CAPE

Yup. Said that in my post last night too. Precip is developing earlier(further west) rather than right overhead.

Yeah I'm a little late changing from my Fall pic aren't I?

I told y'all in my post last night it was happening and why. It has been incremental over several runs as guidance has been getting a better handle on the h5 vorticity interactions.

I think almost everyone sees an inch or 2. Mid shore 2-3, maybe 4 in a few spots. Upper and N DE there might be some 5-6" amounts. 12z GFS is nice- Juiced up quite a bit.

I have a feeling they will upgrade to warnings for the upper MD eastern shore, N DE, and a chunk of NJ with the afternoon package.

Mount Holly is pretty bullish For this package, main changes to the forecast were a modest uptick in snowfall, which resulted in an expansion of the winter weather advisory northward and southward. Both expansions are still a little marginal, 2-4 inches along the I-78/I-287 corridors (criteria is 3 here) and 1-3 inches in Sussex County Delaware (criteria is 2 here), but enough confidence is present to bring them into the fold. Across a large central portion of the advisory, areas along and southeast of I-95 in PA, NJ DE and MD, we`re now expecting a wide area of 3-5 inches, and there are some snowier models suggesting a stripe of warning criteria (which is mostly 5 inches in this area, though 6 in central NJ) could occur. Not quite sold on that yet given potential for lost QPF from the transition from rain to snow, but its definitely on our minds for potential changes. For now however, kept advisory level forecast across this region, though high-end for sure.

Yeah that's a nice run- a general 3-5 for much of the region.

Still a NE MD/N DE jackpot but notable expansion northwestward of accum snow where there was barely anything on previous runs.

There is a subtle but definite trend of a deeper trough as that ball of vorticity digs a bit more southwestward over the past several runs.

It's really not that important- but if you want to call it a clipper, that's fine.(not sure what a 'regular system' is exactly). It is a NS wave moving along an Arctic boundary, with some interesting mid/upper level dynamics at play. Not all 'clippers' behave the same way.

Pretty clear trend for 4+ amounts to occur from NE MD to N DE into SNJ, maybe as far north as Philly.

Latest blend. The 4" over my yard is from some of the CAMs, like the FV3. Not buying that. All other guidance indicates 2-3.

Same here. Did it for the last minor event too.

Very upper ES, N DE into interior SNJ maybe. Marginal tho. Would probably just go to a warning

The RGEM would certainly make more people happy, but it doesnt really fit the specific features driving this event- it simply looks like the more impressive precip(snow) will fall in a relatively localized area. Hard to envision 4" in Frederick to N central Carroll Co AND 4-5" from N DE to Philly into in SNJ.

AFD from Mount Holly. Some weenie terminology in there lol -Confidence continues to increase that a snow event that will impact the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. A clipper system will ride along the base of a closed upper low, moving across the Ohio River Valley during the day Saturday and into the Mid Atlantic states Saturday night before moving offshore Sunday. As this clipper system arrives across the region, the closed upper low will begin to reopen as an amplified trough, providing baroclinic forcing that will assist in the strengthening of a weak clipper system into more of a broad offshore low. As it strengthens, guidance shows a zone of strengthening 700-850mb frontogenesis (FGEN) developing across the southern half of the region as snow begins Saturday night into Sunday morning. Forecast soundings plentiful cold air through the column that is well saturated aloft with plentiful moisture within the dendritic growth region. All of this would point to a zone of potentially some increased snowfall intensity for a time early Sunday morning with snowfall rates potentially as high as 1" per hour at times. There still remains some potential on the southern fringe of the precipitation shield that the precipitation starts as some light rain or a mix of rain/snow before changing to all snow. Lows Saturday night will fall squarely into the 20s, supporting this all-snow event. The model consensus puts the axis of the maximum precipitation amounts very close to the I-95 corridor, favoring areas just south and east. Overall, a widespread 2-4 inches of snow are expected across the Highlands from northern NJ into southeastern PA, the I-95 corridor, and across the coastal plain into the central Delmarva Peninsula and the rest of southern NJ, including the Jersey Shore. Given the increasing potential for mesoscale FGEN snow bands, there is a potential for a concentrated are of 4-5 inches of snowfall somewhere near the I-95 corridor and immediately south and east with up to 20-30% chance for for a handful of reports over 5 inches in that specific area. At this time, we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the forecast area.

Zoomed in from Warner Brothers

This event is going to be driven by what happens in the upper levels, not so much where the weak low forms and tracks. Our region gets underneath the right rear entrance region of a strong jet streak for a time- this area is favorable for strong lift, and is why the heavier stripe of precip essentially forms in place. Question is exactly where that feature will be located, which varies slightly among the guidance and run to run. It will be a small scale event, so relatively few will be happy with the result.

Latest blend juiced up

Love the OZ ICON. How's the 0z lookin?

Latest NBM still suggests a general 1-3" across much of the region. Go with it for now. If there is meso banding that produces locally higher amounts, that won't be resolved until closer to game time.

Just how dry it is from the previous run. Not that this is exclusively a NAM thing, but it does tend to vacillate pretty wildly. The proverbial 'NAMing' that lasts a run or 2 then disappears.

Gotta love the NAM. Such a predictably awful model lol. When they gonna retire the damn thing?

Yeah whatever falls falls. But most of the life of a snow weenie is in fact spent living and dying with each model run. Come on dude, you know this.