CAPE

Speaking of the trenches, they better make a change at at least one guard position this week. Looking at you Faalele. He is so terrible yet we are constantly told he is talented and improving. GTFOH with that shit. Ben Cleveland is better and a natural guard but perpetually in Harbaugh's illogical doghouse.

We often snow in imperfect synoptic set-ups, and fail in the ones that are "ideal". Reality.

Yes, we know.

I didn't say the entire roster was bad. If a team isn't good in the trenches, they aren't good lol.

I don't see a meaningful trade happening. I mean, who is actually available that will have a big impact? Simmons? Crosby? No chance. They got what they got and will have to live with it. Why the hell is Ojabo still on this team? EDC has done a poor job with this roster overall.

lol nitpicking. It's a super LR mean. Follow the flow- as advertised there is a mechanism for cold air delivery- number 1 ingredient for snow.

Moving this discussion here. If this is the general longwave pattern we see for winter.. sold.

The one feature you like to see on the LR ens guidance and the extended products is the advertised persistent Aleutian trough and downstream PNA ridge. Not Nina-like. We shall see how it plays out going forward. eta- Continuing this in the winter thread. More appropriate there.

Ravens sign Carl Lawson. Eh, mid. Not likely gonna move the needle much on pressuring the QB.

Lamar practiced yesterday and today, but was limited. Really need to see him be a full participant tomorrow to be confident he will play Sunday. Bears lead the league in forcing turnovers. Cooper Rush will fumble twice and throw 4 picks lol.

Yeah that's what I meant- the extended products continue the same advertised longwave pattern from the end of the ens runs the beginning of the month. And I agree- given we will be in Nov with that look, frost/freeze should be a thing outside of the UHI.

The extended products continue to depict a significantly +PNA and slightly -AO/NAO for the second week in Nov, with below normal temps for the east. Love me some chilly Fall weather.

+PNA and a sweet HL look. SE ridge crushed to oblivion. Non existent. It can happen! Lets hope it does when it really matters.

Still looking chilly for the end of Oct into the first week of Nov. Nice h5 pattern and one we would probably take our chances on a couple months from now. For those interested in snow for the western highlands, the mean for this period is 2-3 inches fwiw.

It's possible given the look. Still pretty far out. GFS suggesting some upslope in early November with LES in the NW flow behind a cold front.

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.

0.18" Pretty much what latest guidance was advertising for here

If you look at the snowfall map a 20-25 mile shift would have done it. That would have put my area in the bullseye instead of Cambridge, and you would have gotten a solid 4", probably more with your elevation. The folks on the southern fringe- eh, fuck em'. https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20220103 Very nice overview of the storm, but ofc the maps are never perfect. Official report for Greensboro was 9.8". I measured 9 but I am NW of the town. According to the map this area was in the 6-8" zone.

I get all that, but the Jan 22 storm for example wasn't a a typical Nina late developing/Coastal scraper. That simply took a track a bit too far south for the northern areas in our sub. Temps were near 60 the day before- that was a healthy wave tracking along a strong cold front but had a bit too much push southward for your area. That could have easily been a nice regionwide snow event with a few tweaks. That's the one I identified in the LR as a potential event when we were in the hopeless 'shit the blinds' pattern. The general idea on guidance was pretty consistently a wave tracking along the boundary with colder air pressing southward. Everyone other than those at the immediate coastal areas(where ~12" is avg) should expect below the long term mean seasonal snowfall and be content with a few light to moderate events during cold ENSO winters. As you know we don't often see mean snowfall- its the relatively rare way above avg years- mostly Ninos- combined with plenty of below avg with some 'normal' winters mixed in that produce the long term mean.

Not duds for the MA region as a whole. The bomb cyclone in Jan 2018 and the 'Cape' storm in early Jan 22. There were additional light to moderate events for the coastal plain in those winters too. Sorry it didn't work out for the NW crew, but that's just kinda bad luck. Roll the dice with those synoptic setups again.

Not sure its an early read. It tends to happen more times than not in a Nina, probably in neutral ENSO as well. Anecdotally when we are in a Nino models tend to get more juiced as we get closer to an event. Not really too surprising when you think about the pattern tendencies.

Yeah the advertised late Oct- early Nov pattern looks like one that could snow in the western highlands.

Siberian HP is strengthening, as it always does in Fall with decrease in sun angle and efficient radiational cooling in a hyper continental climate. Probably a bit earlier this year.

Sipping an Ardbeg Wee Beastie 5 yr old single malt Scotch whiskey before going out with the blower to dispense with the first round of leaves. It's Fall for real.