CAPE
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There is a break between the 2 waves. The second one begins as snow before going over to mix/rain. This is the actual snow map for wave one, and up to an inch of that for central VA into S MD is from today.
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Suppose its snowing heavily in S VA and you are smoking cirrus? Without an Arctic airmass in place your more northern area could easily be warmer.
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I never said the ensembles looked amazing for next weekend, but there is some uncertainly for that period wrt the overall evolution and storm track.
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Don't sleep on late next weekend/PD. Probably not PD III but I have kind of liked that period. Some ens members on the 12z run were pretty interesting.
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Why expect it to be the same? Different op run at range- more than a week out.
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+NAO? That's mine btw.
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Maybe
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31. All freezing rain since the start. Icy on the deck but don't think roads will be a problem. Should go above freezing in the next couple hours.
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Absolutely, but a little too late for a PDIII potential storm.
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Btw, PDIII potential here.
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Not as much time to fuck off on here for sure. Just calling it as I see it. It's but another op run and quite possibly does not represent the actual outcome. Hopefully we can do better.
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Not the best look up top at the surface. Not horrible, but with HP off the NE coast its hard to imagine we don't mix or go to rain beyond the end of that run.
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To be a -NAO or not be a -NAO. Call it what the hell you want but that's a hell of a HL block.
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Completely agree with this.
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That was a Dilbert reference lol. Love that one. I like to think I am pretty level headed with my posts.
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I have the knack. I am an engineer. I am pragmatic and cold. Utter social ineptitude.
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Even that period is tricky. Guidance is still all over the place. Timing of shortwave energy up north/associated confluence and exact location and strength of HP at the surface are yet to be determined, and pretty much mean everything wrt p-type for our region.
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I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well.
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HH clown map through mid month
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He is kind of in the same boat as RevWarReenactor. Misses out/gets fringed on a lot of scrapers/sliders, and struggles with the marginal events where it snows just to the NW.
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The block is just beginning to get established at that point. We need some good wave timing up top, and not too much amplification of the shortwave to our SW.
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Keep an eye on the area of confluence to the north and the strength of surface HP. We want that 1037 high over southern Canada like the 12z run yesterday, not a 1030 sliding off the NE coast.
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That might be the textbook definition of a -NAO, but for practical purposes the NAO is solidly negative on the means by early next week. So is the AO. I somewhat agree that the advertised pattern for next week generally supports mixy events, but a mostly/all snow event is possible with favorable timing/less amplification.
