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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, don't sleep on anything several days out in this pattern....but I doubt it. Def. not an unreasonable position to imply it bares watching for a light event.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the ceiling is very high, but the floor is far more likely. At the moment, I lean towards a whiff, or light to moderate event......but yes. The threat is very viable, but we need a break...and in this N stream dominant pattern, you may not know that the break is coming until you see the whites of its eyes....like 72-84 hours out.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This incoming pattern seems to me as though the N stream just can not dig quite enough due to the RNA out west. The result is that everything phases and congeals to our NE. Best bet is probably either hoping for a brief PNA nod timed well with the passage of N steam wave, or waiting until the pattern begins to break down nearer the end of the month. The latter seems more likely.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still fell like we will get a moderate event before month's end, but am not confident.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I did not. All I ever said was 1/22ish was the first bonafide threat....I never guaranteed anything. Many bonafide threats fail to produce.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I see nothing through at least 1/26.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he is such trying to present all of the data in order to refute the notion that he's biased. It's up in the air (no pun intended) with the ultimate impact will be.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    He told me earlier this this wknd he has been getting trolled.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The NAO block could completely break down, and we could still get a decent event(s) in Feb...hell, I remember we stole a mod event in Feb 2018, while I was in Uganda. Look at Feb 2006...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just a cautionary note...I would not be issuing kudos to anyone, right now, just as I was puzzled why some where high-fiving the Jan 2011 vibe back near New Year....the tenor of the season changes so fast. There remains a path to a season altering event as we near peak climo.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, too early to call that. I agree. NAO certainly been negative with normal to slightly below snowfall, so far.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to my knowledge....just Tom and I.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I predicted blocking (often east-based) from Dec into a portion of January, and slightly below avg snowfall....blocking will likely persist a bit longer than I had thought, though.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    What exactly does the NAM entail? I haven't used that....is it like North American Angular Momentum?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Apparently some need a reminder. Have a good holiday weekend.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I meant. .....like 4-8"....even 6-12" maybe pushing it.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Warning event is a HECS? I'm done for a few days....man.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I do not. I said I favor a significant event before end of January....I do not favor big events this season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tom, are you getting uneasy about your Feb call? Starting to look like the PV may not recover for at least through early Feb....
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    God helps us-
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seriously, how many buns would you or I get if we locked in a long range blizzard on the 18z GFS lol
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Who cares about the day 14 GFS OP
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