CAPE

Nobody here cares about the reason why though lol.. its all about the goddamn snow maps.

Significant step towards the GFS imo-

The primary difference I see is the NW to SE vorticity ribbon dropping southeastward in the flow from Canada is more robust and phases with the energy taking the southern route. The SLP over SC begins to develop at that point. As for why it digs more and climbs the coast then tucks as it intensifies, I think it has to do with the ball of vorticity seen here over SW MN that emanates from the tail end of that ribbon, and THEN ultimately phases in- no other model has had that.

Check the Panasonic?

At this range there should be less spread among the members with the mean looking more like the op run, and that's what is happening. Doesn't mean its correct.

The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker.

Thats pretty much what it looked like at that point on the previous run. Its beyond that where the action happens.

Because its hideous lol

Just looking at the 0z EPS panels- there is a definite increase in the number of members that have a significant coastal low close enough to the coast compared to 12z yesterday.

The ens mean looks more sensible- has the most snow in the climo favored areas

In a few years maybe all the physics based models will be, other than short range hi res.

Could be rain in a few runs

Gotta deal with reality- I have to drive 30 mins to work to teach a class that's starts on Monday morning- all the students will be there already. In cases like this in the past I get a room and stay there ahead of the event. Lets see what the Euro does today- its not perfect but more times than not is has the 'more correct' idea.

6-10" and call it a winter. Fuck I'll take any snow.

LOL

We need to keep reminding ourselves- these are simulations of what could happen.

lol that's a damn blizzard

The 12 Km NAM is putrid. Garbage. It should be legacy already. Stop. Next legit run is the GFS.

Not a bad post from you.

Ok. So?

This thread has got the mojo. @Maestrobjwa Now don't fuck it up.

Improvement

Snippet form Mount Holly mid afternoon AFD- KEY MESSAGE 3...Latest model guidance suggests the region will be on the northwestern edge of a potential storm forecast to be just offshore on Sunday and Monday. Model guidance continues to show low pressure moving off the Southeast or Mid-atlantic coast Saturday night, and then deepening a few hundred miles off the Mid-atlantic coast Sunday into early Monday before moving eastward on Monday and out to sea. There is a large amount of uncertainty as to how impactful this system will be to the local region with some guidance suggesting light to moderate snowfall in the New Jersey- Philadelphia metro-Delaware regions, and other guidance showing no snow at all over the entire local area. That being said, as it stands currently, areas south and east of Philadelphia still have the greatest potential for impacts from any snow and wind Sunday afternoon into early Monday. In the wake of this storm, a much colder air mass looks to settle into our region early next week. High temperatures probably do not get out of the 30s both Monday and Tuesday