tilt of the overall trough. One of the above looks a bit different than the other 2. Pretty subtle, but different.

Better for medium to long range forecasting for general pattern recognition and and more efficient wrt computing resources. Not the best inside 3 days with resolving details.

AI isn't the best as we approach gametime where small scale details matter. Rely on the physics based guidance at this juncture.

Where's Chuck? Cowbell +PNA baby

Pretty much every member depicts the same thing. Like no spread.

Almost exactly the same, which is what you would expect at this point.

If this comes to fruition the GFS is a champ, and all other guidance are chumps. It figured out the complex interplay of the individual pieces of vorticity and once it locked on it never waivered.

Damn

Have a few voddy tonics and a gummy

I wasn't here at that time but the P-day blizzard of 79 was epic.

0z Natty Blend. Pretty.

Yeah all the students will arrive on Saturday. I have to make it there or they have no teacher lol

I'll probably need to go to Easton Sunday evening and stay at the school for my class that starts at 8am. Hate to not be home for this but it is what it is. Driving in early Monday morning with potential blizzard conditions is probably not a good idea. They have a bar there so I'll be fine.

Not speaking of the NBM specifically, but rather ratios in general- some of the modeled soundings show very impressive vertical lift(omega) through the DGZ with surface temps at 32 over this way at certain points in the storm- how high could the ratios be in that scenario? 15-1 maybe?

I don't think money is the problem.

Latest EPS Its happening

18z EPS looks really good. Getting there.

Good man. Hell of a sacrifice.

What did I miss? Da hell are you doing there?

Looks like that crazy GFS model may have had the right idea all along.