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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Natty Blend. Damn.
  2. CAPE
    6z mean isn't bad. Better than 0z.
  3. CAPE
    Some fairly subtle changes at h5 on the 6z GFS results in a somewhat better outcome. Have to wait and see if this is a 'trend' or just the typical run to run differences we tend to see at this range.
  4. CAPE
    Go Canada
  5. CAPE
    Its not 'last minute'. Look at the orientation of the ridge over S Canada north of the GLs- it folds over- essentially an anticyclonic wave break
  6. CAPE
    Its only the 2nd of this winter. And the first produced a widespread half inch to 2 inches! This is the original and probably the one and only Cape storm. I identified the way out of the shit the blinds pattern and it actually worked out. https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20220103 I did/still do like early Feb, so we shall see. RN it looks like places right along the coast might get nailed, subject to change ofc.
  7. CAPE
    Beach chase run. Rehoboth..Dogfish Head. Yeah baby.
  8. CAPE
    1/25: 7" snow/sleet (plus 0.3" zr) Total: 10.8"
  9. CAPE
    Its a Nina. East gets rocked. You get gray at best.
  10. CAPE
    Yeah its a hell of a hit to me lol
  11. CAPE
    I need a foot of snow to thoroughly bury this glacier lol. Walking on top of the ice sheet unless I stomp my feet to break through to the snow.
  12. CAPE
    People post em and they will end up there. Plenty of folks on those platforms generate them.. And why not? Its happening here lol, and still 5+ days out. I have liked the potential for this window for awhile, but probably a little soon to go nuts over snow maps. I'm focused on h5 and what the 'trends' are looking like, mostly leaning on the ensembles. Signal for something good is getting stronger.
  13. CAPE
    I slept like a baby and I'm headed out to chisel my jeep out of its encasement and try to get to work lol. This may have been posted but no time to browse 20 pages. This is pretty tasty and close enough for a mean at this range. Like I said last night there is plenty of time for guidance to correct any possible errors with the key features, and we all know nothing is ever nailed 5+ days out. More changes likely to come.
  14. CAPE
    So I see some excitement has returned for Feb 1st. Y'all left it for dead.
  15. CAPE
    You might be right, but I think most of the region is still in the game. Just look at the current storm and what was advertised on guidance 5-6 days ago. Didn't quite work out that way lol. Plenty of time for possible errors upstream to be revealed and corrected.
  16. CAPE
    The ridge axis/orientation has been the primary issue on recent runs compared to what was advertised a few days ago. But yes, still time for the models to show us they don't usually get key features quite right 5+ days out.
  17. CAPE
    It is a great look. The problem(as you know) is these advertised 'big potential' h5 patterns at this range tend to end up somewhat different the closer we get. This coming weekend looked full of potential 5-6 days ago on the ensembles. The the analogs reflected the potential. So as always, we keep checking run-by-run, day-by day, and see how the guidance evolves. It would be nice to get some snow in the next 10 days. Early Feb still holds some potential imo. Still a week out.
  18. CAPE
    Too bad the Broncos have no QB.
  19. CAPE
    This game in Denver is wild. Conditions deteriorated rapidly. Just a cold day in the first quartet to a snowstorm and damn near whiteout in the 4th.
  20. CAPE
    A legit glacier here with the freezing rain on top of the sleet on top of the snow. This wont be going anywhere for awhile.
  21. CAPE
    3Km NAM has a high of 31 before it starts to fall. Its done the best with thermals today.
  22. CAPE
    Temp seems to be holding pretty steady at 29 now.
  23. CAPE
    I was just outside cleaning/chiseling off the jeep and put a tarp over the front half. I need to be out early tomorrow morning. I really do hate freezing rain. We will have a glacier that will be around for a month lol.
  24. CAPE
    It was mostly the sleet that caused that.
  25. CAPE
    Mount Holly lowered the high temp here to 31, which aligns with guidance, which has the high between 30-32. Been rising fairly quick though the last hour or so. 28 now.
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