CAPE

Big fat flakes coming down here currently. Closing in on an inch.

lol recent Ninos have not been good here. Nina baby!

Snowing hard now with nice sized dendrites. Seeing some yellow on radar. Hopefully this lasts for awhile.

Man I hope Mt Holly was right about that 1-2" call.

Temp fell to 32 here within an hour of precip starting but rates have generally been light since. That's the bigger problem when we are looking at a short duration event.

Started snowing here around 330 but at 34 and light intensity, lost an hour to non accum snow. Temp right at 32 now but mostly light snow outside of one moderate burst. Quarter inch or so on the deck and looks like some better returns on radar might be moving in shortly.

Actually moderate, but I will take 3-4. That seems to be the high end for here.

Liking the latest HRRR runs. Has 4" here with the heavy band still ongoing at the end of the run.

Lol rain. This is big boy shit. We aren't dealing with rain here lad.

Apple weather app lol. Holy Shit. And you are an actual weather hobbyist?

Yup. Understandable. Get under the FGEN bands and its a different story. Outside of that there is some uncertainty about how cold it gets how quick in conjunction with how long it actually snows moderately once it gets going.

Probably. I always thought 3" was probably the max here. Just a bit odd how 'aggressive' they were this am and much less so now.

The HRRR is inherently variable run to run. If you don't like the current edition, wait an hour and the next one might make ya feel a bit more warm and fuzzy. Take the avg of 5 runs, or, don't bother looking at it.

38/29 Forecast here from Mount Holly is for 1-2" now, from 2-5 this morning. Most of the latest guidance is depicting the same, or more than the early am runs. They have their reasons. Probably temps at the beginning, and less likely to get in on the good banding- and a different crew making the forecast lol. Whatever falls, falls.

You should let the run finish sometimes.

It gets drier as other guidance is juicing up. Toss.

Yup. Said that in my post last night too. Precip is developing earlier(further west) rather than right overhead.

Yeah I'm a little late changing from my Fall pic aren't I?

I told y'all in my post last night it was happening and why. It has been incremental over several runs as guidance has been getting a better handle on the h5 vorticity interactions.

I think almost everyone sees an inch or 2. Mid shore 2-3, maybe 4 in a few spots. Upper and N DE there might be some 5-6" amounts. 12z GFS is nice- Juiced up quite a bit.

I have a feeling they will upgrade to warnings for the upper MD eastern shore, N DE, and a chunk of NJ with the afternoon package.

Mount Holly is pretty bullish For this package, main changes to the forecast were a modest uptick in snowfall, which resulted in an expansion of the winter weather advisory northward and southward. Both expansions are still a little marginal, 2-4 inches along the I-78/I-287 corridors (criteria is 3 here) and 1-3 inches in Sussex County Delaware (criteria is 2 here), but enough confidence is present to bring them into the fold. Across a large central portion of the advisory, areas along and southeast of I-95 in PA, NJ DE and MD, we`re now expecting a wide area of 3-5 inches, and there are some snowier models suggesting a stripe of warning criteria (which is mostly 5 inches in this area, though 6 in central NJ) could occur. Not quite sold on that yet given potential for lost QPF from the transition from rain to snow, but its definitely on our minds for potential changes. For now however, kept advisory level forecast across this region, though high-end for sure.

Yeah that's a nice run- a general 3-5 for much of the region.

Still a NE MD/N DE jackpot but notable expansion northwestward of accum snow where there was barely anything on previous runs.