40/70 Benchmark

I get what you mean, but I think Steve would tell you himself that if you call for a top 5 snowy month, and its nearly snowless.....its a whiff. Some busted calls are more egregious than others, and he certainly correctly identified a decent look this month.

I am a lot more optimistic for the first week or two of Feb, so hopefully our original ideas can meet in the middle and salvage a decent winter.

Completely agree. The random OP cutter runs are fraudulent. For the folks like @Damage In Tolland who are frustrated, and favor persistence.....you need a smoking gun to buy into change. I think the elevating PNA next week is it.

Euro porks me and nails most of sne on 26th....probably right.

GEFS is more miller B, which probably makes more sense.

That is the one to watch.

Yea, I don't see a rainer.

S shore had the most....down near Norwell, Pembroke and Marshfield was ground zero.

NAO south again.

Yea, PNA is still negative circa 1/29, but it nears neutral and it looks as though what ridging there is will be very well positioned. I'll bet the big Feb 1969 and Jan 2011 events had something similar.

I could def. see that.....looking more hopeful we can hold a decent pattern into a significant portion of Feb. I think 30 is too aggressive, but maybe 15-20.

Exactly.

If end up with climo snowfall, and get 80% of it in a two week stretch, that is pissah IMO.

I think that will be a light to mod event....29th is what I would hype.

If you are holding out hope for a big fish, 1/29 offers the most hope......here is a portion of my blog from yesterday. Perhaps the next chance for a major storm along northeast coast will be near the end of January, as heights over the western US, at least temporarily, rise. The primary issue looks to be just how long the higher heights to the west last, as a disturbance referred to as a "kicker" looks to enter the Pacific northwest and lower heights again. Thereafter, we watch and await the recovery of the polar vortex as we enter February-

Yea, that what I have favored....if you are looking for near climo, don't worry.....Jan 2011 has problems.

Its usually out of mine....then folks downwell through the stairs

I just wish the heat flux would stop propagating into MBY.

My hope for this season is to grab two mod events the last week of January, maybe 12" in Feb and 12" in March...call it a season.

I def. wouldn't expect Feb 1969 in a mod la nina, though....that was a weak el nino. I don't know that we have ever had a "big" second half in a mod-strong la nina peak season.

Not that it can't still work out...part of me feels like February will invent ways to snow even if the pattern fades.

I mentioned Jan '69 to you and Scott via text this wknd ha. RNA, baby.

This is why I said last month that I would pass on the SSW. If it doesn't evolve in a favorable manner, then it can ruin the entire season by bottling cold on the other side of the globe and stagnating the MJO on the worse phases....this also happened in 2019. The spontaneous ejaculations of winter enthusiasts at the mere mention of this poorly understood phenomenon needs to stop.

Frankly, I don't even care to read through this, but that fact that you are agreeing with him is good enough for me. I'll defer to the fact that he is mathematically correct, but it has been a rare climatological feat over the past century or so. That is good enough for me. I'm not saying to base an outlook on that, but if there is no overwhelming signal, then it would tip the scale for me.

Last week of January and potentially first week of Feb for decent (not expecting a real big dog) snows...after that, all bets are off, as it may be getting hostile.