40/70 Benchmark

I'm not implying that you are too intense, just that you seem to be preoccupied with that HC phenomenon....we all get it. Its a thing that is at least partially responsible for the modulation of the atmosphere over time, but the fact that stronger la nina events are hostile for major east coast snow storms is not a novel concept.

Jesus, John, I'm not refuting anything. I'm merely suggesting that the HC, while it doesn't help, is not the reason mod-strong la ninas are unfavorable for big east coast snowstorms. Its always been the case and always will be. What did you do, sleep with the dude who wrote that paper? Holy shit....its okay if you did, no one this day and age would view you differently.

Safest bet for some snow maybe to just EPO load a cold air mass, ditch the NAO block, and slam the storm to the west and into the cold. SWFE.

Problem is that you have a huge 50/50 low that just sits in place, and a se ridge beneath that....so even if the system avoids getting squashed south by the 50/50, you still need to hope the gradient between the se ridge and the 50/50 low doesn't grind it to shit. You can console yourself by wondering how every wave can be suppressed with a se ridge in place, but at the end of the say, its not the only issue.

That fast flow inherent of mod-strong la nina events made major east coast snow storms a rare commodity long before the Hadley Cell began expanding.

Yea, because tomorrow's rainer is squashed under us through NNE.

EPS/GEFS/GEPS verbatim to me all look like to have just about everything post rainer squashed out underneath us.

Obviously "favorable" periods work out more relative to unfavorable periods. Vast majority was hyperbole, but a relatively significant percentage of favorable patterns just don't work out.

I could also put things into perspective by pointing out that I had more snow a year ago, and ended up 20" below average. lol I agree it looks better, though....I just think we are nearing the point where most need it to stop looking better and actually be better.

Too bad we didn't have a PNA ridge because 1/23 and on is a HECS waiting to happen with all of that energy N of Maine.......just no vehicle to drive it south, so it may just act to squash things.

I will say, viewing the 19th system on the EPS, H5 looks intriguing enough that I would have expected a more eventful surface reflection.

I will add, though, that this is a more prominent issue in moderate to strong la ninas because the Pacific flow is so prevalent. This is why I didn't forecast a HECS this season, though that Dec system arguably qualifies due to the early PNA/NAO couplet. While its tough to explicitly predict during any given system, there are certain ENSO states in which one can anticipate this being more of a seasonal theme.

Yea, I didn't counter because I'm not invested in this next rainer, but I saw some claiming it should trend east due to the block. The block relents a bit, before regrouping due to the wavebreak resulting from that system. I pointed that out in my Monday blog. Luck, chaos, whatever you want to call it....having the block briefly loosen its grip at precisely the wrong time, and then not having the follow up system able to amplify bc of the wave spacing with the lead rainer is atmospheric chaos that it tough to predict, or attribute to the pattern.

Any type of forecast at 2-5 months lead is obscenely difficult....realistically speaking, obviously you want it to work out as speculated in terms of snowfall, but at the end of the day, all that can really be expected from that range to approximate the general pattern. The snowfall part is just too dependent on shortwave chaos.

I have always thought that we are in for a good stretch....nothing historic, but I would be pretty shocked if this season went on to be a ratter.

Of course, the rainer is the one that prevails....

I think that makes sense....last year once we hit like mid January, I just checked out because I knew what we were working with by that point. Its also tougher for me to do that now bc I have so much down time at work these days.....a month from now, I'll be able to dive into fantasy baseball mode. Defending a title isn't easy, and need prep time lol

I'm okay with him...its usually not at a busy time of day, and he's never malicious. But I get why patience is thin with that crap when its busier.

Regardless of what happens, you did a good job of identifying a relatively favorable period.....problem is that the vast majority of favorable periods don't work out.

Agree

All good.

I can't wait for it to snow, so we can stop bickering over dumb shit.

The warm node that is inducing the melt is propegating throughout the amex weenies....hit me last wknd, now Kev. Maybe you hate to see it, but I don't bc it's funny shit.

I mean the pattern that was modeled at the onset of the month has verified, not anyone's long range forecast. Everyone's outlook that I know of has missed some aspect of the pattern, agreed...I have missed the Pacific, so far. I'll just agree to disagree on the luck part....we have been through this before, and you have the right to your opinion.

Remember in Jan 2015...he swore up and down that all we would get that season was nickels and dimes....100" in 30 days later lol Someone found a couch with a shitload of change lol