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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Don't forget the pure heavy snow event for eastern NC while we smoked cirrus. We missed that one and have had nothing since. Piss and moan over- at least i am in the appropriate thread for it lol.
  2. CAPE
    Even that starts upstairs.
  3. CAPE
    High of 42
  4. CAPE
    I should have posted that in the other thread because most here only care about the surface- specifically snow maps. It all happens upstairs.
  5. CAPE
    Disparity. Which one is closer to reality? Time will tell. A strong jet streak upstream amplifies the trough on the Euro. Not so much on the GFS.
  6. CAPE
    I have 6" log outer walls- R value isnt the best but not as relevant because of the high thermal mass(heat storing capability).
  7. CAPE
    lol DT. He is still relevant?
  8. CAPE
    Snow has melted off the outdoor furniture, some on the roof, and on the deck. Not so much on the frozen ground. Still full coverage around 5" most places.
  9. CAPE
    ^lol I am agreeing with you. Will posted the Control run.
  10. CAPE
    I turned my thermostat up to 70 given the relative warmth outside. Heat pump not working so hard and I dont need to start a fire to keep it from running constantly. Kinda liking this.
  11. CAPE
    Yes it is the "right" map- if there is such a thing 40 fucking days out. It's the mean. He loves the Control run for some reason.
  12. CAPE
    Yeah its actually 'caving" a bit to the GEFS, which hasn't been as enthusiastic about the favorable look in the NA or the western trough weakening/progressing eastward after the 20th. We shall see.
  13. CAPE
    Lucky for you, this has a zero percent chance of verifying.
  14. CAPE
    Yeah kinda gross. I would only eat that if he never touched it.
  15. CAPE
    I would live in Boulder, but I don't make more than 150k 1.5 million.
  16. CAPE
    Its definitely fancy. I would tear that up.
  17. CAPE
    Not enthused about this storm potential overall, but given the 6z run and that 12z was close- it just missed a phase(occurs too late offshore) and so off the coast the primary shortwave goes without gaining enough latitude. Main takeaway even with a miss at 12z, the best physics based model we have access to thinks its cold enough to snow in much of the region given a strong LP and track to our south, at least for now.
  18. CAPE
    This your first post here? Sure its a wrap.
  19. CAPE
    Wow just noticed you moved to the desert. Congrats!
  20. CAPE
    Was cloudy earlier but the sun broke out and temp now up to 42. Still full coverage but melty.
  21. CAPE
    We still rely on model guidance itt, but no snow map hugging, and no bitching and complaining after every 'bad' op run.
  22. CAPE
    I looked at a webcam from Truckee the other day and no hint of snow. Not even left over piles from a previous storm- which means there really haven't been any lately.
  23. CAPE
    Perfect phase, strong LP, and a perfect track. That has to be the outcome! The temps are just above freezing where it has the heaviest snow. Heavy precip dynamic cooling deal. Clearly the best chance for snow in this pattern is NW with elevation.. if the storm makes it there. Pretty crazy run-to-run variations- busy NS, so its difficult to resolve wave timing and degree of interactions.
  24. CAPE
    Yeah it isn't going to snow down there in this upcoming pattern lol. Barely any chance up in our area. If they get precip its gonna be rain. The cold airmass is long gone. Good for them tho.. we be droughting.
  25. CAPE
    AI= Reliance on Historical data/much faster processing/better with resolving general patterns Physics based = Slower processing but superior wrt complex, small scale details/unusual weather events Just my take from what I have read. Personally, I rely on NWP/physics based models over AI. When I want granular details, NWP is where its at.
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