CAPE

Yup. We had an arctic desert for 20 days.

Two things can be true at the same time. Not debating the 2 degree warming, but each synoptic setup, although similar, will have some details that are different but important. I'm just not sure this 2 degree difference can be applied across the board. Seems like an oversimplification that doesnt account for the nuances. The current setup may or may not have had a different(more favorable) outcome in the 1970s. Devil in the details- that hasn't changed. The current airmass is almost entirely Pacific in origin with a significantly negative PNA, while the AO is positive and the NAO is neutral. The only decent cold is to our NE, and no real mechanism to involve it in the storm as it stands. Need better than that to somewhat negate the unfavorable Pacific imo. We needed a stronger low with a better track as we saw in several model cycles a few days ago, and dynamic cooling got the lower levels just cold enough for a paste bomb.

Yep. It isnt perfect, but we often see the so called 'perfect pattern' and nothing comes of it. We get snow from flawed patterns sometimes.

Winter is probably not over yet, even though it may seem like it looking for specific winter storm threats on recent guidance. The overall advertised longwave pattern going forward is not bad. We don't always need perfection mid to late winter to get snow.

No idea lol. At some point I will be looking to upgrade. Getting close to 120k miles.

I have been a Jeep person for decades lol. I have had a 96 Jeep Cherokee- 5 speed manual with power nothing, a 2000 Limited, a 2005 Hemi Grand Cherokee Limited, 2 SRT Grand Cherokees(2008, 2012) and more recently 2 GC Overlands, currently a 2017 with 117K miles on it.

I am heading out to wash the Jeep now. Damn near 3 weeks of being salt encrusted and there wont be a better time than now. Sunny and upper 40s.

If I were a mod I would restrict him to the Panic room. Not even banter. He can shit that up too.

Check the last 2 runs. It would get credit for nailing fuck all. You are literally the worst poster here. Please stop.

The steadiest global model wrt snow over the last several runs has been the ICON. The 18z NAM looks about the same.

Down to about 75% coverage, Lower part of the driveway is a swamp. It may have been dry af the last 19 days, but there is over an inch of water in this stuff so as it melts it's putting a dent in the dryness/drought. 48 here

Forecast here actually has snow in it- less than a half Sunday night and the same for Monday. Translation- there might be a period of snow TV.

The Blend

lol It must bomb the low. 'generates its own cold air'

Yet the reality is its been dry as a bone other than one storm. Arctic desert cold.

I tend to agree wrt the potential centered on the 20th, but it has trended somewhat colder overall on the ens means and still 7 days out, so worth monitoring for more favorable changes.

Friday HH drinkies Stopped in to one of my go to liquor stores 2 miles from where I work with the intent of picking up a big ass stout, and then I saw a bunch of 120 min IPA Limited release singles on the shelf- 9 bucks a piece! Fuck yeah I picked up a few. IMO the best 120 version ever, primarily due to the dry hopping which was never done before with this beer. That zing at the end after the malty/sweet dark fruit middle is incredible. eta- One thing about the dry hopping- it doesnt age well. So while complex beers like this one overall get better/smoother with age, the dry hop component will pretty much disappear.

Around the 20th on the AI ENS- Miller B-ish like the GEFS. Its all about the NA. The signal for the 24th is weaker, but there. Expected given how far out that window is. We got some chances before March, and probably beyond- The key features are a WPO ridge and a favorable NA.

There is a bit of a signal on the AIFS ENS. Mostly north but still way out there obviously.

I thought it was 19. Either way its a hell of a streak. The open fields around me are thinning with some bare spots, but here in the woods still 90% or so with the sunny side out that back showing a few bare spots.

I wouldn't sleep on the 20th. The H5 look has improved some on recent runs, specifically in the NAO space. A deep upper low near the Maritimes is helping to compress the flow underneath and the potential storm looks less like a cutter and more like a Miller B on the GEFS.

Weak and south wont do it. This has always been about a strong low, which requires a damn near perfect phase at h5, and a perfect LP track, with heavy precip and dynamic cooling. A lot to ask for just to get it to snow moderately. The antecedent airmass is pretty bad.

Sounds fun. Enjoy it. It isn't gonna snow in the lowlands here lol.

A -PNA can work if the other key indices are favorable: -AO/NAO and a ridge in the WPO and /or the EPO space.

Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side.