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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Dude, 'cmon...I wanted to wait on the weenie subscription...you are trying a guy's resolve.
  2. I expected a mismatch period, but not one the magnitude of 2017 and 2020, which also encompassed December...I bit on a more tempered version like Jan 2022. We'll see. 2020 was one of the elite QBO analogs I selected, so there is that.
  3. Yea, I totally agree with you....just some light-hearted ribbing.
  4. Read my mind...if its there this weekend, then I'll jump...but I am a really tough sell pre 12/1...especially in light of recent month of December.
  5. All kidding aside, first crucial inflection point this winter will be whether or not that pattern is fleeting or has staying power.
  6. Cue @bluewavewithin an hour or two to post some vp plots of the south Pacific and explain why winter will be over by 12/6.
  7. No...we'd probably benefit like within a week after it falls.
  8. My area on the CP is usually pretty palatable...even last season, as dreadful as that was, I still ended up well over 30".
  9. Yes, fire danger extinguishing and drought busting are two entirely discrete concepts.
  10. At this point, anything qualifying as a "drought bustrer" would entail fooding, ironically enough. If we don't flood, then we aren't busting shit.
  11. I was referring to early December...that's it. All of the other times the past couple of years he has been right.
  12. Omega knows his stuff, too tbh....the most effective trollls are the ones who know their stuff.
  13. Maybe winter will suck again, but it won't stay as dry as it has been...take that to the bank.
  14. Well timed....Sept through the first half of November was a perfect time for it.
  15. Okay...looks like ORH it is, but that doesn't preclude some of us from gathering at Clarke's shortly before the holiday....they aren't mutually exclusive. Maybe let @weathafellatake the lead on that. As far as the ORH gathering, I think its safe to move on to settling upon a date because we seem to have a strong concensus already.
  16. I remember last winter I fell for long range guidance and started to think December may be colder than I had originally thought....not that it can't happen this season, but the moral of the story is that in this modern climate, one should be skeptical of sustained cold until you see the whites of the weenie.
  17. Yea, I don't think the cold to begin December should be a suprise to anyone, as there have been hints for awhile now. What happens during the balance of the month is the question.
  18. In late Novemeber, nonetheless....yea, high percentage play.
  19. I'm not inclined to begin the season early for this, as my gut says it finds a way to fail.
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