40/70 Benchmark

If end up with climo snowfall, and get 80% of it in a two week stretch, that is pissah IMO.

I think that will be a light to mod event....29th is what I would hype.

If you are holding out hope for a big fish, 1/29 offers the most hope......here is a portion of my blog from yesterday. Perhaps the next chance for a major storm along northeast coast will be near the end of January, as heights over the western US, at least temporarily, rise. The primary issue looks to be just how long the higher heights to the west last, as a disturbance referred to as a "kicker" looks to enter the Pacific northwest and lower heights again. Thereafter, we watch and await the recovery of the polar vortex as we enter February-

Yea, that what I have favored....if you are looking for near climo, don't worry.....Jan 2011 has problems.

Its usually out of mine....then folks downwell through the stairs

I just wish the heat flux would stop propagating into MBY.

My hope for this season is to grab two mod events the last week of January, maybe 12" in Feb and 12" in March...call it a season.

I def. wouldn't expect Feb 1969 in a mod la nina, though....that was a weak el nino. I don't know that we have ever had a "big" second half in a mod-strong la nina peak season.

Not that it can't still work out...part of me feels like February will invent ways to snow even if the pattern fades.

I mentioned Jan '69 to you and Scott via text this wknd ha. RNA, baby.

This is why I said last month that I would pass on the SSW. If it doesn't evolve in a favorable manner, then it can ruin the entire season by bottling cold on the other side of the globe and stagnating the MJO on the worse phases....this also happened in 2019. The spontaneous ejaculations of winter enthusiasts at the mere mention of this poorly understood phenomenon needs to stop.

Frankly, I don't even care to read through this, but that fact that you are agreeing with him is good enough for me. I'll defer to the fact that he is mathematically correct, but it has been a rare climatological feat over the past century or so. That is good enough for me. I'm not saying to base an outlook on that, but if there is no overwhelming signal, then it would tip the scale for me.

Last week of January and potentially first week of Feb for decent (not expecting a real big dog) snows...after that, all bets are off, as it may be getting hostile.

Yea, hard sell on that.

EPS looks decent for the 26th, albeit still a bit suppressed. I really like the last week of January post 1/25, after the pattern peaks, for several inches of snow. Both 1/26 and especially 1/29 viable threats. Sell this week-

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. There is a reason we average what we do.....odds are against sub par seasons several years in a row. Fact, not opinion.

I hope that continues....no storms, I have no use for bitter cold.

Yes, and your uncle can sprout a vag, but odds are against it without surgical assist.

More quiet times ahead for at least the next week, I fear, as an active N branch continues to be inhibited by the lower heights out west. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/active-northern-stream-pattern.html

I only have one stretch of four consecutive below avg snowfall seasons on record, so call it whatever the hell you want.

It's a frustrating catch 22....we need the N stream energy to phase w the Pac energy, but the N stream can't dig enough to hit us bc of all the energy out west. Yea, can do it with all N stream, but it still needs to dig...otherwise we just see that strange cat in New Foundland making more nude youtube videos.

Personally, if the N stream can't dig, I'd just assume recover the PV and be done with it. I don't think anyone yearns for Jan 2004 with bare ground. Pack it up, and take my chances next season after four consecutive years with below avg snowfall. I like my odds next year in that case, statistically speaking.

Although I feel like we have seen stretches of +NAM last longer than 3 months often the past several years.

Oh, agreed. Question is do we steal a week or two in early Feb...I think maybe a week.

I think the threat near the end of the month has the best shot to dig because heights in the west begin to elevate a bit.