CAPE
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This is the upper level pattern for early next week. Suppression is not the failure mode I would be worried about with this look. Imo it wont be easy to get an all snow event. Best shot very northern parts of the region.
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It has sneaky potential. Should be included in the other thread probably, so this one can focus on next week.
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I've been super busy with work and haven't posted since Sunday. I skimmed the LR thread thinking I might make a post and couldn't really find a reason to. Things have certainly escalated over the last 2 days.
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A -PDO definitely tends to mitigate the impacts of an el Nino. Probably more so in our current regime.
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Here ya go. SER wasn't an issue.
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No. Last year guidance kept teasing with a classic Nino look- lots of action in the STJ with negative h5 heights across the south/southeast, and strong NA block developing- then the rug pull. Advertised pattern totally went to crap. eta- that was Feb. We did have a nice Nino-ish period in late Dec into Jan, with modest snowfall. SER wasn't an issue though.
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Given the lack of support from other guidance, that's pretty worrying.
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The 12th looks great- for PA northward
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GFS is just so unsteady compared to the Euro. Entertainment value anyway.
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We all waiting on the 12th..
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The GFS will ultimately cave, or its going to bust. Northern MD has a shot at some front end frozen and maybe some minor ZR before flipping to rain.
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I'm 100% confident an inch+ of snow isn't going to fall here. GFS is off its rocker lol. Most interesting aspect with this event is the potential for another half inch of rain after a few mangled flakes and 10 mins of sleet. Denting the drought.
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The overall signal for a winter storm in that timeframe has been notable to strong on the means for a few days. Impressive.
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Now that's some HL blocking right there
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h5 avocado with Barney at the surface
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Euro with an insane h5 look at the end of the run
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I guess the QBO phase is the one element that doesnt align, but the amount of impact it actually has always seemed a little nebulous to me.
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Strongest upper divergence north of the MJO convection. Euro has the wave propagating eastward so an extended jet core makes sense.
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well yeah- look at that +PNA!
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Yeah this look is probably a little too soon. Hopefully we get there. That is a pretty nice track though.
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The second one looks like a cold Miller A storm that takes a classic track.
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10 days out. Hopefully the trend is a little colder and souther, and not the other direction.
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The strongest signal for a MA winter storm has been around the 12th across ens guidance, and that went up a notch on the 0z runs. Surface depiction on the EPS. GEFS looks similar.
