40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Epic PNA/EPO aided cross polar flow.
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Quick update on the pattern moving forward..... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/mid-month-pattern-change-signals-active.html
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It hasn't been more than 8 degrees from freezing in Boston since Christmas.
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We still need to see how long the neg NAO/AO remains.....I still feel like it goes in February, but we'll see.
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Pretty poor winter here, but with a neg NAO, probably better here and not as good there.
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I think the GEFS look best next week, followed by the GEPS and of course, the most accurate EPS third. They are all decent, though.
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This is pretty much 2018-2019 with an NAO.
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Bad timing....the block fades a bit before redeveloping.
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I know given the antecedent frustration, there are many who will be disenfranchised that we may not see an ideal pattern, but I can tell you that I will gladly trade the PNA for a negative EPO. IMHO, it is the PAC jet that has plagued this season. We are going to have cold around moving forward, and the storm track will not be suppressed. This is actually the pattern that I expected for the first half, but it took the Pacific awhile to cooperate and arrange accordingly.
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Not an ideal set up for a big one because that pattern can be prone to gradient saturation, but if you time things right, you can steal a big kahuna redeveloper.....worst case, it is an active look.
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I also remember that there was one juggernaut of an event in March that just barely whiffed us, and crushed the maritimes.
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That winter is kind of a blur to me bc I lost my dad in early March 2014, but I do remember it being relatively disappointing IMBY, despite an overall good look. March was cold and dry....I remember at least one moderate hit in February.
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He should do well, but if I had to pick a poster to congratulate, it would be Jeff.
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Yea, very reasonable post. It should get better, especially for NE....just don't expect a top 10 season.
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I have a feeling latitude will be a valuable commodity for the balance of this winter.
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With an NAO, some of those will be late-bloomer redevelopers, too......good pattern the further NE one goes.
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See, here is the thing....3-5" before a bit of sleet and rain is an issue I'd rather deal with, than 3-5 posts per week due to a mid winter drought.
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Something will change....storms will go from being squashed to cutting. Should be okay here with SWFE, but glad we don't live there.
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The PNA has really thrown me for a loop....I was ass backwards. Thought it would be negative early on, then trend more positively....opposite.
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You are about to snap....just let go and melt...its healthy.
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To this point, it hasn't been cold....I'm not sure how that is lost on you.
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Yea, in Madrid.
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All sarcasm aside.....I think if the 1/20 threat fails to produce a widespread warning event and there is nothing else imminent, then it's fair to really question some of the more optimistic ideologies in relation to this season. Getting close to shit or get off of the pot time....bad luck or not. Those backloaded seasons that really turn around tend do it by around the 20th, give or take....I'll bet against February 1969 walking through the door.
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Yet there is no cold....neat trick.
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What a sourdough fetish...
