CAPE

I will go with B+ A 9"+ storm in early Jan with well below normal temps keeping snow otg for 20 days doesn't happen often here. Also had a couple minor 'snow refresher' events too. The Feb storm produced 8.5", even if it was almost immediately washed away by rain. The epic model fail that followed was tough and had something even decent materialized it would have made this an A winter here, but a nearly 20 inch total is above avg and combined with the cold Jan and overall deep winter feel with prolonged snow over, I can only downgrade it slightly.

The mid Feb to early March modeled epic look (lol) was a fail. We should be used to that by now.

Yeah the worm will turn at some point for the northern tier. Hopefully a mod Nino next winter.

Since winter is pretty clearly over, what grade do you give it? IMBY specific ofc. Mine is going to be fairly high. I will post it later tonight or tomorrow.

low of 23

A little surprised. Kinda thought he would hit FA and end up in KC or NE.

He is trending on the X. It isnt good lol

If the Os expect to consistently compete with the big boys, at some point the ownership needs to be aggressive and be willing to spend money to acquire free agent talent. Just the reality with teams like the Yankees, and to a somewhat lesser extent Toronto and Boston in the division.

Always seems to end up the worst case scenario with the Os pitchers lately tho. That was the point I think.

Cold wind. Mild wind. Warm wind. But yes, always wind. Next week's wind will be southwesterly, and bring warmth.

Brief lifetime? What are you, 12?

Looking Spring-like next week. 60s and probably low to mid 70s for a couple days.

1.47" I think my dry wetland may be a little wet now

While we desperate for it, these people are so bored with snow

1.36" so far. Still getting moderate to heavy rain. Overperformer. Had a thunderstorm out ahead of the main line earlier that produced a brief power outage.

Who cares. GFS is correcting towards the other guidance. South of us isnt getting snow either.

I agree. That was a damn cold airmass and the thermal boundary was modeled to be suppressed along/ just off the SE coast. The complicated part was the TPV lobe and the possibility of enough interaction to lift the developing low northward. There was a general lean across the ens runs of favoring areas SE of our region for significant snow overall, despite op runs depicting big snows further north with the possible phase. The EPS was probably the biggest offender initially depicting a large area of 6-8" on the snow mean across our area for a few runs in support of the big snows advertised on the Euro Op, before trending SE. None of the models came close to nailing the final outcome until closer to game time though. It was more of a gradual shift over multiple runs.

LOL I don't think I would use the last storm(fail) as an example. Objectively, they all had it wrong in unison bigtime, then backed off. I'm not going to give much credit to the one that was first to figure it out, if there was one. That was a model debacle across the board.

Looks a little closer to the Euro than the GFS to me given the flow. And honestly, which model would you trust more? EURO or UKMET?

IDK, maybe. Never see it mentioned in the AFDs. Probably an indication that it isn't given much consideration, yet.

The AI is experimental. How about the Euro and CMC? And the UKmet?

Look at the upper levels. Broader ridge, NW flow. More confluence. Gets crushed, shunted off the coast well south.

Wow clearly a lot of weight given to the GFS. Didn't realize that. I will keep that in mind for future events with that product.

Look I am rooting for the northern tier. I honestly don't care if I get more snow. Kinda done with it honestly. Above avg is way more than I expected going in, and 20+ days with snow otg in Jan. Unheard of these days. A- winter here. That said, the GFS is literally all alone, JMA aside lol. It can't event get the UKmet on its side.

18z only goes out to 144. Based on the look of the flow in the upper levels, I would guess no.