40/70 Benchmark

I was speaking about winter in that post.

I still think I'm fine even with a cold first week of December because the warmth period mid month will overshadow the cold...the key will be how long the warmth persists.

I see the EURO already lost the 1899 blizzard redux.

If it does continue, then my December forecast is cooked every bit as much as the past couple of winters.

I have always maintained that the globe will ultimately find a means of achieving some semblance of balance.

Other guidance has simply closed the gap, which is causing some overreactions.

I thought it would be like 0.9...wow.

I miss that kind of cold.....as much as it would elicit a quite a bout of murmured cursing at 44yo, I do miss it.

I'm concerned about the EPO...if we get a -EPO to consistently link up with the -WPO, which is high confidence for me, in the seasonal mean, then I am going to bust a bit too warm and defenitely not snowy enough. I forecasted a bit of a disconnect there in that lower heights will periodically infiltrate at least the eastern portion of AK.

I am still willing to bet that Dec 1-15 averages above normal and probably significantly so.

Well, if he said that, then I would agree....the original focus was on November. I still think in the aggregate December will be warm...it just looks better if we cash in on that brief window to start the month.

You do realize having November shot in SNE is simply climo, right? The month averages like 2-3" over the interior....

I didn't go that warm in February...+1 to +3 with near normal snowfall.

Yea, that is what Bluewave said. I expected late November and the onse tof December to perhaps be wintry, but expect it to shift warmer within the first severday days. Balance of November-December 2024 Outlook December Analogs: 2022, 2021,1999 The mild pattern currently in place with the approach of mid-November is being driven by phase 2 of the MJO. This warmer pattern should remain in place until about Thanksgiving week, when the passage of the MJO into phase 3 may herald in a colder, and more festive pattern. Long range guidance is beginning to detect that +PNA/-NAO driven regime towards the holiday, which would result in at least colder weather and potentially even the first snowflakes for some locales. The colder pattern looks to be fleeting, as the month of December should turn very mild in short order with the passage of the MJO in phase 4. The mild regime should remain in place until at the very least mid month. The first bonafide stretch of wintry weather looks to hold off until at least mid month for most locales. The polar vortex appears rather unremarkable through the balance of most of November and it would not be surprising for it to even weaken for a time later in the month of December. While the pattern appears variable throughout much of the month of December, the warmth should be much greater in magnitude than the cold and much of the period(s) of polar blocking will be mitigated by an adjoining southeast ridge. Drier than average conditions in conjunction with the anomalous warmth should help to keep snowfall at a premium across much of the region. The appreciable cold periods will be primarily -WPO driven, per the above composite. Temperatures across the mid Atlantic and New England should range anywhere from 3-5F degrees above average.

Right....which is why I don't get the semantics crap.

Congrats, Tip

Yea, same page.

You are absurd. The month in the aggregate was a dry torch...that is the point.

Well, when the past several have occurred within same MC dominant regime they do.

I appreciate the objectivity in the flavor of your posts.....whereas the knock on some of the guys in here is that they only report data that caters to perceived bias.

Dude, really....its the last day of the month

F5 is going to have SV speed of availability rather shortly...FYI.

This would be as large of a mismatch as seeing a guy from these forums with a gal under his arm.

People just scavening for T-Day leftovers in snowdrifts.