CAPE

Mount Holly as a low of 8 here. Looks about 10 degrees too cold per guidance. I get it's a cold airmass and it will be near optimal radiational cooling conditions, but with no snow cover, IDK.

Agree 100%

I don't necessarily think our window of opportunity is limited to early- mid Jan. Looking way out there towards the end of Jan/into early Feb on the latest Euro weeklies(fwiw), a period where many have suggested the pattern will become hostile/shit the blinds- it probably does trend more towards a typical Nina, but this is far from a shutout pattern should it materialize. It in fact looks much like h5 leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm. If that EPO ridge keeps on keeping on, we should continue to see opportunities for a wave to track underneath along the thermal boundary at times, with a flatter SER.

Go back and look at my post from this morning for that same period, focusing on the jet stream and h5. One astute poster asked if I was predicting a redux of the 96 storm.

Inverted trough. Models love to depict heavy precip from that feature in our area in the LR, but it always ends up Philly and north.

Yeah long duration snow tv lol. I had that one intense band come through that coated the deck and grass. Snow too light/temps a tad above freezing since. Still, it's a few hours of snow falling. No complaints!

Dover radar on COD. Weakening a bit now though.

Those yellows and oranges on radar to the NW look interesting.

33 with moderate snow. Coating!

Snow tv with temp at 34. If it comes down a bit heavier might get the temp to drop to near freezing and get a little coating.

A had a few flakes a a few weeks ago with some weak thing moving though. It was cold and dry so not much.

35 with big wet flakes mixing in with the the rain here.

That has to happen in order to get anomalous cold into the lowlands of the midlatitudes, in particular places that are moderated by proximity to oceans.

A 'torch' in Siberia in Jan is like -20c

As long as the Mongolian High is intact all is well with winter in the Mid Atlantic.