CAPE

Yeah it made a move in the wrong direction out west.

As advertised stretched but still damn cold. Probably not a significant disruption. I honestly don't pay much attention to the strat stuff anymore. Too disconnected from where actual weather occurs.

Reminds me I need to pick up some avocados today. Gotta have Guac for tomorrow.

Temp shot up quick in the last hour. Up to 27.

Looks like the Saints are the only team left with a HC vacancy. I don't believe they have even mentioned interviewing Monken. Seems likely he will be back with the Ravens as OC. I like Monken, but he needs to work on his play calling in key situations in the game. Still wants to pass in cases where it makes more sense to run Henry. And the design and execution on the 2-point conversions left a lot to be desired- and again favoring passing with a reluctance to go heavy and slam it in with Henry. Might seem like nitpicks but have been critical in key moments of important games. Go back and look at the sequence preceding the Tucker FG in the second quarter last Sunday. They had the ball at the 2 yd line! Should have scored a TD there. With the other mistakes overshadowing, this big missed opportunity seemingly went unnoticed in the end.

Worth noting the 6z GEFS isnt as cold as the EPS and CMC ens, with a less pronounced EPO ridge, and mean trough centered further west. Leaves a flat SE ridge on the ens mean. Still a very workable pattern with slightly colder than avg temps in the east. The 0z run had kind of an ambiguous h5 look but was somewhat colder for the east. Not digging into the members but probably more spread wrt the pattern evolution on the GEFS.

Going in, 2014 was probably the best possible outcome for this winter. So far it's pretty close. Looks like we are shifting back into a cold period early to mid Feb after a modest milder period. Ensembles are hinting at multiple waves propagating along the thermal boundary, which should be in an increasingly more favorable location for our region as we get into the second week of Feb.

Literally took this looking out the window as the sun came up.

Predominantly white when I look out the window this morning. Some bare spots and thinning, but largely snow covered. Should be mostly gone in the next few days.

More notable southern low camp among the 6z GEFS members. 24 hr snow mean reflects this.

12 Ready for the brief warmup. Need a reset. Wash the salt encrusted jeep. Then more cold and snow.

Very Canadian like at h5.

Colder pattern gets established the first week of Feb with EPO going negative. Thermal boundary should be pressing southeast with potential for waves riding along it in the Feb 6-9 period. Looks pretty cold for the central/eastern US going forward.

For the Feb 2-3 storm the CMC continues to advertise a more wintry outcome for our region. It gets there initially by having less interaction/phasing between the ejecting southwest ULL and the trough digging south from the GoA, and secondly as the low tracks eastward there is significant northern stream vorticity digging southward in southern Canada that flattens/compresses the flow overtop, encouraging HP at the surface with the low tracking further south. Interestingly on the 0z GEFS there are a half dozen members that have a similar look to the CMC op with a track right over or south of our region and they have snow/mixed precip for the area. There are 2 others with a Miller B look.

HH GFS is actually an improvement with less interaction/phasing with the digging trough out west. The Southwest upper level energy escapes eastward a bit more vs being pulled north. Not much difference wrt sensible weather in our area, but the change is notable. Stronger HP overtop in southern Canada.

Ravens do too. They went young on the OL this season and there were some growing pains early, but it paid off for the most part. They might let Stanley go if they can get younger talent there next year. There is a reason they are a top 3 rushing team year after year. D-line is talented with a good mix of youth and vets, but will be an area they will try to upgrade in the draft with all the comp picks they have.

Philly was the only team that actually BEAT the Ravens this season. When they lose they almost always beat themselves. Ravens made a few mistakes in that game but the reason they lost is the Eagles dominated in the trenches- on offense and defense. When a team has both a physical and talented O-line and D-line, it covers up other weaknesses, and even there the Eagles don't have many. It really isn't so much about Hurts, but he does need to make a few plays in the passing game. I would be surprised if the Commanders can hold the Eagles under 200 yds rushing. But if their O-line can keep Daniels pretty clean, he can make some plays downfield, and the game is close in the 4th quarter, they will have a chance. They got the mojo right now.

Well, probably looking at 10 days of nothing interesting ahead, at least. Thread would be dead otherwise lol.

The worst matchup would be KC and Philly. We just saw that play out 2 years ago. Boring. I want the Bills to win, but If it ends up KC vs Washington I wouldn't hate it. Love to see them get there for a chance at a 3-peat and lose to an upstart team with a rookie QB.

Let em. Who cares. They do anyway. Anyone in the sports media who has any credibility would not use Daniel's early success as evidence Lamar has somehow underachieved. The reason they lost to KC at home last Jan and Buffalo last week are not solely on Lamar. Monkon, Harbaugh. Flowers, a rash of penalties, and last week mostly Andrews were big reasons. Lamar had 2 bad plays the whole game - a misread on an interception that amounted to a punt, and the fumble on a bad snap that he should have just fallen on, and Buffalo scored off that one. He was pretty much spectacular outside of those 2 plays. The Andrews fumble when the Ravens had all the momentum and were driving for a probable go ahead score was THE killer. Game changer. His drop on the 2 point try was bad, but that would have only tied the game. Allen would have had 1:30 and 2 timeouts to make a few plays and set up a game winning field goal.

Why would that be embarrassing? How about Daniels getting a ring before Allen or Burrow? Or Goff? Would that be embarrassing for them?

It comes mostly from 3 members with pretty big hits between the 2nd and the 4th. Almost nothing on the rest.

A couple tweaks on the Canadian evolution(mostly a little stronger/further southwestward HP over southern Canada) and at least some of our region could see more sleet/snow.

If you expand out the view so the upstream trough near the GoA can be seen, might be a hint of less/later interaction as that trough digs southeastward. The Canadian has a different orientation wrt the WPO ridge and that trough, the trough isn't as deep and there is less interaction/ northward 'pull' on the ejecting shortwave energy.

I will be watching that shortwave energy up in Canada. With the antecedent HP over the eastern US exiting stage right as the storm approaches, we are going to need a flow of cold/dry air from the north given the low is not likely to take an ideal track to our south. Might get a Miller B deal though.