CAPE

h5 looks pretty favorable for a cold Dec. Aligns with the extended products. Jan has the same general idea but not quite as cold at the surface. Love how these seasonal products tend to have the majority of the NH with warm anomalies and one relatively small area of cold lol. Seems to always be the case. At least its close to us!

Lamar is the highest rated QB in the NFL. 73% comp, 14 TD, 1 INT, 136.7 rating. No 2 is Drake Maye at 118.7. He is second to Dak Prescott in QBR.

Dominating second half, and the D is forcing turnovers. Trending up. Just need to get Faalele on the damn bench. EDC needs to make some moves - go get Zeitler and Calais Campbell.

When will this team admit the interior OL sucks and make changes? Fucking Harbaugh. Trade for Keven Zeitler. Also give the damn ball to Mitchell- Henry cant run outside at all.

Just for shits and giggles, the most favorable h5 pattern(droolworthy?) as advertised on the latest Euro weeklies is heading into mid Dec.

They are pretty damn healthy now, and are more talented than Miami. No excuses. If they lose, they beat themselves.

0.85" event total here.

0.72" so far. Most of that has fallen in the last few hours.

Hey y'all.. it's gonna rain!!

You're on the right track, I think. Both tornados and hurricanes exhibit vorticity and wind(a vector quantity). The big difference is the scale, but at a given point the wind velocity is what it is in both cases. Now consider the vorticity and lift. Much of the extreme damage we see in a tornado results from the(straight line) wind at a point PLUS the very strong localized lift within the more localized vorticity- an intense localized suction vortex. This produces the forces we see in videos that dramatically rips off roofs and uproots trees while lifting the debris rapidly upwards. Tornados are more intense, or 'violent' in a much more localized area.

Harbaugh is an atrocious coach. Its criminal that he has designated Mitchell inactive for so many games, said he was not a "good enough" kick returner, and said he was the odd man out/putting him in would make it obvious to the defense he was getting the ball. He truly is an incompetent boob. A little late for this isnt it? So fucking dumb. Oh yeah, the plan HE came up with. GTFOH. https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/baltimore-ravens/john-harbaugh-keaton-mitchell-plan-bears/

Who is they lol? He says he is a science teacher. That being said, last winter was not one of the coldest on record.. it was cold relative to current climo.

There will be some wind so plenty of leaves will come down. And I have a lot yet to come down lol. All I have to do is look up at all those leaves. The blower is tuned up and ready.

One feature that continues to be a constant on all the extended products is an Aleutian trough, with a downstream +PNA.. and also to varying degrees a -NAO. We shall see how it plays out but good signs for now as we head into early winter.

Just keep the damn -PNA at bay Chuck.

Eh, when there is snow otg for damn near 3 weeks in these parts given current climo, its pretty damn cold. Hard to compare it to 'cold' winters decades ago for obv reasons.

Latest QPF from WPC I think its probably gonna rain

Still some differences in the evolution and track across guidance. Go with the blend.

The weeklies/extended tools can be useful, but probably only for a week or so beyond day 15 on the ens run in most cases. Just my opinion based on experience. Not to say they can't have the right idea 30 days out but it's more of a crapshoot.

Do you realize a single Euro control run extended to day 46 is the equivalent of extending one run of the GFS deterministic out 46 days? And what you posted is a 30 day mean of the Control for that period. How useful do you think that is? Here is the latest run a day later-

Your observation is probably(at least partly) because we have had quite a cool early Fall that has continued through October, instead of the usual second summer that can be warm right into mid October. Color definitely seems ahead of schedule here. Nearing peak. The upper Midwest has also been generally above normal, so without significant elevation differences it probably evens out. Just my take.

I'll be pissed if they trade him, but that's the word among the pundits. Again, this is a Harbaugh thing. "He is the odd man out". Oh fuck off with that crap. Hopefully he is out after this season, although I doubt it.

One nitpick today- the Ravens guard play is still bad, because they made no changes lol. What happened to the open competition during the bye week? Harbaugh hates Ben Cleveland. Just cut the guy. At least Keaton Mitchell got a chance- most likely showcasing him for a trade. I will always and forever want Harbaugh fired because he is a fucking dolt.

If the Packers beat the Steelers tonight, Ravens would only be 2 games back.