CAPE

Yeah its actually 'caving" a bit to the GEFS, which hasn't been as enthusiastic about the favorable look in the NA or the western trough weakening/progressing eastward after the 20th. We shall see.

Lucky for you, this has a zero percent chance of verifying.

Yeah kinda gross. I would only eat that if he never touched it.

I would live in Boulder, but I don't make more than 150k 1.5 million.

Its definitely fancy. I would tear that up.

Not enthused about this storm potential overall, but given the 6z run and that 12z was close- it just missed a phase(occurs too late offshore) and so off the coast the primary shortwave goes without gaining enough latitude. Main takeaway even with a miss at 12z, the best physics based model we have access to thinks its cold enough to snow in much of the region given a strong LP and track to our south, at least for now.

This your first post here? Sure its a wrap.

Wow just noticed you moved to the desert. Congrats!

Was cloudy earlier but the sun broke out and temp now up to 42. Still full coverage but melty.

We still rely on model guidance itt, but no snow map hugging, and no bitching and complaining after every 'bad' op run.

I looked at a webcam from Truckee the other day and no hint of snow. Not even left over piles from a previous storm- which means there really haven't been any lately.

Perfect phase, strong LP, and a perfect track. That has to be the outcome! The temps are just above freezing where it has the heaviest snow. Heavy precip dynamic cooling deal. Clearly the best chance for snow in this pattern is NW with elevation.. if the storm makes it there. Pretty crazy run-to-run variations- busy NS, so its difficult to resolve wave timing and degree of interactions.

Yeah it isn't going to snow down there in this upcoming pattern lol. Barely any chance up in our area. If they get precip its gonna be rain. The cold airmass is long gone. Good for them tho.. we be droughting.

AI= Reliance on Historical data/much faster processing/better with resolving general patterns Physics based = Slower processing but superior wrt complex, small scale details/unusual weather events Just my take from what I have read. Personally, I rely on NWP/physics based models over AI. When I want granular details, NWP is where its at.

Yeah. Looks cold enough.

Check out the other thread. Reason for some optimism.

Lets see if it holds, but for now it looks like the last week or so of the month could be cold, and hopefully not dry. Sucks we have had this glacier otg for 16 days with historic cold and no fucking precip.

Wave timing is terrible. There is no block so the vortex moving though the (nearly) 50/50 region is exiting and with that the surface HP is sliding off the coast.

Take a quick peak! The maps will most likely be disappointing, but probably wrong, so still some hopium!

New post in the *technical* thread for those interested in the pattern progression/storm chances going forward.

This a general post about the pattern going forward and 2 potential windows to keep an eye on for a storm. First the period around the 20th. The advertised pattern progression is a bit delayed compared to guidance a few days ago. Here we see the PAC ridge extending northward from an unfavorable position into the WPO domain. This timeframe still holds some potential for a storm but not looking as strong as it was a few days ago. As of now areas to our north are favored for winter precip. Anomalously cold air is starting to build into NW Canada. A few days later we have a -WPO with a mechanism to deliver colder air into our nearby source region and then southeastward into the NE and MA.. The trough out west is weaker and progressing eastward. The NA looks favorable with a -NAO and 50-50 low, and there is a flat/suppressed SE ridge. You can optimistically visualize a storm track just to our south. This is pretty far out but there is an indication of a storm on the mean- looks like a miller B but ofc this is highly subject to change at this juncture. The surface look up top is pretty damn good for a LR mean, indicating HP to the NW and LP to the NE.

lol this is pretty funny Busy with work but in general I don't think there is much more to be said about this weekend and we don't do copium/hopium there. I might make a post later about the 19-22nd window.

This is a good read from Forbes. Rolling Stone and other sites have a similar breakdown of the performance. What Did Bad Bunny's Halftime Show Mean? Every Cultural Reference Broken Down Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl LX halftime show was a joyful masterclass in cultural storytelling. Every element, from the opening shot to the final football spike, carried deep meaning rooted in Puerto Rican history, identity and resistance. https://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahabraham/2026/02/08/what-did-bad-bunnys-halftime-show-mean-every-cultural-reference-broken-down/

What's the avg total precip in DC for DJF? Probably about 9". Typically an inch or so of that is frozen. Seems like plenty of folks haven't learned their climo, and maybe should STFU.

They gave up zero points in the SB. The one TD was a kickoff return.