CAPE

Wow clearly a lot of weight given to the GFS. Didn't realize that. I will keep that in mind for future events with that product.

Look I am rooting for the northern tier. I honestly don't care if I get more snow. Kinda done with it honestly. Above avg is way more than I expected going in, and 20+ days with snow otg in Jan. Unheard of these days. A- winter here. That said, the GFS is literally all alone, JMA aside lol. It can't event get the UKmet on its side.

18z only goes out to 144. Based on the look of the flow in the upper levels, I would guess no.

LOL

American global model awful lonely with this one. Wonder why?

How far out can the NAM be extrapolated? GFS needs some help man.

low of 18

23 approaching 9pm. Cranked up the wood stove. Probably the last time this winter/early Spring.

I just took a walk to the back of my land into the seasonal woodland wetland area, which usually has a foot of standing water by mid March when I apply the first round of larvicide. It is bone dry. No soft or swampy areas at all. I am guessing the water table is still a couple feet below the surface down there. It would take a couple heavy rains over the next 2 weeks to get it close to breaking the surface.

Looks like the high will be 35 here. 34.5 now.

12z GEFS pretty much agrees.

I think the Euro probably has the right idea- no snow anywhere close.

21 this morning

Quiet in here. I am guessing HH GFS didn't snow on us.

51 Heading outside to do some Spring things before the cold and wind arrives.

Its here! March 1st. There will be a few brief colder spells over the next week to 10 days, but it looks solidly above normal on the means from mid month onward. Need some rain though.

The 0z EPS and GEFS are underwhelming for that window, then the pattern is trough out west, ridge over the east through the end of the run. Nice look for those who want Spring.

^I honestly don't remember that storm lol

Probably. There is a bit of a signal on the 0z EPS. GEFS is similar. See what the ens means look like over the next several model cycles.

Marginal airmass dynamical cooling deal. The storm will generate its own cold air!

Zachary Labe Research Physical Scientist (NOAA Federal) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability and Predictability Division Email: [email protected] CV Google Scholar ORCiD ResearchGate Web of Science RESEARCH INTERESTS — My current work explores the intersection of large-scale climate variability and change, extreme events, large ensembles, decadal prediction, and data science methods. In addition to academic research, I am very passionate about improving science communication through engaging data visualizations. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/26/us-climate-research-agency-noaa-cuts Target.

Eh it won't matter. The Models won't miss that critical upper air data associated with NS energy way out there. Maybe we can get another Jan 2000 surprise!

THAT CAN ONLY BE A.................... GOOD THING!! FOOL!!

LOL. Pretty rich coming from you. Stick to making your obs posts no one cares about.