40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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All good.
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I can't wait for it to snow, so we can stop bickering over dumb shit.
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The warm node that is inducing the melt is propegating throughout the amex weenies....hit me last wknd, now Kev. Maybe you hate to see it, but I don't bc it's funny shit.
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I mean the pattern that was modeled at the onset of the month has verified, not anyone's long range forecast. Everyone's outlook that I know of has missed some aspect of the pattern, agreed...I have missed the Pacific, so far. I'll just agree to disagree on the luck part....we have been through this before, and you have the right to your opinion.
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Remember in Jan 2015...he swore up and down that all we would get that season was nickels and dimes....100" in 30 days later lol Someone found a couch with a shitload of change lol
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Not even close......though snowfall isn't too far off, at the moment.
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It was cold enough for snow if we got an event that tracked decently. We did not.
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I hear you, and I am sick of potential, too....but the January pattern has verified as planned. This isn't last year where it vanished.
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No....early Jan was always serviceable, but it didn't work out. Don't confuse that with the pattern not materializing bc it did...we just didn't get snow. The great pattern moved from maybe the 15th to the 20th, but no more than that.
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Do you love his sexy ways?
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Persistence until mid week next week is what we have all been saying all month, you clown lol One week from today is the 20th.
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Hopefully a snowy cinema for once-
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Yea, they are a system...all I was getting at was differentiating between this, and the S displaced block scenario that we had before.
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Its both...one risk is suppression from the block-50/50 low...the other is compression between the se ridge and the -NAO attenuating the wave.
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Man, that Jan 2011 HECS had a lot go right.
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I know that, but its not like its block displaced to the south, as was the issue earlier this season. Literally speaking, its technically the 50/50 low..I guess you could move the NAO block even further north, but then you are risking a later transfer. Pattern is flawed, but it can work.
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Yea, I will take the suppression risk because the alternative is a non-starter SWFE or even rainer...I get it.
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I think the 50/50 low is more of a problem than the NAO block....
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This month is what January 2011 would have looked like had it tried to read one of Tip's posts through to the end.
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Compromise of the EURO and GFS would be good.
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Posts aren't about the stupid 16-17 event....that's all I'm not invested in.
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Like the GFS, its doesn't redevelop fast enough.
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Man, I haven't see @dryslot this distraught quite possibly ever. You even so much as reference a favorable modeling scenario, and he chucks one at you lol
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The parent low to the north is from the original energy, but the NAO block, 50/50 low forces the energy to transfer to the south. The GFS does it late in the game for us, so you see the closed H5 low still waaaay north, as the surface tries to get going south of NE.....if you loop the run, they will eventually stack out near the maratimes. We want that to happens faster to the south of LI.
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This looks like a pattern of energy dumping west due to the RNA, the the NAO block forcing coastal redevelopment. Should be more favorable the further NE one is....late bloomer. GFS looks like more SWFE because they don't get going soon enough, but not important, right now.
